Trump is trying to upset the 2020 map

President Donald Trump targets a trio of states he lost in 2016, to widen the path to re-election as he struggles in the state of Rust Belt that propelled him to the White House.

Trump officials focus on New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire, where they insist that there is an opening despite the heavy losses suffered by Republicans mid-term. They deployed about half a dozen staff members in New Hampshire and several others in Nevada, an unusually early investment in pro-democrat countries. And the campaign is conducting surveys to determine Trump's level of support in New Mexico, a point of contact for campaign manager Brad Parscale, and they discussed sending blue state aids.

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This maneuver shows how much Trump is trying to capitalize on his immense financial and organizational advantage over the Democrats. But it also shows how the president, whose own polls show he's late in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, is looking for new ways for a second term.

During conversations on Air Force One and at the White House, Parscale told Trump that it was imperative that he be competitive in the states he had lost in 2016.

"Every presidential candidate needs several ways to get 270 electoral votes. Last time, they had a way and it worked. But as no one can come to the table every time, it's better to have more than one of 270 routes, "said Republican strategist Karl Rove, who, as the architect of George W. Bush's reelection for 2004, ensured the success of the victory of several states. years earlier.

"Even when reelected, you can not rely on what you have done before," added Rove. "Sometimes the nature of the opposing candidate changes the playing field, opening up possibilities and closing others."

Nevertheless, considerable skepticism that Trump can play a serious role in the states – especially Nevada and New Mexico. The Republicans have not won any presidential races in Nevada or New Mexico since 2004 and the last time they won New Hampshire in 2000, the Democrats won all the races held in New York. Mexico last year. in Nevada they held a seat in the Senate as well as the governorship. In New Hampshire, Democrats took control of both legislative chambers.

Trump's unpopularity was an important factor in this success, say the Democrats.

"In the last cycle, Democrats crushed Republicans in these states by highlighting the toxic health care agenda and broken promises of President Trump, which is why he will lose them again in 2020," said David. Bergstein, spokesperson for the National Democratic Committee. "Although we do not take anything for granted, this GOP strategy seems to be already preoccupied with a realistic path to 270 electoral votes."

Trump employees admit that they are at a disadvantage in each of the three states, which has a total of 15 votes. (By comparison, Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, Michigan's 16 and Wisconsin's 10.) But the reasons for these initial investments are well founded: Trump lost Nevada and New Hampshire narrowly in 2016, and the three states are small and relatively easy. organize in.

In Nevada and New Mexico, Trump officials have been encouraged by internal polls showing growing support from Latin Americans over 2016, which they attributed to Hispanics who agree with the crackdown on President against illegal immigration, among other factors.

"Hispanics say," I support the president. "It's something I did not understand three years ago – it was a pretty tough line in the sand," said Steve Pearce, president of the New Mexico GOP and former congressman. "If he hits 35%, 38%, 40% of the Hispanic population, he will win New Mexico."

Pearce is remembered having spoken with Trump of New Mexico at a White House party last year and stated that it was obvious that the President "had understood the value of our five [electoral] votes. "

The interest in the New Mexico campaign stems in part from the president's rally in February, just across the state border in El Paso, Texas. Helps discovered that about 70% of online enrollees were Hispanic and many of them came from southern New Mexico.

Others on Trump's political orbit are also interested in the state. Last week, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, father of White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, wrote an article. column in which he suggested that the policy implications of newly elected Democratic governor Michelle Lujan Grisham could create an opening for Republicans.

"I'm sorry for the people of New Mexico, but I hope they learned their lesson," wrote Huckabee. "Maybe next time they go to the polls, they will not say, 'Thank you, sir, can I have another?' "And fill the circles" D "again."

Republicans in Nevada, meanwhile, were struck by the campaign's decision to orchestrate a rapid deployment on the ground. Additional staff members are expected this month.

"It's a winnable state and they believe it's winnable otherwise they would not be on the ground. If I remember correctly, we have never started a presidential election so far, "said former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, one of Trump's supporters from a prominent Nevada political family. "They have the habit of parachuting during the election year, spring spring," added Laxalt, who, like Pearce, has unsuccessfully presented to the governorship last year.

The optimism of the Trump campaign in New Hampshire is based on the belief that the party's infrastructure will be entirely behind the president. In 2016, Trump campaigned without the support of then-GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte, while then-GOP President Jennifer Horn criticized Trump for leading a "superficial" campaign. .

Since then, pro-Trump forces have taken control of the State party. Stephen Stepanek, a former state legislator and long-time Trump supporter, was named president earlier this year.

"We did not have a united party behind Donald Trump, our candidate, in 16," Stepanek said. "And that will not be the case in 2020."

Trump's aides say he's watching other states he lost in 2016, including Minnesota and Colorado. Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, has launched an aggressive effort to break into Virginia, where officials from across the Democratic Party have suffered a series of scandals. Pence has visited Virginia many times since the end of March and on Thursday he is scheduled to attend a D-Day memorial event in the conservative county of Bedford.

Trump campaigners downplayed concerns over the Rust Belt, saying the campaign was confident that the president would triumph again. But Scott Jennings, George W. Bush's former political assistant at the White House, spoke of another incitement to competition in the blue states: compel Democrats to play the role of defender.

"I think the Trump campaign is smart to try to open up new avenues at the Electoral College, even if you believe the probability of winning a card stretcher is low," Jennings said. "The race will be tight and you have to work from every angle."