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President Trump intensifies his attacks on immigration. It then eliminates a threat of closure of the southern border of the country in response to a problem that is worsening more and more. He resumed his attack on the Affordable Care Act, which was thwarted by a democratic law that has been gaining popularity since taking office. And he is stepping up his complaints about unfair business practices – even though he was presiding over a rising trade deficit that he had promised to eliminate.
The key themes of Trump's victory in 2016 are again the pillars of his 2020 campaign, centered on a populist message sensing the dangers of lax immigration policy, socialist health plans and threats external economies. He returned to similar topics several times throughout his presidency, helping him retain a solid base of Republican support.
But Trump's dark warnings pose a crucial problem for his reelection effort: can he win a second White House victory by denouncing the problems he promised to solve?
Trump's allies are betting that the strategy will work again by reinforcing the enthusiasm of its most fervent supporters, especially the oldest white voters in the Upper Midwest who won last time. But this approach is also likely to alienate moderate voters in the suburbs, including those who have tried their luck in Trump's candidacy in hopes that his negotiating character will overcome Washington's stalemate.
"The bet they make is still the same – that it 's a basic election, not an election based on persuasion, and that' s what they are doing. he is therefore attacking his key problems, "said Doug Heye, a former spokesman for the Republican House. the leadership and the Republican National Committee. "The challenge they face is that it's a very thin needle. There is not much room for error. "
Kayleigh McEnany, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, said the president had a wide range of achievements to defend in his reelection record, a speech that she expected both from Trump and from the campaign.
"President Trump has delivered and will continue to address issues of health care, border security and trade," she said. "Suggest the opposite, it's denying the facts. We will be running on the president's successes on these issues and on a myriad of others. "
Several recent setbacks on these issues illustrate the difficulty Trump may face over the next 19 months, as he tried to bridge the gap between his heated rhetoric and a more complex reality.
At the end of last month, for example, Trump sentenced several of the top advisers when he ordered the Justice Department to join a lawsuit to overturn the health care law called Obamacare, stating that Republicans would write their own substitute.
"We will have a much better plan than Obamacare," Trump promised at the time, adding that Republicans would be "soon recognized as the health care party".
Republican leaders reacted with concern, fearing that health care would be a political loser for them, especially with a Democratic Party-led House that could block any proposal from the People's Party. After a week, Trump gave in, repelling any real action in the health field until 2021.
The president also dismissed his threat to close the border with Mexico, the latest of his many plans to stem the flow of tens of thousands of Central American migrants entering the United States each month.
Six days after tweeting It would close the border "next week" if Mexico "does not immediately halt any illegal immigration entering the United States," announced Thursday that it was warning Mexico with a "warning" that it would "close the border" next week. a year "before moving on to action.
The fall came after Republican leaders and business leaders warned that closing the border would be catastrophic for the economy.
Tim Murtaugh, communications director for the campaign, criticized Democrats' "constant shifting of goals" in areas where the president has made progress that exceeds the goals of his predecessors.
"First, the opponents say," It's something you can not do, "and then the opponents say," You should not have done it, "Murtaugh said. success and they say, "Well, that's not enough."
The Trump campaign is currently conducting an extensive messaging survey to guide its efforts, according to three people familiar with the plan, who spoke about the condition of anonymity to discuss internal operations. In addition to trade, health care and immigration, officials said the campaign would likely focus on economic growth, criminal justice reform and the president's support for Israel.
Campaigners say they have finally trusted Trump's political instinct, although they also admit he sometimes goes too far. However, they say, they can only control what they can – and this does not often include the president.
Trump's allies also evoke the president's unlikely victory over more polite politicians at the 2016 Republican primary and the victory of his constituency against Hillary Clinton as proof of his political sense.
"Voters love disruptions, just as consumers like them," said Bryan Lanza, Trump's 2016 Campaign Advisor. "They actually see him as a disruptor in a broken down system that has not produced results for over 30 years."
