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- President Donald Trump has made the strength of the economy a key part of his re-election strategy for 2020.
- Trump got more ammunition for this argument with the first quarter GDP figures higher than expected on Friday.
- GDP is 3.2% for the first quarter, which is well above the 2.3% expected by economists.
- Voters are also generally supportive of Trump's economic management.
- Strong figures help to build Trump's best argument for 2020.
- Visit the Business Insider home page for more stories.
The report on GDP released on Friday was not just good news for the US economy, it is also a good sign for President Donald Trump who is gearing up for his reelection in 2020.
The Commerce Department said the first quarter GDP had reached 3.2%, well above the 2.3% expected by economists.
Although the high GDP figure may be temporary for a few reasons, growth came after initial concerns that first-quarter growth would be disastrous.
At the beginning of March, the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now Monitor estimated that the first quarter's GDP would end below the 0.5% mark. But instead, we got the biggest impression in the first quarter since 2015.
Read more: GDP growth shattered expectations early in 2019. But economists say the recovery is unlikely to last.
Trump has made the strong economy one of the central themes of his speech to voters, and the GDP figure released on Friday was a new opportunity for the president to talk about the resilience of the United States.
"GDP is an incredible number.But remember this: Not only that, we have great growth – that is growth.We have great growth and very, very very low inflation," said Trump to the press. "Our economy is doing well, number one in the world, we are the largest economy in the world and it is not even close."
And the argument seems to resonate voters. Although Trump's approval rating is still low, polls show that a majority of Americans approve of its management of the economy and many voters attribute to Trump's policy a credit considerable for the economic strength of the country.
Although the link between economic performance and elections has been tarnished in recent years, the health of the US economy has generally been a good predictor of elections. And the ability to point to a rise in wages and high GDP figures is a strong argument for Trump to present to voters. In fact, some predictive models give Trump an unexpected chance of being re-elected, based primarily on the growth potential of the economy.
Democrats are also very aware of the boost that Trump could gain from the economy. Many party members, including former President Barack Obama, claimed that Trump simply benefited from the reforms put in place in the Obama era as a result of the financial crisis.
But defending this cause may not be as convincing as Trump's message. Celina Lake, a prominent Democratic strategist, told Politico that the president's economic message was much stronger than that of the Democrats at the start of the 2020 cycle.
"We will tend to talk about things like paid time off and pay equity – and these things are all very popular policies," said Lake. "But they are not an economic message strong enough to win the presidency and beat Donald Trump, who talks about a very robust economic policy."
This does not mean that the economy could not slow down. In fact, many economists expect the GOP-led and Trump-supported tax cuts to start to run out at the end of the year and the possibility of a damaging trade war on the US economy. economic plan persists.
But up to now, US GDP has exceeded expectations and with a strong job market, rising wages and strong consumer confidence, there is a strong chance that Trump will benefit from a strong economy. in the run-up to the 2020 elections.
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