UK says Covid-19 no longer spreads exponentially



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The coronavirus pandemic may no longer spread exponentially in the UK, according to government data suggesting the country’s third lockdown is working.

The official estimate of the “R-rate” – which measures the number of people to whom each infected person transmits the virus – has fallen to between 0.8 and 1, results showed released on Friday. When R is greater than 1, the virus spreads exponentially. Last week, the R rate was estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.3.

The government has said rates of cases remain “dangerously high” and urged the public to obey lockdown rules.

“There is a small minority who don’t, a small minority who flout the rules and don’t think they matter,” Environment Secretary George Eustice told Times Radio. “We can see this is important if you look at the pressure on hospitals right now.”

Nonetheless, the data will provide good news for Boris Johnson’s government, which was forced to place the country in another lockdown in early January after a new, highly contagious strain of the disease took hold.

Rate of decline

Figures from the Department of Health show that the estimated level of R has fallen in all parts of England since last week. In London, it fell to between 0.7 and 0.9, suggesting the disease is clearly on the decline in the capital, where hospitals are still under intense pressure. The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, reiterated his call on the government to strengthen regulation on Friday.

R-rate estimates are consistent with results from other sources. Earlier on Friday, statistics suggested the number of people infected with Covid-19 in England decreased slightly during the week through January 16.

Covid infection rates in England drop for first time in a month

Johnson’s government wants to start lifting restrictions once it immunizes 15 million of the most vulnerable people and their caregivers. But the prime minister signaled on Thursday that the fast-spreading variant could mean lockdown measures are needed until the summer.

Caution

Papers released Friday by the Government’s Science Advisory Group for Emergencies show that caution should be exercised even with an R-rate below 1. Scientists expect that, according to a document dated Jan.6, the prevalence of the virus decreases more slowly than during the first lockdown. last spring even if R remains below 1 until mid-February.

“As a result, it is very likely that the occupancy rate of the hospital will be at or above its current levels by mid-February,” he said. At the time, there were nearly 32,000 coronavirus patients in UK hospitals, according to government data, a figure that was already around a third higher than the peak of the first wave last April.

Officials have repeatedly said they expect cases to level off and decline in the current lockdown long before the rate of daily hospitalizations and deaths improves significantly.

(Updates with Eustice, Khan’s comments from the fourth paragraph)



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