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The summer’s UFC hit fight takes place this weekend in Las Vegas, as Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor meet for the third time at UFC 264.
The rivalry is tied at 1-1, with a knockout on either side. McGregor (22-5) finished Poirier in the first round in 2014. Poirier (27-6) tied the game with a second round knockout at UFC 257 in January.
Saturday’s fight will not only be for the bragging rights between the two, but it will also shape the immediate future of the lightweight division. McGregor, 32, is looking to prove he’s still an elite talent, despite a 1-2 record since 2016. Whoever wins should move on to a title fight against Charles Oliveira, though it’s possible that McGregor is considering other options.
Ahead of this critical showdown, ESPN asked former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman, who analyzed the first two fights in this trilogy, to break down the keys to the game and pick a winner.
Editor’s Note: Weidman’s breakdown, as told to ESPN’s Brett Okamoto, has been edited for brevity and clarity.
McGregor’s position
One of the main things I noticed in the January fight was that Conor wasn’t in his typical karate stance, where he bounces up and down and tries to pull guys over to his big left hand. In this fight, it seemed like he was just walking forward and looking to box. It’s good for his punches, but it’s harder to check kicks in this type of stance. Poirier took advantage of this.
Conor was in a traditional boxing stance, looking to put a lot of pressure on Poirier. His hands were up and all the bases were good, but he wasn’t moving like we’ve seen him move before. I mean, watch Jose Aldo fight [in 2015]. Conor was just bouncing, bouncing, bouncing. It’s an uncomfortable feeling when you face a guy like that. It creates an overreaction, where you throw big punches that he can counter.
Grapple and cardio
I don’t think it’s a big secret Poirier wants to drain Conor’s cardio, and there’s nothing better for draining cardio than wrestling and wrestling exchanges.
Poirier shot him down early in the last fight, but Conor got back to his feet. He framed to control positioning and did a great job of staying relaxed. He ends up turning Poirier towards the cage. But even though Conor played really well in those trades, not allowing Poirier to do anything with his left hand, I just don’t think the stress of the position was comfortable for Conor.
I think Poirier will struggle as much as he can. Anytime there’s a clinch where he’s got Conor on the cage, that’s a good thing. Anytime he brings down Conor, or even gets into a scrum on the mat, in Poirier’s mind, it’s a victory for him. He looks at Conor’s stamina bar and waits for it to run out.
When Conor defended takedowns in the last fight, he didn’t immediately disengage and return to the center of the Octagon. I feel like he should. As soon as he is in one of these positions, there is no more need to play, relax and unwind. Just get out of the cage.
“Kick the kicker”
Conor’s only focus in the last fight was punches. Dustin was thinking of outs and kicks.
Conor really needs to start kicking the kicker. If you are just trying to box a kicker, his legs are longer than your arms, so the opponent is always going to connect before you. If you want to get in and box, you have to kick and fight your way first. You have to get the opponent to respect your kick. You can’t just move on.
During this last fight, Conor was unable to throw punches from a solid base after eating those kicks. You could see his right foot not moving, and he was in obvious pain. And Poirier started to pretend as it happened, his confidence rising. The fact that Conor grabbed a calf kick and then kicked a shit kick, you just knew he wasn’t himself at the time. The blows he threw were only arm strokes.
With Conor’s leg injured, Poirier started looking for the finish. Man, you don’t wanna get hurt against Dustin Poirier. His hands are so crisp when he goes after this arrival.
Trust
Watching the last fight, you could see Conor’s self-confidence.
But I don’t think there is any reason to question his confidence in this fight. Conor is known to handle pressure. At the same time, if you’ve just been knocked out and now you’re up against this guy again, that’s a lot of pressure. “What if it happened again?” There’s no question Conor is thinking.
But there is also a lot of pressure on Poirier. He looked amazing in January, but if he loses this fight, what does he have to stand on?
I would like to see old Conor again, with all that there is mental. I’d like to see him talk about garbage. He was so good at the mental war game and fought with extreme confidence. He got guys beat up before they even got in the cage and then he jumps in their face and gives them those crazy kicks. They just wanted to kill him, and that drove them to go above and beyond. This is where Conor is most dangerous.
Prediction
After watching their second fight, I have to go with Poirier. He mixes so much better than Conor, and you could see in January that Conor just didn’t have the same energy that we are used to seeing him have. This excitement. This fire. He’s always had this, where he just walks into the cage and says, “This is my cage.” You didn’t see this at his house the last time. So until Conor can prove me wrong, I have to go with Poirier.
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