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The first 2021 Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) title fight hits the pay-per-view (PPV) airwaves this Saturday, February 13, 2021 when welterweight champion Kamaru Usman meets his teammate Gilbert Burns become a burgeoning challenger in the UFC. APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main PPV card airing on ESPN + will also see Maycee Barber come back from injury against Alexa Grasso and Pedro Munhoz against Jimmie Rivera in what is set to be a brutal bantamweight war.
There are four UFC 258 “Prelims” undercard games left to review (check out the first batch here), so let’s take a look …
155 lbs: Bobby Green against. Jim miller
Bobby Green (27-11-1) – who had won only one of his previous seven fights – took the turn in 2020 with three straight wins and a “Fight of the Night” bonus. ‘King’ appeared to have gone 4-0 on the year against Thiago Moises in October 2020, but found himself on the wrong side of a controversial unanimous decision.
He is two inches taller than “A-10” at 5’10. “
Seemingly finished after a 1-5 skid, Jim Miller (32-15) showed he still has life left by winning three of his next four fights, including a bonus armband finish from the much-loved Roosevelt Roberts. Vinc Pichel has proven to be more difficult to break, successfully overtaking Miller at UFC 252 in August 2020.
His 22 professional stops include 18 submissions.
I will readily admit that I have prematurely counted Miller more than once, but simply performing above expectations won’t make him pass Green. “King” is a wrestler tough enough to hold him upright and holds a massive advantage in boxing, limiting Miller’s chances of crushing him with pressure or getting that deadly high-level match.
Green has recently increased his volume and Miller’s has shown an increasing tendency to fade late. Essentially, Miller needs an early arrival to win, and Green is notoriously hard to put away for anyone outside of Dustin Poirier. “King” gets back on track with an increasingly one-sided sprawl and brawl decision.
Prediction: green by unanimous decision
185 lbs: Rodolfo Vieira against. Anthony Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira (7-0) – one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu players to ever hit the mats – dominated during his time on the international MMA circuit before joining the UFC in 2019. He has typed Oskar Piechota after two rounds in his early octagon, then it took less than five minutes to do the same with Saparbeg Safarov in March 2020.
He subdued six professional opponents and stopped a seventh with G and Pound.
Things turned from bad to worse for Anthony Hernandez (7-2) when, after seeing his brutal knockout of Jordan Wright on “Contender Series” overturned due to a failed drug test, he was the victim of ‘an anaconda choke from Markus Perez in his early octagon. “Fluffy” bounced back with an anaconda finish from Jun Yong Park six months later, but fell to Kevin Holland in just 39 seconds his next time around.
He faces a two-inch reach disadvantage against “The Black Belt Hunter”.
While he’s probably the toughest opponent in Vieira’s mixed martial arts (MMA) career, it’s hard to see that going well for Hernandez. Perez, a very limited wrestler, was able to largely shut down Hernandez’s attack before eventually breaking his submission defense and securing the finish. A technical wizard and a physical powerhouse like Vieira should have a much easier time, and Hernandez’s perk won’t mean much if he can’t maintain it long enough to use it.
I really think “Fluffy” is better than he’s shown so far in the Octagon … or at least has higher potential. All that matters is what you manage in the cage, however, and what he has done suggests bad things about his chances. Ultimately, Vieira intimidates him on the mat for an early submission finish.
Prediction: Vieira via first round submission
170 pounds: Belal Muhammad | against. Dhiego five
Continuing the trend, here’s another one that was supposed to happen last year and fell apart after writing it already …
Belal Muhammad (17-3) put a 1-2 Octagon start behind him to win four in a row before coming up against soaring Geoff Neal last year. He has since organized another three-game winning streak, including a decision over Lyman Good in June 2020.
He gives up three inches of height and almost as much reach to Dhiego Lima (15-7).
A 1-3 skid made Lima bounce back from the UFC, and although he managed to find his way back through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 25, he followed a loss in the Finals with a decision loss to Yushin Okami. He enters the cage this Saturday on a three-game winning streak, and a win would mark his longest unbeaten run since 2011.
It marks his first appearance since defeating Luke Jumeau in October 2019.
I admit I seriously underestimate Lima in his recent endeavors, but Muhammad just seems wrong to him. “Remember the Name” is more than able to stand tall, especially as Lima’s fragility makes up for Muhammad’s lack of stopping power, and he has the kind of struggle that gave Lima matches in the past.
The only things Lima really has going for him here is height and reach, which Muhammad has proven he can cope with in his win over Tim Means. Whether he decides to mix it up on his feet or make his life easier with regular takedowns, Muhammad is heading for a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Muhammad by unanimous decision
115 pounds: Polyana Viana against. Mallory martin
A dominant submission victory over Maia Kahaunaele-Stevenson in her Octagon debut apparently had Polyana Viana (11-4) stand out, but the Brazilian lost her next three fights. She came tall with her back against the wall last August, grabbing Emily Whitmire in an armband to keep her Octagon career afloat.
All of his professional victories have come a long way, seven of them by submission.
Although her Contender Series victory over Micol di Segni didn’t earn Mallory Martin (7-3) a contract, she got her Octagon shot four months later stepping up on short notice against Virna Jandiroba. It didn’t go very well, as she tapped out a bare second-round rear choke, but a sophomore effort against Hannah Cifers saw Martin complete her second round to win the “Performance of the Night.”
She gives up an inch of height and three inches of reach to “Dama de Ferro”.
I put a lot more thought into this prediction than the opening bout of the first ‘Prelims’ probably deserves, but it upsets me that way. The two women are deeply flawed in a delightfully compatible way. Martin – although a powerful wrestler and functional striker – was almost triggered by Hannah Cifers the last time around. Viana, for her part, has the submissive game and the natural power to be a contestant, but continues to find ways to disappoint.
It’s a draw that will likely come down to who performs best.
Hey, fuck, I’m going to give Viana one last chance to impress me – cheat on me four times, shame on me. She appears to be the most capable striker and is dangerous enough on the pitch to potentially scare Martin off the shot, so expect her to be on her feet before landing a second-round club-and-sub.
Prediction: Viana via second round submission
UFC 258 features a quality main event and scattered potential firecrackers, making for a quality night of fights. See you on Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember, MMAmania.com will be offering live, turn-based, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 258 fight map to the right Here, starting from the beginning ESPN + Online ‘preliminary’ matches, which are scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. ET, then the remaining subcard balance on ESPN /ESPN + 8:00 p.m. ET, prior to the main PPV card start time at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN + PPV.
For the latest and greatest news from UFC 258: ‘Usman vs. Burns’, be sure to check out our full event archive. here.
Current UFC “Prelims” prediction record for 2021: 20-6
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