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dollar and the rapid rise in interest rates and heavy debt burden to force Turkey. The deterioration in economic indicators since the beginning of the year is deepened. Finally accelerate the exit of economic management to mistrust of foreign capital in Turkey.
Since Christmas TL of excessive depreciation, the current account deficit that will exceed this year $ 57 billion and the heavily indebted Turkish company in the international arena over the upcoming agenda it causes. After the elections, the lack of confidence in the administration of the economy after the transition to the presidential government system has accelerated the exit of foreign investors from Turkish assets. However, foreigners were already a constraint, and they were leaving Turkish capital because of the distorted economic indicators. The data shows that if capital inflows are cut off, the financial markets will be hit hard.
Current losses in TL appear to be one of the most important causes of market turbulence. The depreciation of the TL also increases inflation, which creates a significant problem for the Central Bank, who knows that President Tayyip Erdogan does not like the increase in traditional response rates at the moment. ;inflation.
DETTE CHARGEE LOURDE
It is more expensive for Turkish companies or individuals to repay their dollar-denominated debt. Bank of International Settlements Data (BIS), Turkey is slightly below the $ 256 billion debt in Mexico, for example $ 200 billion turns out to be a heavy debt burden.
The good news is, the TL is significantly lower than the currently actual value. The Argentine Pesos have lost 46.2% of their value since the beginning of the year, while the TL has attracted attention with a depreciation of 27.9%. The currency traded below the highest value after the TL was the Brazilian Real with 17.5% and the Indian Rupee with 8.4%. indicator of the financial fragility of Fathom Consulting, also shows that Turkey is so much worse. Below-zero scores with a score of zero to 10 indicate that the government's debt is basically safe, while the notes above 3 are fundamentally insecure. inflation to points in Turkey 4, while South Africa 3.1, the third of Mexico, while the score of Brazil is at level 3.5.
FAST GROWTH OF DEBT HAS BEEN CREATED
Turkey's high growth risk one of the important factors that forced the economy to be fueled by the boom in the credit. Turkey with the growth of 20 per cent per annum Bank Bank of America Merill's third-row seats in emerging economies followed by Lynch. Argentina has just made the standings ahead of Turkey and the Democratic Republic of Congo. According to data provided by the International Finance Institute (IIF), the overall ratio of loans / deposits in the Turkish banking system exceeds 100%. In other words, it is inevitable that this will cause serious problems in the event of a significant blockage of the credit markets. With Turkey, South Africa, Chile, Mexico and Colombia faced similar risks. The following loans in the banking system function as a buffer capable of reducing the effects of a possible crisis, which accounts for only 3% of total loans. This rate was 48 percent in Greece, while Ukraine observes the level of 56 percent.
BOTTOM LEFT
sales in Turkey contributed to the growth of the bond market reached dramatically with concern. Although the Central Bank has raised its interest rates by 5 percentage points in recent months, investors point out that bond inflows are less than 1% in real terms because of the rate of interest. 39, inflation of 15.39%.
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