UFC Ottawa Forecast – MMA Fighting



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Al Iaquinta has tasted what it's like to be a world title contender. Now he will have to beat the most experienced veteran of the UFC for another shot.

When Iaquinta enters the cage on Saturday for the UFC Ottawa's main lightweight tournament, he will face Donald Cerrone, a man who will make his 31st run to the Octagon and second since returning to the lightweight division in January. Iaquinta needs a win over Cerrone to stay in line for a rematch against Khabib Nurmagomedov, the current lightweight champion who won the title by defeating Iaquinta at UFC 223.

Iaquinta was a last-second substitute after a series of catastrophic events that eliminated opponents Tony Ferguson and Max Holloway. He played five rounds with Nurmagomedov. Despite a unanimous decision (and unable to compete for the vacant title because of his weight greater than that of the championship for a different fight), "Raging Al" showed that it could hold with the elite at 155 books.

Cerrone had also already competed for the lightweight title, losing in December 2015 via TKO against Rafael dos Anjos, and the 36-year-old is ready to make another run in a championship that would be a considerable feather in his already esteemed Cowboy. hat.

Saturday's main co-event also impacts competition for two middleweight veterans, Ontarians Elias Theodorou and Derek Brunson. Theodorou passed under the radar with a 8-2 record, his climb being limited by the absence of a signature and a big-name scalp.

He will aim for the top 10 with a win on Saturday, but Brunson will have something to say about it. The famous starter from the first round put together an impressive list of highlights, but he stumbled over and over again when he was paired with the elite at 185 pounds.

Cub Swanson and Shane Burgos seek to create featherweight fireworks, The ultimate fighter 27 Winner Brad Katona puts undefeated record against Merab Dvalishvili, heavyweight Walt Harris welcomes newcomer Sergey Spivak, and TKO two-division champion Marc-André Barriault makes his UFC debut against Andrew Sanchez.

What: UFC Ottawa

Or: Canadian Tire Center in Ottawa, Ontario

When: Saturday, May 4th. The preliminary six-fight card starts at 5 pm AND on the ESPN + streaming service and the main map of six fights continues at 20 hours. AND on ESPN +.


Donald Cerrone against Al Iaquinta

At a media scramble this week, Donald Cerrone pointed out that when he went from light weight to light welterweight three years ago, he was still ranked in the top three at 155 pounds. He certainly played an important role in his return to Alexander Hernandez, which made the beginner in the second round. Even at age 36, "Cowboy" is able to face almost any light or skillful fighter.

The problem with Cerrone has always been the slowness of the debut and the confrontation with opponents maybe a little more technical and a little faster than him, and Al Iaquinta meets this requirement, at least at this stage of their career . We saw the best version of "Raging Al" in his rematch with Kevin Lee, a power hitter with a great footwork and an excellent takedown defense.

This last quality will help him avoid Cerrone's always dangerous submission game and make it a stand-up affair, much to the delight of Canadian fans whom Cerrone never disappointed when he participated in the Far North. Iaquinta should also set the tone early and prevent Cerrone from engaging in any rhythm.

Another factor to consider is the cost that these reductions reduce to 155% for Cerrone. This is a much more natural weight category for Iaquinta and it's a benefit he will have in what is a tight paper contest.

Although it's possible to turn into a five-round slugfest, I like Iaquinta to have a knockout in the first three rounds.

To choose: Iaquinta

Elias Theodorou against Derek Brunson

How do you see this fight unfolding depends on whether you think that Derek Brunson can finish Elias Theodorou earlier. When he is at play, Brunson looks like a world champion. when he is not, he looks like a glorified guardian.

Theodorou is almost the opposite. On the contrary, the Torontonian has always had a fault, so calm and stable that one wonders if he had another speed to pass. Even if he does, do not expect him to go against Brunson. Theodorou is a fighter who takes his time and, in his own words, wants to show Brunson the difference between a sprint and a marathon.

Brunson has not won a decision in years, and a three-round fight should favor Theodorou, if only for his point-fighting ability. An ideal scenario for Theodorou sees him using a sharp defense and an evasive move to frustrate Brunson early and prepare him for a finish in the final round. More likely, this one runs the distance and Theodorou succeeds another decisive victory.

