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A friend becomes an enemy this Saturday night (February 13, 2021) when undisputed Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defends his title against his US Top Team mate Gilbert Burns in the hand UFC 258 event, which will be broadcast live on ESPN + pay-per-view (PPV) from UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Earlier in the evening, Alexa Grasso is trying to spoil the return of top prospect Maycee Barber and bantamweight forwards Andre Ewell and Chris Gutierrez are stepping in on short notice to fill a vacant main card position.
Valentine’s Day is approaching and that means it’s time to hunt for gifts. Let’s increase this budget a little …
What went wrong UFC Vegas 18?
Would you like to watch this … we’re actually on set! Although I sorely underestimated Seung Woo Choi and Alexander Volkov, Timur Valiev, Lara Procopio and Alexander Pantoja all made up for a profitable event. While Cody Stamann’s last minute outing neutralized the victory somewhat, I’ll take what I can get.
UFC 258 odds for the Undercard:
Bobby Green (-260) vs. Jim Miller +220)
Rodolfo Vieira (-390) against Anthony Hernandez (+320)
Belal Muhammad (-400) vs. Dhiego Five (+325)
Mallory Martin (-155) vs. Polyana Viana (+135)
Ricky Simon (-250) vs. Brian Kelleher (+210)
Gabriel Green (-135) vs. Philip Rowe (+115)
Miranda Maverick (-140) vs. Gillian Robertson (+120)
Thoughts: It’s not the most fertile area of good business I’ve ever seen, but there is value to be found in Bobby Green, Belal Muhammad, and Miranda Maverick.
A wide attacker with excellent takedown defense is essentially the ideal archetype for defeating Jim Miller, even with the recent “A-10” return to form. As formidable as Miller may be in first place, he’ll have all kinds of difficulty fighting Green on the mat and keeping him there, and Green’s boxing seems more effective than Miller’s Muay Thai at this point. Green’s spreading and brawling efforts should have earned him the win over Thiago Moises and they actually will against Miller, so bet accordingly.
I will be very surprised if Belal Muhammad absolutely does not crush Dhiego Lima. Lima has shown some improvement lately, but Muhammad has the tools to exploit the fragile defense and mediocre wrestling that have cost Lima victory time and time again. “Remember the Name” victory over Tim Means proved he could cope with a height and reach a disadvantage, severely limiting Lima’s chances of victory.
In short, go big on Muhammad.
Gillian Robertson’s analysis of a fight can often be boiled down to a Boolean equation. If she can reliably make withdrawals, she wins. If she can’t, she loses. Maverick, a powerful wrestler who apparently came out of her early career struggles with the takedown defense, is much more efficient on the feet than “The Savage” and counts to dictate all wrestling rallies, making her a reliable investment.
Just to tone down the FOMO I got from not recommending bets on Julianna Pena and Clay Guida despite the calls being successful, try Gabe Green a bit as well. Philip Rowe is a severely flawed fighter, and while the same could be said of Green, “Gifted” has the volume and power to ruthlessly exploit Rowe’s defensive gaps.
UFC 258 odds for the main card:
Kamaru Usman (-280) vs. Gilbert Burns (+240)
Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Maycee Barber (+120)
Kelvin Gastelum (-230) vs. Ian Heinisch (+190)
Chris Gutierrez (-155) vs. Andre Ewell (+125)
Julian Marquez (-165) against Maki Pitolo (+145)
Thoughts: As someone who very much enjoys watching Andre Ewell ply his trade, Chris Gutierrez should be even more favored than -155. “Mr. Highlight” has yet to truly dominate a fight in the Octagon. Indeed, Ewell deserved the loss to Jonathan Martinez and only managed split decisions against the battered hull of Renan Barao and an Irwin Rivera under. -sized and underskilled. In other words, Gutierrez is going to tear him to pieces on his feet.
Best UFC 258 bets:
- Parlay – Belal Muhammad and Miranda Maverick: bet $ 60 to win $ 68.40
- Parlay – Bobby Green and Chris Gutierrez: bet $ 70 to win $ 89.60
- Parlay – Belal Muhammad and Gabe Green: bet $ 50 to win $ 59
UFC 258 isn’t the most stacked PPV ever, but there is some quality donnybrook here and there. See you on Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember, MMAmania.com will be offering live, turn-based, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 258 fight map to the right Here, starting from the beginning ESPN + Online ‘preliminary’ matches, which are scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. ET, then the remaining subcard balance on ESPN /ESPN + 8:00 p.m. ET, prior to the main PPV card start time at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN + PPV.
For the latest and greatest news from UFC 258: ‘Usman vs. Burns’, be sure to check out our full event archive. here.
Initial investment (reinforced) for 2021: $ 600
Current total for 2021: $ 400.47
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