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Twenty-three reflections on the wildest series of a second wild ride:
It's easy to dismiss this as a consolation series: Win and Golden State or Houston stomp you. Yes, the winner here will be a huge outsider in the finals of the Western Conference. The Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets must be exhausted. Damian Lillard has looked frivolous during games of this series, including for about an hour (!) Of the epic match of four extra time against the third game of this semifinal of the conference. He spent long periods as a lure, lounging on the wing while CJ McCollum directed the limelight.
The willingness to share the stage is part of what makes Lillard a magnet and galvanizing leader. But it seemed different. Lillard was passive – standing instead of cutting or filtering. The decoy mode lasted longer than expected.
The Nuggets also oblige Lillard to defend himself, often trying to pass it on Jamal Murray.
• Denver's resilience is remarkable. To win two draws at the limit of Game 4 on the road, it takes courage and confidence that we usually do not find in teams of this green. Portland and San Antonio both made 32-9 at home, tied for the league's third-best mark, behind only Milwaukee and the Nuggets themselves. Beat the two on the road, 2-1, is a major achievement.
From the last week of March to Sunday, the Nuggets played 20 games in 39 days. Denver is tough.
• On the other side, Kevin Durant carries a Golden State Warriors team that suddenly looks thin and slightly shaky. Durant might not be in this team next season. They have no space to replace it and almost no bench. Draymond Green is 29 and had to go on a fast, planned, but nonetheless, to be in playoff form. Stephen Curry is 31 years old and has serious injuries and problems. These are annual post-season events now.
Curry has another equipment in reserve if Durant is going away. Golden State won a championship then 73 games that way. The alleged post-season struggles of Curry are a little exaggerated. His numbers are very good and his impact on Golden State's offense still exceeds those numbers.
But it is difficult to look at these warriors and conclude that the post-Durant theoretical version would look very much like a lock to enter the next season as a Western favorite game. This is the true backdrop of this war of wear between Denver and Portland, although that does not seem to be the case.
• Blazers and Nuggets are almost mirror images of each other. They lean slightly in attack first, and the series has it too. The combined score after four games is Denver by two. They were tied for first place in terms of offensive rebound rate, and they occupy the first and second places of this round. They both take care of the ball and impose few turnovers. This series was therefore clean. They prefer a slow pace.
They build their faults around two-player dead games and perform many of the same actions. The series can look like an endless series of pick-and-roll and passes from one side of the floor – without any other player on the same side.
For Portland, the danger lies in the fact that its guards open a hat-trick behind these mediators. For Denver, it's Nikola Jokic – perhaps the most unpredictable and most experienced host in the league – who takes what the defense gives him, and even some things he does not achieve, it's he gives.
Both defenses attack these pick-and-roll aggressively, although Denver has his big men – mainly Jokic – running further to swarm Lillard and McCollum over the 3-point arc:
It starts with McCollum playing Jokic – a "screen-screen" action from the pet designed to push Jokic behind the game:
The Blazers cleared Lillard's side so he had an easy passing lane towards Kanter, and Kanter an unobstructed view of the ground on the take. Denver has seen this a million times and knows what to do:
Malik Beasley, a mainstay of these playoffs, walks away from Maurice Harkless under the edge to report to Kanter. Torrey Craig leaves Al-Farouq Aminu to block the eventual pass for Harkless but remains in a position to regain Aminu. Here are the last four seasons of Portland basketball: the teams leave Harkless and Aminu open and the Blazers often win or lose according to the number of 3 they have hit. They are 4 of 22 against Denver.
• Aminu's flash on the fault line is a smart meter. He can not just relax in a corner. Standing there puts him parallel to Harkless. It's a difficult pass for Lillard and McCollum; It's hard to see, and they have to take on several defenders.
• Jokic was solid as he moved his feet, pulling the ball out of Lillard's hands and stirring in the paint. But there has been a decent number of cases in which he has not gone far enough, and Lillard has had the space to start. Lillard has not been able to exploit these openings quite often. He let 3 points pass and drew long curves at 2 points.
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He can make many! That's Damian Lillard! But something's a little relaxed – as if Lillard still smelled the show, wary of Craig pawing his shot from behind. Lillard leaves a few 3 on the table.
• Something Portland should do even more: have their big screens rewritten in the opposite direction. Jokic did not have a shot at the Portland guards twice:
(Yes, Lillard missed.) The rescreen worked almost every time.)
• Lillard's double screens in semi-transition – especially near midcourt – also hurt Denver:
• Another smart Portland tactic has eliminated each game more: let Lillard attack alone before a pick. Why invite a trap when Lillard can roast Craig alone? Lillard narrowed the gap inside for a decisive time and brought Portland to two in the race with a time remaining at 2:47 in the fourth game.
• A variant of this that worked for both Lillard and McCollum: dribbling towards Kanter's choice, and then moving away from him – into an open space. The defender of Lillard often leans towards the pick, preparing for the hunt. Jokic is ready to run on Lillard. Going the other way is wrong at the same time.
• I suspect that Lillard's isolation is the reason why Denver transferred Gary Harris to him, and Craig to McCollum, in the second half of match 4. Harris is faster and faster. He did a good job on Lillard. He did not get enough attention among Jokic's madness and Murray's roller coaster, but Harris was ready for the playoff nursery. He is vying for each possession, and he is not afraid to bulldoze thanks to Lillard and McCollum when he shows up for a transfer from Jokic with a landing strip.