To choose: Theodorou

Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos

It is a classic fight of the "passage of the torch". You'd better believe that Cub Swanson will not make it easy for Shane Burgos to tear him from his bruised and hurt hands.

Burgos has everything you need for a future candidate at 145 pounds. He will accelerate the pace to prove that Swanson, respected as he is, is no longer in his league. The 28-year-old can swarm on a wounded opponent with the best of them. He will not show any pity if he feels for a moment that Swanson is on the verge of defeat.

Putting Swanson in a precarious position is the most delicate part. Yes, "Killer Cub" lost three times in a row, but these setbacks came against a trio of featherweight fighters in Renato Moicano, Frankie Edgar and Brian Ortega. There is no shame to lose for them and Swanson can not be too mentally shaken by these experiences. If this is the case, Burgos is in trouble because he does not have Swanson's great fighting experience. Few weights do.

This fight will live up to its fighting potential of the night and when the dust settles on the scale, it is Swanson whose strength of the following test will lead it to the victory.

To choose: Swanson

Brad Katona against Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili must be one of the most difficult prospects to evaluate at the moment. He entered the UFC as a highly fashionable product of Serra-Longo, but suffered heavy losses in his first two outings. His impressive fight was not enough to place him on the right side of a separate match against Frankie Saenz. He then suffered one of the strangest finishes in UFC history when he appeared to be about to rule against Ricky Simon. to be judged the loser after the bell rang when it was decided that he had fainted in a guillotine choke.

He reversed the situation against Terrion Ware, absolutely wounds him for three rounds, and if he shows this aggression on Saturday, it will be very useful to him and will inflict his first defeat to Brad Katona. Undefeated in eight professional fights, Katona seemed to be a solid prospect and he showed a legitimate growth in his first postTUFF fight. He is a powerful wrestler in his own right, but he probably loses to Dvalishvili.

Katona is the most disciplined striker. Like many young combatants with wrestling experience, Dvalishvili is more inclined to be punched (and in his case, to launch crazy shots) than to set up combinations and this will cost him unless he can not surprise Katona. I do not see that happening. Katona will work hard to defend herself and recover from downs, while finding opportunities to do damage and seduce the judges.

To choose: Katona

Sergey Spivak vs. Walt Harris

Sergey Spivak (Moldova) brings to his debut in Octagon the kind of killer instinct you like to see in heavyweights. At just 24, he has already faced and quickly finished two of the sport's iron men, Tony Lopez and Travis Fulton.

As for these two warriors, Walt Harris represents a considerable step forward in comparison with them and all those whom the young Spivak, aged 24, has had to face up to now. He won four fights during his second stint with the UFC and has shown great patience that complements his explosive potential.

None of the fighters will impress anyone with his gross volume, so we could be in reserve for a slow-paced methodical match in the first few minutes. However, when fists start to fly, the length and experience of Harris will make him quicker to punch and he will put Spivak on the count.

To choose: Harris

Andrew Sanchez against Marc-André Barriault

Andrew Sanchez is an excellent wrestler. The path to victory is clear: Link Marc-André Barriault, test his takedown defense and see if he has cardio to suspend for three rounds at the UFC. Fortunately for Barriault, he has already demonstrated that he is capable of winning five-round regional fights and that it would serve him well here.

Even if Sanchez can not defeat Barriault, he will fight with the French-Canadian fighter. This is not a wise strategy for him, because Barriault has heavy hands and he could also punish Sanchez for the land and the pound if he is ready to venture into Sanchez's care.

Barriault has for some time been considered a revolutionary Canadian star and I predict that his mix of heavy hand and heavy hand control will be enough to earn him his first UFC victory.

To choose: Barriault

undercard

Macy Chiasson def. Sarah Moras

Aiemann Zahabi def. Vince Morales

Nordine Taleb def. Kyle Prepolec

Kyle Nelson def. Matt Sayles

Arjan Bhullar def. Juan Adams

Mitch Gagnon def. Cole Smith

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