Critical warning in the economy: "Consumption will do the bottom"

According to forecasts by Bahçeşehir University (Betam) Center for Economic and Social Research, GDP growth in the third quarter of the year will not change from the previous quarter. The annual change will be 1.7%.

According to the Republican report, Betam's survey of the third quarter "Economic growth and estimates: November 2018" survey indicates that GDP will remain stable compared to the previous quarter, calculated using seasonally adjusted data. and after the calendar. The research included the following conclusions:

4 In our previous note, our growth forecasts were 1.7% on an annual basis and 0.3% on a quarterly basis. However, we are lowering our forecasts.

In the third quarter of 2018, we expect a decline in consumption indicators, which do not include seasonal or calendar effects, with the exception of the durable goods and non-durable goods indices, compared to the second quarter. of the year. We can see that the biggest drop was recorded in imports of consumer goods, with 17.1%. The sharp drop in the SCT continues.

When we compare the comparison with the same quarter of the previous year, we expect a decline in all leading consumption indicators in the third quarter of 2018, with the exception of the production index of non-durable goods and public consumption expenditure. Consumption of TBS and consumer goods, year-on-year, was 22.1% and 27.6% respectively. Although we expect an increase in the durable goods sector's production index from one quarter to the next, we expect a 3.3% decline from the previous year .

Based on the data summarized above, we do not anticipate an increase in consumption in the third quarter of 2018. In the third quarter of 2018, compared to the second quarter of 2018, we expect an acceleration of the decline in all sales. items, with the exception of the inventory level of the retail trade sector. Expenditure on public investment and investment goods imports are the main drivers of the decline.

IMPORTANT MEASURES

Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, we estimate that all leading investment indicators, excluding retail stocks, will fall and that the largest declines will be in capital goods imports and investments. public. Even at best, the investments will be taken into account.

In light of the decisive indicators for July, August and September, we estimate that quarterly GDP growth in the third quarter of 2018 will not increase on a quarterly basis, but will increase by 1.7% year-on-year. Although it is possible to change the fourth quarter growth figures by announcing October data, it can be said that there will be an obvious recession of the economy at least in the third quarter. The main question is how to take steps to protect it and therefore how long will this stagnation last.