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WASHINGTON – Democrats will need at least 17 Republican senators to break ranks and condemn President Donald Trump after his impeachment on Wednesday, a tall order that would require lawmakers who backed him to change their minds.
That’s more than the 10 House Republicans who broke with the president in the most bipartisan impeachment vote in American history, who accused Trump of inciting an insurgency.
Even though Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell publicly flirts in support of a conviction for Trump’s role in a deadly attack on Capitol Hill that targeted him and his staff, gaining the vote of a third of the US caucus. GOP Senate to condemn will not be an easy task.
Trump maintains a high approval rating and a passionate following among some Republican voters. He still held a 71% approval rating among GOP voters in a Quinnipiac poll taken after the riot.
Condemning Trump would allow the Senate to prevent him from running for elected office again, instantly reshaping the 2024 Republican presidential primary in which he might otherwise run.
But indictments are inherently political matters, and even a trial that takes place after Trump’s term expires would be riddled with political calculations, both for senators who might seek re-election and for those who might run for reelection. presidency themselves.
Republicans control the Senate now, but Democrats are expected to take over after President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in as the new president on January 20. A prolonged trial could hamper Biden’s debut in the office, which could be a feature or bug for different senators.
Once the Senate has seated all the newly elected members, the chamber will split 50-50 and new Vice President Kamala Harris will vote for the tiebreaker.
A handful of Republican senators have already criticized Trump and signaled that they would be ready to support impeachment. But to secure a conviction more votes would be needed, and supporters would likely turn to retiring senators or other long-time members considered institutionalists.
But it’s probably difficult.
The result could go to McConnell, who has a deep reservoir of confidence within his caucus. If he supported his conviction, he could lead more reluctant senators to follow suit.
But for now, the Kentucky Republican is undecided.
“I have not made a final decision on how I will vote, and I intend to listen to the legal arguments when they are presented in the Senate,” he wrote to his colleagues on Wednesday afterwards. – midday, according to a spokesperson.
McConnell and Trump have a complicated relationship – polar opposites in personality, staunch allies in certain political goals. McConnell broke with Trump last week, arguing passionately to reject the president’s efforts to call off the election.
McConnell is in no rush to hold a trial; his office has indicated he will not bring back the Senate until Jan.19. This means the trial is almost guaranteed to end under a Biden and Democrat presidency.–Controlled Senate.
The factions in an impeachment trial
Liam Donovan, lobbyist and former Republican Senate campaigner, said McConnell’s apparent willingness to consider sentencing “suddenly turns an unthinkable break with Trump into something very much at stake.”
“I remain skeptical, if only because 17 is always a discouraging number,” Donovan said. “McConnell’s Imprimatur alone would carry a ton of weight.”
Utah Senator Mitt Romney is considered the Republican most likely to support the conviction, as he was the only member of his party to vote to remove Trump from office in the first impeachment trial of the year last. Additionally, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski and retired Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey have said Trump should step down. Maine Senator Susan Collins could be a supporter of the condemnation, as could Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse.
After these five years, it becomes more complicated.
One group could be institutionalists in their eighties who may be considering retirement: Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, and Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe.
Other targets may be senators who criticized Trump for trying to overturn the election, including Ohio Senator Rob Portman and Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy. The retirement of North Carolina Senator Richard Burr is another possibility.
It would still not be enough.
Two jokers are Utah Senator Mike Lee from Utah and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. They presented themselves as “constitutional conservatives” and were unwilling to vote with Trump to overturn the election even before the riot reached Capitol Hill. But both have been very supportive of Trump, and Paul will face dark red Kentucky voters next year.
The crucial question, then, is how much McConnell would push his fellow Republicans to vote to condemn – and how many would be willing to follow him. Two members of his leadership team, Missouri Senator Roy Blunt and South Dakota Senator John Thune, face re-election in 2022 and would face a major challenge.
Two others, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa and Senator Todd Young of Indiana, have more time to face voters again and may be more inclined to follow McConnell.
McConnell’s position could also garner votes from grassroots senators like North Dakota Senator Kevin Cramer and South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds. But the highly charged politics and the deep divide shaking the GOP can confuse any typical calculation.
A senior Republican official told NBC News the votes would likely be there to condemn Trump if McConnell was on board. But a former GOP Senate staff member said he might need to work for it.
“If McConnell were to say ‘I vote to condemn’ but it’s a vote of conscience, it’s still difficult to get to 17. He would need to work,” said the former aide, who is connected with former colleagues and offered a candid assessment on condition of anonymity. “It’s a situation where you could easily get 10 votes. But 11 to 17 is probably more difficult.”
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