Trump's big business only attracts his followers

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The president's new immigration plan, unveiled on Thursday with the announcement of a rose garden at the White House, has an infinitesimal chance of becoming law. It is about as likely that the mess Jared Kushner, another upcoming project, aims to secure a "deal of the century" between Israel and the Palestinians. And although the president wants Iran to call it, the conditions that his team has set for an agreement make dialogue a non-dialogue.

In each case, Trump's approach allows for embedding its own priorities and those of its preferred stakeholders in the negotiations – for example, conservative candidates to the GOP or the Israeli government.

But it offers almost nothing for the other party in every negotiation – for example, Palestinians, Democrats or any other Iranian leader who could accept a highly improbable diplomatic opening.

And plans take an unrealistic assessment of the starting point of any discussion – ignoring in some cases barriers that do not fit the White House's vision of a solution to these problems and conflicts – some of the most difficult problems to resolve by the previous administrations failed to solve.

The chances of success on these fronts are therefore not promising if Trump is looking for political victories to present to voters in the 2020 elections. The president is a clever political operator. It's always possible that he's fooling himself – but unlikely. Thus, the most plausible interpretation of his administration's strategy is that he tries to maximize the political capital he can derive from each initiative – a sure sign that there is only one election left in 18 months and that she is fast approaching.

The President seemed to have admitted during his speech unveiling the immigration plan.

"If for some reason – possibly political – we can not get the Democrats to approve this merit-based high-security plan, we will have it approved immediately after the elections, when we take the House back, keep the Senate, and, well, Sure, hold the presidency, "said Trump.

& # 39; Myopic & # 39;

The political benefits of the likely failure of Trump's delivery plans to death are obvious and could be considerable.

When Democrats whose President needs to vote scold his immigration program – perhaps because he does not protect the beneficiaries of the Deferred Action Plan for child arrivals – Trump can brag about to have defended solid boundaries and merit-based visas, basic aspirations of its political base and conservative immigration advocates.

Senator Kamala Harris of California, a potential Democrat opposition in Trump in November 2020, played on the idea that the plan was rooted in an alternative reality that did not exist.

"I will tell you that I found that the announcement announced today was short-sighted, and I found an indication of an intention not to be relevant to the issue." more people, "Harris said in Las Vegas on Thursday.

Other critics of Trump said his plans to revise the asylum laws would only prolong his war against immigrants.

When the Palestinians almost certainly reject the plan of the Middle East that has not yet been unveiled, because there is no way to a state and they do not consider not the administration as an honest middleman, the president can boast praise of evangelical voters who love his uncompromising approach. .

Trump's envoy to the Middle East, Jason Greenblatt, confirmed Thursday that the plan was not framed by a two-state solution, a prerequisite for Palestinian support.

"We do not see any benefit in using this phrase, we understand what the Palestinians are looking for … we understand what the Israelis have said on the issue," Greenblatt told the annual meeting of the World Jewish Congress in Ottawa.

While half of his administration seems to be pushing for a military confrontation with Iran, Trump is trying to calm the game by meeting with the Swiss president on Thursday as part of what appeared to be a possible attempt to create a channel to Tehran. .

If his offer to negotiate with Iran gives rise to a breathtaking photo shoot in talks with a Tehran leader, he can make a great political move. If he fails, he remembers a commendable effort to defuse the tensions that his government has been exacerbating over the past two years. But the chances of success seem remote, not least because the government is demanding concessions from Iran that no leader of the Islamic Republic could accept.

Why do presidents publish plans without a future?

Trump is far from the first president to make striking plans that will not fail. Such an approach is as much a part of life in divided Washington State as monitoring struggles and it can help presidents to crystallize political arguments and present a consistent case to voters.

Democrats do pretty much the same thing – they pass laws to fight global warming and health care that they know the Republican-run Senate will not take and Trump will not sign – but they can use to blow up the government's obstruction and show voters in mid-term, they have kept their promises.

Republicans have long accused Democrats of not being serious in their efforts to redesign immigration, saying they want to suspend change in front of Hispanic voters to get their support in elections.

And it would not be fair for Trump to blame him for not ending the hostility between the United States and Iran, which has reached its peak since the Iranian revolution in 1979 – even though it was not the same. he withdrew from a nuclear deal reached by the Obama administration evaluated by US intelligence agencies was working.

And Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush all tried to get peace in the Middle East and failed.

But Trump's approach is a sure sign that at this stage of his presidency – given Washington's stalemate and gloomy prospects abroad – the public relations efforts of the administration must be considered with particular caution and for what they are.

The next two years may not be a total loss.

If the president could make serious concessions to China – on the respect of intellectual property and the end of cybernetics – after the intensification of its tariff war, he could rightly celebrate a feat that would have escaped his predecessors.

The hell could freeze and the president and the Democrats could find a way to agree to pass a $ 2 trillion infrastructure plan – despite the almost total breakdown of relations between the White House and Capitol Hill at following the Mueller report.

And the US sanctions campaign and the seemingly diminished incentive of two presidential summits with Kim Jong Un could finally bear fruit in serious talks with North Korea that have reduced the defusing of its nuclear threat.

But it seems more likely that if Trump is to accumulate great achievements, these will materialize in the first years of a second term, if he is re-elected.

CNN's Paula Newton from Ottawa contributed to this story.

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