Interest of the agenda, 3 views at the table

Ece CEYHUN

The central bank will announce the interest rate decision today at 2:00 pm.

Economists expect the bank to raise the interest rate by 100-125 basis points

The central bank, which raised its interest rates by 950 points base since the previous year, will further increase its rates. In the market, the range of expectations expressed in interest rates is going from 50 basis points to 150 basis points.

The most important reason why the market enters the interest rate increase forecast is that the "central bank's key rate is 17.57% against 17.75%" Influence of inflation. After reaching 15.39% of inflation, economists expect to reach the peak with the July and August inflation figures to be announced in August and September. Not only overall inflation, but the basic indexes and producer prices also indicate a sharp rise, 17% of inflation should be visible. Meanwhile, in the survey on announced expectations, TÜFE expectations at the end of the year increased to 13.88 percent. According to the figures, since the beginning of the year, the increase in TÜFE expectations at the end of the year reached 430 basis points. There are basically three main scenarios on the market

1- Increase the interest of 100-125 basis points

Bankers predict an increase in the interest rate of 100-125 basis points . It is stated that the rise in inflation will continue in July and August and that this measure should be taken in order to ease the inflationary pressure caused by the accumulated losses in TL. If there is no rise in interest rates, we will see a deterioration of the exchange rate and long-term interest rates. A possible increase makes it easier to go to 4.60. "An inflationary expectation of twice the expectation of an analyst," he said. We must also prepare for new US actions. "

2 – The program should be announced instead of interest

Interest rate increases indicate the increase in the rate of 950 basis points since the previous year "Monetary policy is quite strict and the possibility of a hard landing in the economy," said the group, "the interest should not enter the spiral of increase "The prescription of those who advocate rising interest rates is the" program. "should be announced by the government of the substance of the programs" put us in "rather than the content of the phrase that there should be a program to solve the fundamental problems of Turkey also points out.It is stressed that if the CBRT is supported by disinflationary fiscal policies and strong structural reforms, the pressure on Market interest rates will be reduced earlier than planned, and it is stated that the financial loose life should be reversed at the first opportunity. It has been stated that the decision could be taken in the short term, but that it could reverse the flow of capital by creating long-term investor confidence.

3 – It is necessary to increase the interest rate

"Those who advocate that the Central Bank further increases the interest rate instead of gradually increasing the rate of interest . " "The increase to be made when calculating that rates on the London swap market will see inflation at 17% basis points should be" comment. "According to this group, the Center should now set the threshold in front of the market Proactive movement