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The hryvnia exchange rate in the case of the suspension of Ukraine's cooperation with the IMF already in 2018 can reach 31.8 UAH for one dollar. And if the situation is complemented by a fall in metal prices, the national currency will fall to 40.8 UAH to the dollar
These scenarios appear in the working papers on the "scenarios without the IMF" prepared by the National Bank at the request of the Council. On the eve of separate fragments of the relevant documents with the forecast of the course were published in the media and caused some concern.
In fact, the scenarios were prepared before the Verkhovna Rada voted to create the anti-corruption court. And the decision on this issue is known to have been key to Ukraine's cooperation with the IMF.
Thus, the pessimistic NBU scenarios at a rate of $ 40 per dollar reflected the regulator's concern over the eventual collapse of cooperation with the international creditor. What the NBU predicted
Hryvnia exchange rate
According to the presentation, the base scenario, in which Ukraine will continue to cooperate with the IMF, while the prices of metals in the global market will not fall, In 2018 the dollar will be at the level of 26.5 and in 2019 and – 27 UAH to the dollar
In case of termination of cooperation with the IMF, the national currency will fall to 31 , 8 UAH for one dollar at the end of 2018 and 33.7 at the end of 2019.
An even more difficult situation is expected in the event that the end of the cooperation with the Fund would accompany D & D A simultaneous drop in metal prices. In this case, in 2018, the hryvnia could fall to 40.8 USD for a dollar and at the end of 2019 39.4 UAH for a dollar.
The consumer price index, according to the basic scenario of the NBU, is expected to increase by 8, 9% in annual terms in 2018. Without cooperation with the IMF, it will reach 13.1%, and if this is supplemented by falling metal prices, inflation will be 17.5%.
Price
By 2019, in the baseline scenario, inflation should be 5.8%. Without the IMF, it could reach 13.2% and in the absence of cooperation with the IMF and lower prices of metals, prices would increase by 17.6%.
Foreign currency
International reserves of gold and foreign currency in the absence of cooperation with the IMF already in 2018 could fall to 15.4 billion, and in 2019 they will be 9 billion dollars
If the lack of cooperation with the IMF will be complemented by the fall in metal prices, in 2019, the ZVR will fall to $ 7.4 billion. 19659003] Budget
The presentation also notes that the lack of IMF program makes fundraising impossible in the EU and around the world. The bank, and given the decline in the appetite of international investors for the debts of developing countries, the issuance of Eurobonds by Ukraine in the scenario without the IMF in 2018-2019 is unlikely.
The NBU also noted that Thus, in the absence of Eurobond placement, the government's foreign exchange account will be reduced to zero in June and it will miss $ 2 billion to honor its commitments outdoor by the end of the year.
Devaluation
Context budgetary problems and The reduction of the IMF program can significantly worsen the panic mood of the population, which will lead to a sharp devaluation of the hryvnia (in circumstances where the NBU will be forced to & dquo; Save foreign exchange reserves due to large repayments of external debt in 2019.
charge on the government and the private sector.
Oksana Matveichuk on the materials of the UP
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