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Minnesota Twins agree with right-hander Randy Dobnak on a $ 9.25 million five-year extension, by ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). The deal includes a three-year club option with escalators that could bring the total amount to $ 29.75 million. The first optional year in 2026 will include a $ 1 million buyout, by MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). That leaves $ 8.25 million to be spread over the previous five seasons. For each of the three option years, escalators can add up to $ 1.8 million per season depending on the thresholds thrown by the rounds.
This is certainly a surprise, considering that the 26-year-old Dobnak will start the year in the relieving box after spending all of last season in the rotation. While starting the year in a piggyback role may seem like a demotion, the Twins clearly feel obligated enough by Dobnak’s performance to secure his role in the organization for years to come. Moreover, with only 1,036 days of service, he was not likely to become eligible for arbitration until 2023.
The Twins, meanwhile, get three additional seasons of optional team control at probably reasonable rates. Both parties enjoy financial certainty, although escalators still provide Dobnak with a way to increase future income. Importantly, this is probably Dobnak’s main source of career income: if the twins choose to buy back the option years, it likely won’t lead to a higher salary elsewhere, and if the twins don’t buy back any of the options. Option years, Dobnak will reach free agency for the first time ahead of his 34-year-old season. Still, given his non-traditional path to professional baseball, it’s certainly understandable that a deal like this appeals to Dobnak.
His rise, after all, is certainly considered one of the less likely origin stories of the recent season. The Twins signed Dobnak with a signing bonus of just $ 500 in July 2017 after spotting him exclusively on YouTube, writes Athletic’s Dan Hayes. He supplemented his income by driving for Uber and excelled in the Twins’ system despite crushing speed or a knockout throw. For a 26-year-old who retired from independent prom, this deal represents life-changing money.
On the hill, suffice it to say that Dobnak has repeatedly overcome his underdog status to deliver valuable innings to Minnesota. He was a real eye-opener making his debut in the 2019 season, posting a 1.59 / 3.92 SIERA ERA in five starts and four relief appearances spanning 28 1/3 innings. Dobnak’s second season saw more ups and downs, but he still managed a 4.05 ERA / 4.56 SIERA in 10 starts spanning 46 2/3 innings. In 75 career innings in total, Dobnak has achieved an excellent ground ball rate of 58.8% with an equally encouraging 5.7% walk rate and a less than thrilling 15.7% take-out rate.
It certainly doesn’t fit the mold of today’s pitcher. His fastball lands in the 31st percentile for speed and the 5th percentile for spin rate. It is in the 13th percentile for odor rate and the fourth percentile for radiation rate. Nonetheless, he was better than average at dodging barrels and coaxing below average exit speed while burning worms and avoiding free passes.
The recipe has worked for Dobnak so far and has landed him a long-term home in Minnesota. His four-seam fast / pellet averaged just 91.4 mph, but a strong side-arm run proved particularly effective against righties. He reworked his slider and increased its usage in 2020 to promising results. As he begins the season in the bullpen, the twins’ rotation includes a number of veterans with histories of injuries. It is very unlikely the Twins won’t need access to their depth behind Kenta maeda, Jose berrios, Michael pineda, JA Happ, and the often injured Matt shoemaker. There’s a good chance the mustached, bespectacled and newly rich Twins right-hander will be called up for rounds en masse in 2021 and beyond.
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