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Two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic are now increasingly likely to develop into tropical depressions over the next five days. It is not yet clear whether either storm could pose a threat to Louisiana or the Gulf Coast.
The first disturbance has a 50% chance of cyclone formation within the next five days, and the second is currently at 40%. The categories, in order of increasing strength, are tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane (categories 1 to 5). Systems are named when they transform into a tropical storm. The next available name is Fred.
The orange areas on the graph at the top of this article show where a storm could develop, but these are not predicted tracks. The National Hurricane Center does not plot a course until a tropical depression forms or is about to form.
Here’s what the National Hurricane Center said about the tropics on Sunday.
Near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
An elongated low pressure area several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorderly showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a tropical depression over the next few days as it moves west-northwest at a speed of 10 to 15 mph.
The disturbance is expected to reach parts of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and near Hispaniola by mid-week.
The system has a 50% chance of transforming into at least one tropical depression within the next five days.
East Atlantic
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area over the tropical Atlantic about halfway between the islands of Cabo Verde and the Lesser Antilles have subsided this morning.
This system could turn into a tropical low again later this week as it moves west-southwest or west at around 10 mph.
The system has a 40% chance of transforming into at least one tropical depression within the next five days.
Name of the next storm
The next available name is Fred. Systems are named when they strengthen in tropical storms.
Tropical storms Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny and Elsa formed earlier this season. Elsa was the first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic Basin season.
Claudette grew in the Gulf of Mexico and poured several inches of rain on Slidell, inundating homes and streets.
Last year there were so many storms that forecasters ran out of names and had to use the Greek alphabet. This is only the second time in recorded history that Greek names have been used.
Things have changed for this season. If necessary, forecasters will use a list of additional storm names instead of the Greek names. See the full list.
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