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Russia's dispatch of the highly anticipated S-400 air defense missile system to Turkey is expected to unfold from one day to the next, much to the indignation of many US officials.
Despite the pressure, Turkey refused to cancel.
"Since the United States backed the Kurds in Syria and suspected their support for the coup attempt against the Erdogan government, relations between the United States and Turkey have deteriorated," said John Wood, a military analyst and author of "Russia, the Asymmetric Threat for the United States," Fox News said, "Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood has earned few friends in the White House." Putin has exploited the divide that separates the two countries to make Russia one of the key players in any resolution of the Syrian civil war.The purchase of S-400 represents salt in the wound. "
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has hitherto remained attentive to the precise moment when they will land or where they will be deployed.
According to Kamran Bokhari, founding director of the Center for Global Policy and non-resident researcher of the Arabia Foundation, the purchase of the S-400 by Turkey takes into account some considerations.
"First, he is trying to diversify his military equipment, which has been based on Western systems until now. Secondly, by doing so, he is trying to gain weight in his dealings with the United States, which has been bad lately, "he said. "The Turks also calculate that it is unlikely that the repercussions are too serious. The United States will have to impose sanctions, but not as an end but as a means of finding a compromise solution. "
However, this purchase has long been angered by several US officials, who warned that the already gloomy economy of Ankara would be sanctioned and banned from a program to produce jobs F-35 hunters once the agreement concluded.
The concern of the United States stems from the idea that the move from Turkey to Moscow will allow the opposing nation to combine crucial information that could disrupt and jeopardize NATO developments, particularly the development of the F-35 American, which Turkey is developing.
Wood expects a clear and measured reduction in intelligence sharing between the two countries, and the eventual purchase of F-35s by Turkey will certainly be removed from the table.
A military crew of the S-400 Triumf missile system waiting as a military anti-aircraft unit of the Russian Air Force and the southern military district of the Russia enters combat mission near the city of Dzhankoy, Crimea.
(Sergei MalgavkoTASS via Getty Images)
Yet, far from the position of most senior administration officials, President Trump has refused to severely attack Turkey, recently suggesting that the country was the victim of an unfair policy of the Obama administration that prevented them from buying the American Patriot air defense. system.
The effectiveness of the S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile system in the theater of war remains to be demonstrated. According to an analysis of national interests, the system displays impressive capacity against a range of air targets, including airplanes, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, but has not yet been tested in combat. However, its use as an economic warfare tool can not be underestimated.
"This is an excellent example of the Russian hybrid war against the United States and its NATO allies," the report said. "The first strategic advantage (for Russia) is obviously the revenue generated by the sales of arms. The second strategic advantage is the prestige and international status generated by the perception that Russia is still a force to be reckoned with and able to develop advanced offensive and defensive weapon systems. "
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Many experts conclude that the real winner is America's biggest opponent of the Cold War.
"In Turkey, the S-400 agreement with Russia is based on two different factions. On the one hand, the so-called Eurasianists, a clique of the security bureaucracy seeking to turn away from the West to Russia and China, strongly defended the acquisition of Russian equipment, Aykan explained. Erdemir, former board member. of the Turkish Parliament and now Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "On the other hand, Erdogan and his narrow circle of loyalists want the Russian air defense system to be more concerned about their safety, as a precaution against a future coup attempt, an effective security system against the own Turkish F-16 jet aircraft. . "
He noted that these two factions, which were once fierce opponents during the first decade of Erdogan's reign, have come closer together over the past five years.
"Beyond mere personal interest, both factions share a deep animosity towards the Western world and its values. They would see US sanctions resulting from the purchase of the S-400 as an additional opportunity to undermine Turkey's ties with the United States and other NATO allies, "said Erdemir. "Moscow has everything to gain from this crisis, because Ankara is playing more and more a spoiler role within NATO. Turkey's drift into the transatlantic alliance will make the country more sensitive to Russia's influence and interference. "
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In addition, some experts say that despite the war of words and the imminent punishment, little substance is likely to come from the hoopla.
"(The United States will probably react) with some sort of punitive measure, but probably not stopping F-35-related work, given the administration's taste for military exports and the place reserved for authoritarian leaders like Erdogan, "said the director of defense priorities, Benjamin. H. Friedman. "This will cause more people to wonder if Turkey belongs to NATO, but I doubt that NATO members are willing to do anything about it."
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