Still, some advisors pushed Trump to focus more on a message of economic success. The president, for example, recently visited a General Dynamics tank factory in Lima, Ohio, to talk about the growth of jobs in that state. But his aides and outside advisers were frustrated when he spent part of his speech attacking the late Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.), A screed of anger that made the headlines.
Nevertheless, Heye said that Trump's double backlash on health care and immigration demonstrated his ability to inspire the enthusiasm of his political base while bending to the reality of government.
"What we see quite often with Trump, too, is that he says he's going to do something that he's not going to follow," Heye said. "But the base still gives him the credit of having started this conversation."
With regard to immigration, however, there are signs that some of Trump's most ardent supporters are beginning to be disappointed by the British president's inability to improve the situation that is deteriorating at the border after more than two years in office. . The Department of Homeland Security said last month that he was on the verge of apprehending 100,000 migrants at the border in March, the highest monthly total in 10 years.
Lou Dobbs, the host of Fox Business, a close ally of Trump, recently said the president had kept his campaign promises for 2016 "except with regard to illegal immigration" and border security.
"It's a horrible and growing vulnerability for this president," Dobbs said. "A blatant electoral burden for 2020."
The campaign rejected the idea that Trump is not serious in his efforts to solve the country's immigration problems. The president declared a national emergency at the southern border of the country and took the first veto of his term when Congress passed a bill to annul the declaration. He asked the State Department to cut aid to three Central American countries that are causing many migrants, although many experts believe that this could worsen the situation. . And, argues the campaign, Mexico has started cracking down on caravans of migrants who passed in response to threats from the president.
"I do not think anyone should doubt the president's sincerity when he talks about repairing the immigration system," Murtaugh said.
The growing number of Democrats campaigning to make Mr. Trump a president with a unique mandate sees his radical ideas about immigration as a contradiction to moderate voters. Several pointed to Trump's family separation policy and accused him of racism.
"If we do not call racism, certainly at the highest levels of power, in this position of trust enjoyed by the president, we will continue to suffer the consequences," the Democratic presidential candidate told reporters. , Beto O 'Rourke week after a public meeting in Iowa during which he compared Trump's rhetoric to Nazi Germany.
Seeking to shed light on his immigration record, Trump visited the border on Friday for the third time this year and said "the country was full". The area he visited includes a fence with a plaque calling it a "border wall of President Trump". although it is a replacement fence long planned.
The threat to close Trump's border was made in the tradition of leaders seeking to stir up populist emotions in the electorate without thinking about the consequences of their proposals, said Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a professor at New University. York studying authoritarian rulers.
"Trump will do everything that makes him more popular with his base, and he does not seem to care about the feasibility of this solution as long as it resonates, for the moment, with his base," she said. declared.
The Trump campaign has largely mobilized its efforts to highlight the changes left of the Democrats and to extol the achievements of the president. The president himself often boasts of the strength of the US economy, tax cuts and deregulation under his watch.
"THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS THE PARTY OF THE AMERICAN DREAM!" Tweeted Trump on Thursday.
Trump also hopes to add commercial successes to his list of achievements, with plans to develop a potential trade deal with China in the coming weeks.
The President successfully negotiated an update to the North American Free Trade Agreement, although its ratification is in doubt after House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) It was stated that the agreement had to be reworked. Trump also threatened to blow up part of the deal by adding new car rates if Mexico did not prevent Central American migrants from coming to the United States.
"It's more important to me than the USMCA," Trump said Thursday, using the acronym of the updated trade agreement.
Trump's use of tariffs has done little to improve the US trade deficit on goods, which hit a record $ 891.2 billion in 2018, according to the Commerce Department. After campaigning in 2016 on the promise to fix bad trade deals and reduce the trade deficit, Trump is gearing up for re-election with pretty much the same message.
Some allies believe that it is wise for Trump to choose to campaign on the same issues that he had promised to settle in 2016, thus highlighting the enthusiastic and enthusiastic crowd that the President continues to attract with his "America First" message.
"It's the biggest show in the world," said Lanza. "Why would it be different?"
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