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After the Trump-backed candidate was defeated in the second round of Texas’ 6th Congressional District elections this week, the pressure is now on the former president to prove his approval – one of his most powerful tools in the world. within the Republican Party – still has significant influence over the GOP. primary.
It’s a crowded race, with nearly a dozen Republicans still vying for the seat of Congress. This has led several Republican operatives, both in Ohio and nationally, to speculate that it’s entirely possible for Trump’s candidate to lose the primary – and to recognize that another loss for Trump would hurt to his reputation as a republican kingmaker. It could also be personally frustrating for Trump, a politician who regularly bragged as president about the high winning percentage of Republicans he supported in primaries.
“These specials are volatile,” said a senior Republican strategist who has worked on House races. “People don’t know these guys either. There isn’t a lot of attention.… They have to make sure their message really gets through. And that’s hard to do.”
On the ground, Republican agents not aligned with a candidate as well as those working for a campaign recognize that while Trump’s approval is powerful, it is diluted by the size of the field, the fact that the candidates have only had three. months or so to campaign and the reality that nearly every candidate in the race ties into Trump’s message.
“Obviously, Trump’s endorsement is a big boost for Carey,” said a leading strategist for Ruth Edmonds, a black Republican who is running as a candidate in Trump’s lineage. “But that’s not such a big factor, as you can already see from what happened in Texas the other day, and there are so many contenders in this race.”
The strategist also noted that most voters are simply not engaged in the election, with Edmonds’ campaign expecting around 40,000 people to vote in the primary. In the 2020 general election, more than 380,000 votes were cast in the District Chamber race.
“We are looking at a race with a very, very low participation rate,” said the strategist. “So does Trump’s approval matter? Obviously. But it’s not the end of the world, especially in a race like this.”
Jeff LaRe, a member of the Ohio House of Representatives candidate for the primary, admitted this in a statement to CNN.
“I’m certainly honored to have many mentions in this race, but at the end of the day I’m Jeff LaRe,” said the nominee. “There are real people in this race, and I think it’s about getting my point across, letting people know who I am and what I stand for as I make my way to Washington.”
Despite Trump’s involvement, top Republicans did not rally around Carey, or a single alternative. Stivers, for example, backed LaRe, calling the former sheriff’s deputy a “conservative leader.”
But Sen. Rand Paul, the Republican of Kentucky and frequent Trump ally, backs Ron Hood, a former state official who launched Paul’s crusade against Dr.Anthony Fauci, the chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden. And behind Edmonds, former Columbus NAACP chairman and Conservative activist, is Debbie Meadows, wife of former Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows.
Such an open and divided primary within his greater circle of influence could pose an existential threat to Trump.
“Facebook is where a huge amount of rural Ohio gets their news. It’s just a rurality,” said Colton Henson, an unaligned Republican agent who lives in the congressional district. “So it’s been even more difficult (for Trump) because the average 65-year-old woman who’s a retired school worker or factory worker, she’s on Facebook and Trump’s website isn’t just not viewed by the average voter. ”
Henson said Trump’s endorsement “means a lot to voters who know it,” but with all the other candidates in the race boasting of being Trump-aligned candidates, there is “a lot of confusion” among those in the race. voters.
“If you’re a voter who wants to follow President Trump’s orders on this, the other candidates have deliberately made it more difficult,” Henson said.
It’s a big buy in a special election – and Ohio Republicans said it could make a difference on Tuesday – but the most striking finding, they said, might be how it shows that Trump and those close to him do not want to suffer another loss.
“One of Trump’s biggest ‘sticks’ is the ability to influence the Republican primaries,” said Matt Gorman, Republican strategist and former senior communications official on the Republican National Committee of Congress. “He has to keep that ability intact. Ohio is a huge test for that.”
Some Republican agents, however, cautioned against reading too much in two special elections in congressional races, given the lack of attention given to each contest.
“I imagine the Trump world is going to double this week, so they don’t have an egg in their face,” the strategist said.
The former president released another statement on Carey on Wednesday, calling him a “true champion” who “is doing very well against the RINOs gang in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District.”
Trump also sought to boost Carey at a recent rally in Wellington, Ohio, an event aimed at supporting fellow congressional candidate Max Miller in his quest to oust Representative Anthony Gonzalez, who voted to impeach Trump earlier. This year.
“He’s a wonderful man,” Trump said at the event. “I’ve known him for a long time, Mike Carey.
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