Trump's trade wars could cost Republicans their majority in the Senate

President Donald Trump meets with reporters before boarding Air Force One at the Morristown Municipal Airport in Morristown, New Jersey, on Sunday, August 18, 2019. (AP Photo / Patrick Semansky)Associated press

• Republicans have gone through the trade war of President Donald Trump against China with some discomfort, but their patience begins to weaken and their frustration spreads in public.
• Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania recently told Politico: "There is no doubt that trade uncertainties are contributing to the slowdown."
• But Trump has shown that he cared little about the collateral damage caused by his trade war with the US economy, which is showing signs of slowing down after its longer expansion in the nation's history.
• As the election cycle next year begins to heat up, Republicans are beginning to look increasingly vulnerable to Trump 's key question: the economy.
• It could threaten their control of the White House and cost them in the Senate.
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Republicans have gone through the trade war of President Donald Trump against China with some discomfort, but their patience has begun to run out and their frustration has spread in public.

Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania – one of the leading free traders – recently told Politico: "There is no doubt that the uncertainty of trade is contributing to the slowdown."

"We are in a very good place," he added. "The danger is: where will we be in a year if trade concerns continue to hurt growth?"

Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson echoed this remark: "The biggest risk to the economy is the trade situation as a whole."

Read more: The trade war between the United States and China has intensified significantly in recent weeks. Here is a timeline of everything that has happened up to now

But Trump has shown that he cared little about the collateral damage that his ongoing trade war is inflicting on the US economy, which is showing signs of slowing down after its longer expansion in the nation's history.

On Friday, the president accused companies of lying about the suffering caused by "these small tariffs" – and instead pointed to "their mismanagement".

A day earlier, Trump was questioned about his handling of the trade war in an interview with Fox News Radio. Not surprisingly, it has doubled its aggressive and erratic strategy to force China – and with it the world's second-largest economy – to return to the negotiating table. The President has expressed confidence that his strategy will ultimately pay off.

And Trump also fought back to Toomey, saying, "What does Pat Toomey want me to do? Does he want me to say," Let me raise my hand, China … continue to rip us off ? "

As the election cycle next year begins to heat up, Republicans are beginning to look increasingly vulnerable to Trump 's key question: the economy. And that could threaten their control of the White House, but also cost them the Senate.

Read more: Voters may not like Trump, but they are happy with the economy. Recession could reduce chances of reelection

"There is no doubt that tariffs have had a negative impact on the economy," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, chairman of the conservative US Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office under the Bush administration ,. "It's pretty simple: nothing about it is useful."

Trade war with China makes Senate shopping more competitive

The United States and China levy tariffs equivalent to hundreds of billions of dollars on products each from the beginning of last year. And the United States is about to step up the trade war with a 10 percent tariff on $ 112 billion worth of Chinese goods on Sept. 1. This will likely lead to higher prices for consumer goods, such as electronics and footwear.

Negotiations to end the trade war have stalled, although Trump said in the same interview with Fox that the talks were under way. But China's one-party form of government gives it much more flexibility to wait for Trump – and time is a luxury that Republicans do not have.

To gain control of the Senate, Democrats must conquer three seats if they win the presidency, and four if a Republican wins (the vice president breaks all relations of the Senate). The Cook policy report recently bode ill for Maine. Senator Susan Collins is vulnerable to her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court and for not being energetic enough to face Trump.

Read more: Trump and the Senate under Republican control increasingly oppose, trade in Yemen through the border wall

The Maine lobster industry, which injects approximately $ 1.4 billion into the state's economy each year, saw its sales to China fall by about 84%, according to the Maine International Trade Center. This will certainly not help Collins's chances of re-election.

Tariffs are also weighing on Iowa farmers – and any negative reaction from the powerful agricultural sector of the state could make it more competitive for Senator Joni Ernst. Georgia is another country in which Democrats seek to win.

Republicans are beginning to come up with ideas to give some security to the economy, for example by offering the middle class a tax break equivalent to the amount of money recovered in tariffs. However, it's probably a non-starter in the House controlled by Democrats. Most Republicans – although they agree that China is an economic threat – are unlikely to break with Trump.

Instead, they are pushing the administration to focus on the adoption of the free trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada or to seek new trade agreements with them. Japan and the United Kingdom, reports Politico.

In 2012, Democrats had retained the Senate in a year of presidential elections, despite poor growth after the 2008 financial crisis. But Holtz-Eakin said: "There is a big difference between a slow growth out of the Great Recession and slow growth from the fastest growth we've seen for some time. "