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The Chinese currency yesterday recorded its lowest level against the US dollar in 11 months. For the first time since August, the yuan has reached a level of 6.7 against the dollar.
These developments come at a time of growing trade war between Beijing and Washington, where the world's two largest economies are preparing to launch retaliatory commercial tariffs. The US administration is expected to impose a tax of 25 % of 800 product categories And the Chinese government will impose a 25% tax on US products for the same amount on the same day.
The depreciation of the yuan in these circumstances will complicate some aspects of the economic landscape for the Chinese authorities, As the dollar turns for many For investors, as exchange rates rise and US interest rates rise safe haven, withdrawal of international capital from China to the United States.
Although the losses last month are 3.25%, In August, when the Chinese central bank suddenly let the currency fall by 3% against the US dollar, which led to the export large amounts of international capital from China. Big fears of a sharp decline in the Chinese economy, which means that the Lahn decline express the market forces more than the administrative interventions by the Chinese financial authorities.
However economists vary expert analyzes on the possibility of using China to lower the value of its currency as a means of current trade war with the United States.
The banking expert George David believes that the problem does not lie in the weak yuan but rather in the appreciation of the dollar. "We are now seeing the outflow of international investment from China and emerging economies in Asia," he explains, "the problem is the excessive attractiveness caused primarily by the rising dollar, rather than by fears of Asian currencies, including the yuan.We note that the Chinese central bank has taken no action for the yuan's status as Beijing understands that the problem is not in its currency, but in the US dollar "
He points out that it takes a while to see how the markets interact with Washington." On the other hand, RDL's CEO, Eric Rasel, believes that the depreciation of the yuan is in the # Interest of the Chinese economy and that it is not unlikely that the financial authorities in Beijing To turn a blind eye to this decline with T.
He adds to the & 1945 à à à à à 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945 "economic" that one of the biggest difficulties to which China is confused Today's currency is the devaluation of the yuan, the withdrawal of foreign capital, but in return, Chinese exports are more successful in world markets. While China's goods in US markets will remain more attractive to consumers than the United States, despite a 25% tariff increase due to the relatively low exchange rate of the Chinese currency.
However, most estimates suggest that China has no real interest in the sharp drop in its currency, as it will create negative indicators on the state of the Chinese economy and will increase tensions with the US administration. The Beijing financial authorities are willing to change the nature of the war with the United States and turn it into a currency war, making the economic landscape more complex and dangerous
. Pumping $ 100 billion into the financial system In order to remove international concerns about the health and robustness of its economy.
In fact, the problem is not only about the fall of the Chinese yuan, but talk about problems in the Chinese stock market is a concern for many international investors, "Since January, the Chinese stock market has fallen off. about 20%, which does not have much impact on foreign investment in the Chinese stock market, "he said. That the Chinese stock market has overthrown its counterpart in the United States E, where it has less macroeconomic links and play a limited role in the overall economic structure. "Indicates, however, that,
the decline of the Chinese stock market may be viewed as an uncomfortable indicator of the status of Chinese enterprises, and more importantly, the confidence of domestic consumers and investors in the situation economic.
Finding a definitive conclusion about the fate of the Chinese currency and even the Chinese economy right now can be more speculative than a scientific analysis.
The results of the first round of the trade war that will begin tomorrow between Washington and Beijing, will largely determine the future development of the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar, the nature of the reaction of the Chinese stock market and future trends not only of the Chinese economy but also of the international economy as a whole.
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