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This Saturday’s UFC Vegas 38 card is deviously good.
To fully appreciate this lineup, you’ll want to put aside any discussion of titles and ratings and all that boring stuff. No, the main light heavyweight event between Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker is just a fun game with a handful of stakes on the side.
For Santos, he wants to avoid a four-game losing streak that could knock him out of the circle of light heavyweight contenders for good and also cause a comeback to 185 pounds if it wasn’t already in the cards. Even if he only weakened against elite competition, four straight losses are still four straight losses.
For Walker, he only started to rebuild the hype he generated a few years ago when it looked like he was going to make his way to a title. Now is the time for him to prove whether he’s serious about being the best or whether he’s just happy to be a fun-to-throw fighter when the UFC matchmakers want to guarantee the action.
In another main card action, Alex Oliveira and Niko Price meet in a wild welterweight battle, Misha Cirkunov drops to 185 pounds to fight Krzysztof Jotko, and Alexander Hernandez takes on short-term newcomer Mike Breeden.
What: UFC Vegas 38
Or: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday October 2. The preliminary seven-fight card starts on ESPN + at 4 p.m. ET, followed by a five-fight main card on ESPN + at 7 p.m. ET.
(The numbers in parentheses indicate that you are World ranking of MMA fights)
Thiago Santos (8) vs. Johnny Walker
Time is running out for Thiago Santos, a 37-year-old kickboxer who has gone through great wars. But it is not yet time to count it.
As dangerous as Johnny Walker is at any given moment, the real question in this game is whether he is the better striker. Walker is a great athlete with speed and reach for days, he just has to put it all together. He has shown flashes, but has not proven that he can perform a full 15 minute performance. It’s the end or the bust for Walker.
“Marretta” won’t have it easy to deal with Walker’s physical gifts, but he has a habit of dropping the height at 205 pounds. Patience is a virtue and Santos has it in spades, which has seen him beat some of the top light heavyweights, including current UFC champion Jan Blachowicz. I think he’s more likely to force Walker to play his game than the other way around.
If you pick Walker to finish in the first or second round I don’t blame you, but if you think this one is more likely to go the distance, the choice has to be Santos.
To take: Santos
Kevin Holland (11) against Kyle daukaus
I still believe in Kevin Holland.
Wait, this sounds familiar.
Okay, I understand if there was a moment to jump off the Holland train, it would be after seeing him suffer back-to-back losses to grapplers who exposed the biggest hole in his game and then paired up with another grappling specialist. On paper, it’s a bad time for Holland and a major opportunity for Kyle Daukaus to overtake a few notable names in the middleweight division.
One factor I can’t ignore is how recklessly Holland took the Marvin Vettori fight just three weeks after being defeated by Derek Brunson. He said all it took about strengthening his withdrawal defense and then does he do it? There is no way he had time to make substantial improvements.
Fighting Daukaus with a full camp, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt once more. A guy with Holland’s talent, if he thinks about working on his wrestling I really believe he can smother Daukaus early on and keep him where he needs to be on his feet. So I go to Holland by KO in the first round.
If he gives up on another pointless decision, I swear this is the last time I will pick Holland to beat a wrestler. At least until the next time I do.
To take: Holland
Alex Oliveira vs. Niko Price
Look, I could pretend I know what’s going to happen in a fight between Alex Oliveira and Niko Price, or I could point you to this story about Oliveira advising Price on how to avoid ending up with 11 kids. You should definitely read this before continuing with the rest of these predictions.
Choosing a price fight is a crazy race. He’s so eager to throw caution to the wind that you might convince me to KO Kamar Usman on the right day, that’s how much I think about Price’s advantage. Add Oliveira, who is no stranger to savage fights, and you have a delicious recipe for mayhem.
Call it a draw, but I’m going with Price because I love his knockout potential. Oliveira, as sharp as her Muay Thai skills are, is not always the best at fighting strategically. If Price marks it, his first instinct will not be to reset, but to keep moving forward. This is the “Cowboy” way.
Your guess – and yes, it’s a guess – is as good as mine, if not better, but I’m going to go to Price by KO.
To take: Price
Misha Cirkunov vs. Krzysztof Jotko
You might not agree if you are a Misha Cirkunov fan, but I really like this matchmaking.
Although Cirkunov has had his moments with the light heavyweights, if he can consistently reach the middleweight limit comfortably, I see no reason why this move cannot deliver instant results. Krzysztof Jotko is not fooled, however. This is a first test about as difficult as they could realistically give Cirkunov in his new weight class.
Still, Cirkunov has a lot to gain here and I think he does. APEX’s smaller octagon will help it cut the distance and as long as Jotko is, it isn’t elusive enough to dodge Cirkunov’s grapple forever. Cirkunov’s submission game is good enough for him to have a 185-pound run and that run starts on Saturday.
To take: Cirkunov
Alexander Hernandez vs. Mike Breeden
It should be one-way traffic for Alexander Hernandez, compared to Mike Breeden, who steps in as a replacement opponent with less than a week’s notice.
Breeden is so upright when he fights, which will make him vulnerable to Hernandez’s struggle if he decides to go that route or open up to Hernandez’s powerful blows. Hernandez’s speed cannot be reduced here and you can expect him to pick up the pace early on.
Where Breeden might surprise Hernandez is with his counterattack. Sometimes Breeden looks like he’s barely moving, then he explodes with a combination or a flying strike. If he sometimes relies too much on his boxing, it’s for good reason. His hands are sharp and once he finds the scope he’s not afraid to let them fly.
The Hernandez big show experience is the key factor here. As long as he fights smart, it’s his fight to lose.
Hernandez by KO.
To take: Hernandez
Preliminaries
Joe Solecki beat. Jared gordon
Casey O’Neill beat. Antonina Shevchenko
Karol Rosa (12) defeated. Bethe correia
Devonte Smith beat. Jamie Mullarkey
Douglas Silva de Andrade beat. Gaetano Pirrello
Shanna Young beat. Stephanie Egger
Alejandro Perez beats. Johnny eduardo
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