Trump encourages Zogby to increase his popularity rating by 10 points



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Despite signs of a slowing economy, reputable polls show that President Donald Trump's approval rate is down. Trump reacted this week by repeatedly criticizing an unsavory poll of Zogby which sets its approval rate at 51%.

Trump, who ran this week as "the chosen one", seems constitutionally incapable of accepting the fact that he is not as popular as he thinks himself. And in those moments, its destiny is to attack the media and choose data that look forward to the most favorable light.

"Despite the false news and polls!", Trump said Friday morning on Twitter, referring to the Zogby number on Twitter for the second time this week.

Zogby, however, is not a reliable sounder. This is because the firm, which is looking to the right and Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight, once described as the "worst sonarist in the world", is not transparent about its methodology.

This problem is apparent in the poll that Trump has boasted many times this week. The "Zogby Analytics Survey Methodology" page simply states that Zogby "conducted an online survey of 897 likely voters in the United States," but does not detail how the sample was chosen. And given the quirky state of its findings on Trump's approval rating versus other polls, it seems Zogby's sample contains more Trump supporters than a company would find in an organization. truly representative of the electorate.

"Zogby Analytics has proven itself in remarkably inaccurate screening polls," said Jon Krosnick, a professor at Stanford University, when the Atlantic proposed Zogby polls in October 2015, noting that the poor performance resulted from nonrandom sampling.

Trump's approval rating is actually well below 51%

Zogby's poll is extremely absurd. A CNN poll released on Wednesday set Trump's approval at 40 percent, with 54 percent disapproval. FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator sets it at 42%, with 54% disapproval. The average poll of RealClearPolitics is 43%, with 54% disapproval. Zogby, on the other hand, estimates that Trump's disapproval is only 47%.

Trump will have a hard time winning a second term if his approval number remains stuck at 40% or just above. A poll by Fox News earlier this month illustrates this dynamic – it revealed that Trump interviewed less than 40% of people in face-to-face clashes with each of the four current leaders of the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.


Fox News

Trump was asked about the Fox News poll during his media visit ending the holiday on Sunday. His answer said a lot. While Trump's surprising victory in 2016 could give him a base for skepticism, he did not even seem interested in tackling the survey's implications. Instead, he categorically dismissed it, saying, "I do not believe it" because "wherever I go, we have lines on the outside".

At another point, Trump suggested that Fox News – which devotes hours of its programming every day to defending it – is part of a plot to knock it down.

"Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been Fox, "he said. "There's something going on at the Fox, I'll tell you right now. And I'm not happy with that. "

Trump usually rejects the polls he likes – even when they come from his own campaign

When internal polls from the Trump campaign revealing that President Troll behind Democratic leader Joe Biden in key battlefield states were leaked to the media in June, Trump reacted in the same way as last week – tweeting an unsavory poll of Rasmussen showing his approval rate at 50 percent.

As Philip Bump detailed on Friday for the Washington Post, Trump's actually never tweeted poll indicating him an approval rate lower than 5 points above his average in RealClearPolitics:

Trump tweeted about his popularity rating more than 40 times as president, either by citing the numbers he's seeing or by retweeting other people. Its number is still higher than the average RealClearPolitics, ranging from 5 to 10 points. (On average, his numbers are about 7.6 points higher, if you're wondering.) But even for Trump, who chooses the numbers he wants from the polls that come his way, his approval rate did not really move much.

In these 42 tweets, Trump's approval has never been less than 45% nor greater than 53%. In the average RealClearPolitics, Trump has never exceeded 46% – and never less than 37%.

It may not be a coincidence that Trump revealed at one of his rallies last year that his poll theory was that traditional polls underestimated his approval by about 10 percentage points because people did not want to admit publicly that they supported him.

"An engineering analyst said," but he has at least 10% of people who do not want to say that they vote for him. "And you know what I'm saying to that – we'll take them anyway" Trump m said. "It does not matter what you need."


The new advance quickly. To stay up to date, follow Aaron Rupar on Twitter, and read more Political and political coverage of Vox.

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