Trump's obsession with the size of the crowd, explained

Late in the evening of Friday, President Trump continued his obsession with the size of the crowd, not tweeting once, not twice, but three times the number of people present at his rally in New Hampshire the day before. The tweets seem to have come in response to a trendy hashtag stating that the arena was not as filled as the president had boasted.

"The place was up, totally packed, with thousands of people coming to the arena floor at the beginning," said the president. tweeted. "Thousands of people outside who were not allowed by code. The energy was really great to see. "

A minute later, Trump tweeted a photo of the crowd at the rally, and demanded that his supporters "look at the huge arena overflow packed in New Hampshire last night."

And then, 25 minutes later, Trump tweeted that he had beaten a crowd record at Southern New Hampshire University Arena, where the rally had taken place.

"The biggest crowd ever, according to Arena people. Thousands outside trying to enter. The place was packed! "Trump tweeted on the Manchester Stadium, New Hampshire. "Radical Left Dems & their partner, LameStream Media, have declared Arena empty. Discover the images. False news. The enemy of the people! "

Trump's controversy over the media probably referred to a viral tweet incorporating an excerpt from MSNBC's coverage of his speech in New Hampshire; in the clip, you can see a number of empty seats.

On Friday night, more than 70,000 tweets on the #EmptySeatMAGATour hashtag, many of which contain links to similar video footage and photos that apparently show empty seats at Trump's rally, had propelled the hashtag to the top of the news. from Twitter.

Trump's tweets were actually reiterations of an assertion he had made the day before in which he boasted of breaking the career record of singer Elton John.

Despite the empty seats, it seems that he has indeed broken the record of the musician. The deputy fire commissioner in Manchester told the Daily Mail that just over 11,500 people were in the ring to hear the president; John had a few hundred less during his performance on the spot.

However, if the Fire Marshal's count was correct, Trump would always have had empty seats. The Hill says the room has a capacity of 11,770 people, which would make Trump's claim that it had an unprecedented audience and criticism from critics that it would not have been able to fill the room. 'arena. The Marshal also told the Mail that the president had instructed about 8,000 people to fill the overflow space.

Holding the new attendance record alone did not seem to be enough for Trump, though. A quick analysis of his schedule shows that on Thursday he actually tweeted or retweeted remarks about the size and excitement of the crowd at his rally at least five times.

In summary: This is eight tweets about the size of his crowd in 24 hours – not to mention several other tweets showing flattering video footage and photos of the crowd without explicit text on their size.

Trump is obsessed with the size of the crowd for a long time

Even the most casual observer of Trump knows that he has an obsession with talking about the size of the crowd. He can be extremely unpredictable in politics, but he is remarkably consistent in his dedication to saying how much he can attract an audience.

As some analysts point out, Trump seems delighted to work with a large crowd, as his gatherings are a sort of therapeutic escape from everyday politics. But his public insistence on the size of his audience actually fulfills a deeply political function: his crowds offer a tangible demonstration of his popularity, even when the number of his polls is low.

Trump's obsession with the size of the crowd as president began the same day he was sworn in.

The photos and video footage of Trump's inauguration in 2017 showed that the National Mall was particularly empty during the swearing-in; Scientists in the crowd estimated that Trump had attracted an audience representing about a third of the size of Barack Obama's inauguration in 2009.

But just after the inauguration, Sean Spicer, White House Press Secretary, then insisted that Trump had attracted "the largest audience ever to have attended an inauguration, period".

After much public criticism, Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway famously defended Spicer's claims as "alternative facts".

Conway's tortured defense against the administration's false claims about the crowd did not, however, prevent Trump from continuing to propagate the myth that he would have the greatest inauguration crowd of all time; For example, he told ABC News in 2017: "They showed very unflattering, uncomplimentary pictures – from some angles – taken very early and full of other things. I'll show you a picture later if you like a large crowd. It was later reported that Trump had personally asked a government photographer to edit groundbreaking photos to make the ceremony look more crowded than it was.

While some critics have perceived Trump's fixation on the issue as a selfish pettiness, it is important to understand why Trump considered it a valid topic of political discussion.

According to polls, Trump was the least popular of the elected presidents for decades. And in the aftermath of Trump's inauguration, millions of Americans took to the streets for the women's march in what is considered the biggest demonstration of a day in US history. Arguing over the size of the crowd – which is a blurry science subject to visual manipulation – offers Trump the ground to challenge the official media accounts of his unpopularity and allows him to claim a more important mandate than he has received. .

In New Hampshire, for example, Trump has a disapproval rate of 57% in July, according to Morning Consult; but attracting a crowd of about 19,500 people gives an appearance of popularity.

This is a formula that Trump has repeated many times while struggling to manage low approval rates. He has also used it in the face of controversy, particularly in the case of Special Adviser Robert Mueller's investigation into the links of his presidential campaign with Russia.

And as was the case when he took office, Trump remains ready to lie on his attendance figures to reinforce his image as a popular politician. At a rally in Houston in October, Trump claimed that 50,000 people were watching the event right in front of the arena. But Art Acevedo, chief of the Houston police, said only 3,000 of them would, according to Newsweek.

Newsweek also announced that last September, at a rally in Springfield, Missouri, Trump had stated that 45,000 people were stranded outside his protest, but that the official City information had stated that there were only a thousand people outside.

Trump also did not hesitate to talk about the size of crowds, even in tragic situations where the political score is considered rude.

During his visit to Texas following Tropical Storm Harvey in August 2017, Trump was standing on a platform and proudly exclaimed, "What a crowd, what turnout."

More recently, when he visited a hospital treating victims of the El Paso shootings, Trump decided to seize the opportunity to talk about the importance of his crowd at a rally in El Paso several months ago and the much smaller size of the Democratic presidential candidate, Beto O The counter-rally of Rourke was.

"This place was packed. … it was a crowd. And we had twice the number on the outside. And then you got that crazy Beto. Beto had about 400 people on a parking lot, they said his crowd was great, "said Trump.

With such statements, Trump seeks to renew his political mandate and counter the claims that he is paralyzed by the controversy. And by using social media, he can mask the noise and stories of the media about his status as one of the least popular presidents in modern history, showing instead with seemingly irrefutable photographic evidence that he commands a enthusiastic and enthusiastic public.

This enthusiasm is important: it is crucial for voter turnout – enthusiasm has helped the Democrats win the House of Representatives in 2018 – and will be particularly critical to Trump's chances of re-election in 2020.