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April 15, 2019 by Dr. Maximilian Holland
Tesla CEO Elon Musk had a busy weekend on Twitter, and a decent number of news items have been published that might be of interest to Tesla's current and future owners. Let us dive and review what we have learned.
More about complete self-driving
Musk's recent interview with Lex Fridman had already shown that the value of the assets of Tesla vehicles capable of operating in full-auto mode will increase over time, due to their potential to generate revenues from the mobility services on the market. Tesla network. Musk then broadcast a number of tweets to clear up the question.
First, compared to other mobility service vehicles (classic taxis, Ubers, etc.), the Model 3 is designed for a long life, the bodywork and training to last a million kilometers. Even the battery is designed to provide reliable service for 1,500 cycles (nearly 500,000 km in the Long Range variant), and it will be relatively inexpensive to exchange battery modules in the future, for vehicles with Extremely high mileage that may require:
The drive unit and body model 3 are designed as a commercial truck for a lifetime of one million kilometers. The current battery modules must last between 1,500 and 300,000 km. Module replacement (not pack) will cost only $ 5,000 to $ 7,000.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 13, 2019
Musk also said that the price of FSD will increase over time, probably depending on its growing self-sustaining capacity and therefore the revenue-generating potential it offers homeowners:
From May 1
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 13, 2019
In a sub-wire, Musk agreed that the price increment could be "something like" of $ 3,000 – but that it would be a one-time increase, or if several such price increases could occur, as as the FSD's capabilities increase, this is less clear. Musk made it clear that the Y models ordered now will lock in current EHR prices, and will therefore be immune to these future price increases. (Side note: two members of the CleanTechnica It is also clear that Musk's core message is that future EHR prices will never be as affordable as they are now. Again, the rationale for this is the much improved functionality it will offer over time:
Exactly
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019
Absolutely. There are 2.5B cars and trucks on Earth. Even to replace 1% of this fleet, it would be necessary to manufacture 25 million vehicles per year. Tesla will manufacture more than 500,000 cars in the next 12 months, but this represents only 2% of the 25 million or 0.02% of the global car fleet. Slow automotive industry -> demand >> supply.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019
Musk also offered bread crumbs on some of FSD's future capabilities:
Yes
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019
According to Tesla superfan Ryan McCaffreyThere is some confusion in the Tesla owner community as to whether vehicles equipped with the original Autopilot 2.0 hardware can be upgraded to FSD systems or only vehicles equipped with version 2.5 hardware. Musk clarified that all 2.0 and later / higher vehicles can be upgraded / installed later to allow the DSE:
Yes, all cars with autopilot 2.0 or higher, so about 400,000 Tesla cars built to date.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 13, 2019
Musk also referred to the article of our own Alex Voigt on The mystery of the demand of model 3, and make some funny comments about the horses:
Buying a car in 2019 that can not switch to autonomous driving is like buying a horse instead of a car in 1919 https://t.co/oEjXdmyJiJ
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 15, 2019
Haha true. I love horses.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 15, 2019
Battery Ramp Cell
Last year, we reported that Gigafactory 1 was ahead of schedule and had an annualized capacity of 35 GWh. It seemed that he was on the right track to get there early in 2019. Musk shed more light on current capacity. Although current production is close to a theoretical annualized operating rate (peak?) Of 35 GWh, the "current peak output" currently represents only a rate of execution of 39 ~ ~ 24 GWh. In other words, the annualized 35 GWh ramp is still in progress – not yet reached. The bottleneck is apparently Panasonic battery cells. For this reason, other suppliers have been asked to cover their Powerwall and Powerpack needs. In addition, sales of Tesla Energy were much lower in 2018 than they could have been with adequate battery cell supply. Here are the tweets:
Incorrect. The Pana to Giga cell lines represent only about 24 GWh / year and have been a constraint for the release of Model 3 since July. No choice but to use other providers for Powerwall / Powerpack cells. Tesla will not spend money to increase capacity until the existing lines are closer to 35 GWh theoretical.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 13, 2019
Wow, a lot of people do not really know how manufacturing works! If you have a maximum capacity of X, the actual average weekly production will necessarily be less than X. The first 6 to 12 months, it will be significantly lower than X. Unable to accurately predict the S curve of the production ramp.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019
This tweet has required considerable effort. Powerwall production is now growing rapidly. Tesla was starving of cells last year, so we had to change lines to make car packs, which meant that Powerwall's production was living from garbage.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019
Calling the Sycophants of Wall Street
In response to another FUD article on Tesla published by the WSJ last week (which, in principle, I will not make the link), Musk said the "scrum" is a sock puppet of Big Oil , and that Bloomberg is almost as bad.
Holman Jenkins & WSJ in general are big oil puppet socks
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019
Please support my campaign to rename @WSJ like ? emoji!
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019
Sure, Bloomberg is almost as bad
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 14, 2019
There were a few other tweets relating to Tesla, including the appealing "poetic justice" that Sentry Mode had been able to help identify a former traffic court judge who scraped a parked Tesla and did not join him there. only when the owner of Tesla had found it.
SpaceX
There were also a lot of tweets about the big week that SpaceX just had with its Falcon Heavy rocket. We will not go through here because it is not really our goal.
SpaceX nails another landing (SpaceX photo)
We will know a lot more about the progress of autonomous driving, in a week, when Tesla will organize an "Investor Day" on the autonomy of vehicles. Stay tuned for our reports on this subject.
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