[ad_1]
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, warned Saturday without evidence of a massive stock market crash he was not re-elected in 2020.
"Trump's economy sets records and still has a long way to go," he said. m said. "However, if someone else took over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there would be a stock market crash like we've never seen before! GREAT AMERICA). "
The stock market, a near, but far from perfect, measure of some aspects of the health of the economy, has certainly grown about 27% since the president's inauguration on 20 January 2017, but these gains were disrupted by massive sales caused by fears of trade war amidst tariff struggles with China, Mexico and other countries.
Read more: Follow the evolution of the stock market, the US economy and other key financial indicators since the inauguration of President Donald J. Trump.
At the same time, leading economists warn that more trade disputes could generate economic gains even before Trump's election. But even professionals have trouble predicting when and why recessions happen.
"The trade war has so far nullified all the benefits of fiscal stimulus and, if it continued, could lead to a global recession," said Marko Kolanovic, Head of Quantitative Strategy and Derivatives, on Thursday. from JPMorgan.
"If this recession materializes, historians could call it the" Trump recession "given that it would be largely caused by the initiative of the trade war."
Read more: Beware of the "Trump Recession": JPMorgan explains the role played by the president in erasing a full year of market progress – and exposes a scenario that could save the situation
Beyond Wall Street, companies are also worried. Thursday, 600 companies sent a joint letter to Trump arguing that broader tariffs in China would hurt workers and consumers.
Consumers also share their fears.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence index, released Friday, was 97.9 at the beginning of the month, up from 100 in May, while it was expected at 99.
"Consumers have responded by reducing the growth prospects of the national economy and, as a result, by reducing the expected gains in employment," said Richard Curtin, chief economist of the United States. investigation, about tariffs.
Saturday's warning is far from the first time Trump tries to predict an economic slowdown in the event he loses his presidency.
In August 2018, he told Bloomberg News: "If ever I had to be dismissed, I think the market would collapse, I think everyone would be very poor, because otherwise you would see numbers that you would not believe, on the contrary. "
[ad_2]
Source link