• Having Harris on Lillard also means that Lillard is often stuck on Harris – instead of hiding on Craig – after the Portland defeats. All to make Lillard work.
• We saw only lightning – usually at the time of crisis – of Jokic hiding on Aminu so Paul Millsap could take Kanter and plug the Lillard / Kanter pick-and-roll with his choppy hands . Portland has obvious contrasts – use Aminu as a screener, Kanter post against Millsap – but I wonder if we could see more.
• Placing McCollum on the low side of a Lillard pick-and-roll – or putting down Lillard if McCollum has control – places Denver in a difficult position, since he has to help a shooter. instead of the Harkless / Aminu duo:
Denver could adapt by letting Millsap drop Aminu on the strong side – next to Lillard – and the Nuggets have tried to do it for some business:
But this reverses the usual help responsibilities and it is difficult to execute on the fly. (The Warriors are really good at this kind of improvisation.)
• Rodney Hood on the weak side also works, although it's a good defense:
The Blazers are plus-9 with Hood, McCollum and Lillard on the floor – and Hood instead of Harkless. They lose size that way. Harkless defends Murray, giving Portland the opportunity to change Murray-Millsap's action.
But Hood handled Murray's mission well. He is a more polite Harkless postman, though less brutal, and the Blazers are trying to pick up points by posting Murray. (Murray's defense remains a train wreck.)
I wonder if Terry Stotts could give the run to Run / Lillard / McCollum.
• Seth Curry played only 16 minutes alongside Portland's two star guards. Portland could possibly risk a little more.
• In the meantime, here's the Denver version of this side pick-and-roll:
Portland's answer is the same: the Harris blitz and a defender help one of the Denver-Millsap blah shooters here – to meet Jokic at the capture. Easy!
But even when you do it well, Jokic is clever enough to hurt you:
It's close to what Portland wants: pin Denver and force Jokic to float. Problem: Jokic is an expert on floats. Jokic sets the choice low enough to be almost in the overlay range. What a naughty.
• The most fun part of chess is Portland's defense against the Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll. Denver manages 37 of these releases per 100 possessions, compared with 24 in the regular season, per second of spectrum. In theory, it should not be so difficult to contain. Murray is not really an unusual artilleryman at Lillard; you do not have to blitz with the same urgency. Jokic is a slow-moving 3-point average shooter.
Plant Kanter at the very top of the key – neither too high nor too low – and he can go back in time to challenge Jokic's rider or meet him around the line of demarcation:
This sounds like an overreaction from McCollum:
Maybe that's it. But Jokic can make contested runners on Kanter. If Kanter is a late beat, Jokic hits him and commits a foul. Jokic can shoot Kanter, and he hit 41 percent deep in the playoffs. Shut up too hard and Jokic can pump and drive through you.
It threatens to do almost anything against a scrambled defense, and you can see Portland panic in the spinning limbo: Should we change? Should a third defender hit him? Jokic's attack with indecision.
• When Portland sends his third defender to Jokic, Denver shut the door of this guy – as Barton does here with Curry waiting to jump on Jokic:
Denver has not yet reaped much benefit from this situation – one must recognize Portland's defense – but that's a trail to explore, even though Jokic simulates a pass before taking the road.
• Murray was also very smart in generating switches. If Kanter goes too far back, Murray addresses him, forcing Kanter to change position. Murray will sneak behind Jokic until he persuades the defense to miss out on his will. His feeling and his IQ are underestimated.
• Once this change is made, Jokic goes to work. He can do it without a switch. Portland flirted by slipping Aminu on him – so that Aminu and Harkless could reverse Murray-Jokic's action – but I'm not sure it's tenable. This requires an automatic double-team, and at that point, you're asking Denver to miss a bunch of open 3 on Jokic's kickout passes.
The nuggets are strangely inclined to miss piles of 3 open. But Portland's defense behind the doubles teams was a bit of a mess. Too many people rush to the same place, leaving too much open space:
Lillard and Curry (at the line of fouls here) have the bad habit of turning around and looking into no man's land:
Jokic must continue to post and trust his fencers.
• The series could be decided by these difficult moments when the best players are on the bench. Denver is minus 38 in the 30 minutes that Jokic has rested. It's like impossible. Michael Malone opted for Millsap as the only starter in the queues that open the second and fourth quarters. Among these groups include Will Barton, who became alive in Portland – Will Barton's revenge alert! – and started half of the season.
Malone might need to revive the rotation so that a member of Murray or Harris joins this group. Playing Millsap in the center could be a way to do it. He also tried to shoot Jokic a little earlier in the first and third quarters, while using it to anchor the second unit.
• Stotts dropped the bench crowd and used McCollum to support the small-reserve groups with Evan Turner at the front of power and Zach Collins at the center. Collins was really good on both sides. Turner has three baskets in the playoffs. His ball game is not as valuable with McCollum on the ground, though everything is useful. Millsap mistreated him in the post until the fourth match.
These queues have held up well. They feel a little shaky. Trading in Harkless or Aminu could make them more robust.
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