WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump is lagging behind leading Democratic candidates, according to early tests of the NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll on the 2020 general election.
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the president with 9 points of electors registered, between 51% and 42% – outside the polling margin of error of more than 3.5 percentage points.
Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Devance Trump by 7 points, from 50% to 43%.
Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Has a 5-point advantage, from 48% to 43%.
And Senator Kamala Harris, D-Calif., Has only 1 point, between 45% and 44% – a jump ball.
With more than 200 days before Iowa caucuses and more than 470 days before polling day, the ballot is a very early snapshot of the general election and many things can change.
But Trump is not as good as Barack Obama at this stage of his race for reelection.
In the NBC / WSJ poll of August 2011, Obama had a one-point advantage over Mitt Romney, a GOP candidate, among registered voters, or 46% to 45%.
Obama ended up winning the legislative elections by 4 points, or 51% to 47%.
Decompose a Trump race against Biden
Biden's biggest lead over Trump is due in large part to the higher performance of the former vice president among independent voters, whites and suburban residents compared to the rest of the Democrats group.
In a Trump contest against Biden, the president has the advantage over men (51% to 42%), white voters (50% to 43%) and whites without a university degree (56% to 37%).
Biden, meanwhile, is leading African-American voters (85% to 9%), women (59% to 34%), suburban voters (49% to 43%) and independents (45% in 41%).
However, against the other three Democrat candidates, Trump heads independent and suburban voters, and his advantage with white voters is double-digit.
Trump's job rating is 45%
President Trump's employment score in the survey is essentially equal to his percentages in these hypothetical 2020 confrontations.
Forty-five percent of registered voters approve of the president's work, while 52 percent disapprove – which is largely unchanged from the latest NBC / WSJ polls.
The best figures for Trump are Republicans (89% approve), rural voters (62%), men (53%), people aged 50 to 64 (53%) and whites (52%).
His worst numbers are Democrats (barely 7% agree), African Americans (18%), Latinos (29%), women (38%) and voters aged 18 to 34 (32%).
The NBC / WSJ poll was held from July 7 to 9 on 800 registered voters – more than half by mobile phone – and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.