In Syria, the calculations are thwarted: the direction is now in Damascus

In Syria, which has been at war with the intervention of domestic and foreign actors for 7 years, the change in balances on the ground has also upset political calculations. The Sham government, which has received almost all the domination in the central and southern regions of the country, with the support of two major forces, such as Russia and Iran, has made its last political step on the Syrian Kurds. The political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG), the backbone of the YPG that Ankara views as the terrorist organization, meets the Syrian Democratic Council (SDK) in Damascus and has prepared a Roadmap on the political solution and the Syrian government has taken an important step to stabilize the country it has scored. After negotiating with Lebanon and Jordan, the Sham administration began to accept the country's refugees.

Radical Change

After the Deraa uprising on March 15, 2011 in Syria, the calendars The chart, which emerged during the September 2015 presentation, revealed the fact that it was an ISIID that had dominated almost half of the country's territory. The Syrian government's tense map of Damascus and the western regions changed little by little by the time the Russian government came into being on September 30, 2015. The anti-ISI coalition led by the United States and the SDO that she supported extended their positions against the jihadist terrorist organization in the north, while Russia and the Iran-backed Sham government in other parts of the countries have extended their domination. In Turkey, since the autumn of 2016, before and after Jerablus El Babu, Afrin and became power referee in Azez with SAR. The FSA is a serious domination of others outside the northern border of Turkey with the support of the movement and has not Idlib. The last province in which jihadist groups dominate is Idilb.

One of the rules that has marked the history of the world has also played a role in Syria: power in the Sahar has influenced the political process. The Geneva process, which began for a political settlement with the UN in 2012 and the Syrian government was weak against the opposition forces, could not make any concrete progress. With regard to 2017, the contract signed between Astana and Ankara, Tehran and Moscow for the creation of non-conflict zones in Syria served as a prerequisite for the progress of the political solution.

Important Challenges

The Congress of Syrian National Dialogue held in Sochi earlier this year, with the initiative of Russia and UN support, also constituted a step important in the creation of a Constitutional Commission. Although the report is important, there are also titles that are not so easy to solve at the table. First and foremost, the centralist structure of the country's administration and the demands of Syrian Kurds for constitutional assurance and civilization are points of friction. Second, it is still unclear how the transition to Deyr ez Zor, which has prescriptive essential energy resources, against the US-led anti-ISI coalition and SDG forces, is still unclear. Moreover, the fact that the weapons in the hands of the Kurds will be handed over to the Syrian army will be difficult. In the Department of International Relations of the University of Istanbul where we received his point of view, Assoc. Hakan Gunes thinks that Damascus wants to carry out difficult negotiations with SDG.

Progress in the critical chapters of the negotiations is due in part to the fact that the progress of the critical chapters of the negotiations has been a bit of a burden on the ground, two important external actors, Ankara and Washington, on the way they will act. Negotiations between the Damascus government and the SDK behind the first floor play an important role in Turkey's movements. The journalist-writer Hikmet Durgun, whom we interviewed, points out that the TSK has not reacted to Afrin's intervention with a serious reaction from the anti-ISID coalition and that Washington and Ankara are reached a consensus on Minbic.

Durgun states that 140,000 people must leave the area with the Afrin operation and that placing there jihadist forces creates a fear.Durgun said that Ankara did not not appealed against the United States claiming that "we will advance to Haseke" pushed in the search for the road. "According to the stagnation known for their work in Syria, as well as the desire to solve the bureaucratic problems in the region and in Turkey, the idea that he would not enter the area where taking the Syrian army into consideration the impact of Russia justifies the joint search for solutions to the Government of Damascus in public. D & # 39; On the other hand, the most discomfort in Damascus hear the actors -SDG a rapprochement that Turkey and the real US Durgun points out that Washington is disturbed by the improved financial support to the region since years, both in terms of physical presence and art of oil and natural gas in the countryside of Deyr ez Zor. Durgun thinks that there could be cracks in SDG-US relations. This reminds us that the current priority of Ankara, which is included in Syria's struggle with the claim of "strategic depth", from "My brother Assad" to "Asad", must be removed from the PYD border / YPG. Moreover, it is known that Ankara is disturbed by the increasing political influence of the Damascus government.

4-way summit in Turkey

Although much problematic title says, however, still, and recent progress measurements in the area of ​​Damascus, considering that the solution of the zoom. Russia thinks that could happen floor of a memorandum of understanding to intervene between the United States and Turkey. Because US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin this month in Helsinki were held at the historic summit, leaders stressed the importance of working together on Syria. President Tayyip Erdogan also highlighted the positive aspects of the relationship between the two countries with his speech to Putin.
Erdogan yesterday in Turkey in September in Germany, France and announced that he will host a Syrian summit with the participation of Russia

Idlib. Turning difficult

Idlib problem to help the stability of Syria also stands out as an important crossroads. armed dissidents, only the province of Idlib that is controlled by jihadist forces, Deraa, is Guta, the Kuneytr to unload areas as jihadists was the area where placement.

The fact that Turkey's guarantor and military observers report Idlib military operations increases the risk of yaratabileceğ of the operation. Stalking author Wisdom 12 points of Turkey's military observation of doing Syria's operations draws attention to where it is difficult at this point. Still, if a possible conflict, being the nearly 1 million people will move to the border with Turkey points out that another issue. On the other hand, yesterday, the Syrian army and its affiliated forces reportedly placed a military force of nearly 3,000 people near İdlib.

Probability of Chance: Tehran's Thriller

The most important uncertainty that could affect Syria and the future of the region is the asgreif politics that the United States, the Gulf States and Israel are intensifying against Iran. Any aggressive action that may lead to Iran or come from Iran will cause all active actors in Syria to see their positions again. Assoc. Dr. Hakan Güneş thinks that his continued tension on Iran will last at least a moment with economic speeches and sanctions. Pointing out that stuck on Iran 's Sun Turkey, Ankara' s decline in the amount of oil it receives from Tehran also argues that it is signing it.

Solar remind Israel to withdraw from areas close to him in Syria, mainly from Iran, Tehran