Global oil demand threatened by electric cars and clean fuels

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said Tuesday that electric vehicles and more rational fuel technologies would reduce oil demand by 2040 more than expected, but that the world could still deal with an offer crisis for lack of sufficient investments in new productions.

The Parisian agency said in its 2018 World Energy Outlook: Oil demand is expected to peak before 2040.

According to the agency's main vision, demand will increase by about 1 million barrels a day on average until 2025, then stabilize at a more stable rate of 250,000 barrels a day until it reaches # 1. In 2040, where it will peak at 106.3 million barrels a day.

"According to the new policies, demand in 2040 has been adjusted upwards by more than a million barrels per day compared to last year 's forecast, mainly due to more growth. rapid short-term and changes in US policies on fuel consumption, "said the agency.

The IEA estimates that about 300 million electric vehicles will be operating on roads by 2040, unchanged from a year ago. But now plans to reduce demand by 3.3 million barrels a day, compared to 2.5 million barrels a day in previous estimates of the agency.

"Efficiency standards are more important to curb the growth of oil demand." The improvement in the efficiency of the fleet of non-electric vehicles will remove more than 9 million barrels of oil demand per year. day in 2040, "said the agency.

Demand for oil for transportation is expected to reach 44.9 million barrels per day by 2040, up from 41.2 million barrels per day in 2017, while industrial demand and petrochemicals are expected to reach 23.3 million barrels per day of bpj here 2040, against 17.8 million bpd in 2017..

Growth in global oil demand will come from developing economies, dominated by China and India, while demand from advanced economies is expected to fall by more than 400,000 barrels per day on average each year until the end of the year. in 2040, said the IEA.

On the supply side, the United States, the world's largest oil producer, will dominate growth in production until 2025, an increase of 5.2 million bpd from current levels in the world. 39, about 11.6 million bpd.

As of this year, the IEA expects a drop in US oil production and an OPEC market share ranging from 30% to 45% by 2040.

The agency said that new sources of supply would be needed, whether the demand increases or not.