The dollar will fall in 2019 – Milli Gazete

According to the report dated November 25th of the bank; "We think the market is mainly fueled by developing country currencies," which implies that emerging market equities may soon rise. he said. This assessment suggests that foreign data could be positive for the dollar / Turkish lira parity.

Comments by strategist Hans Redeker on the subject:

Many investors pulled out of emerging markets in 2018 and bought more assets in the United States because of rising bond yields and the depreciation of the dollar. At the same time, financial difficulties in countries such as Turkey and Argentina climbed – gave an additional reason for investors to sell their assets in emerging markets.

As a result, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which measures stocks of 24 economies, has fallen about 16% this year. However, in Morgan Stanley's baseline scenario, it is estimated that the index will increase by 8% from current levels by December 2019, as well as by an expected 4% for the S & P 500 indexes. MSCI European.

Morgan Stanley prefers emerging market equities to US companies as it expects stable growth for these economies in 2019, against a slowdown in expansion.

The Bank expects growth in the United States to be moderate compared to expectations of 2.9% this year, 2.3% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. Such a slowdown will reduce significantly the outlook for the euro, which will generate some of the air in the major emerging markets of debt. In US dollars.