[ad_1]
President Donald Trump on Friday convened a Rose Garden celebration of economic data showing a 4.1% growth in gross domestic product in the second quarter.
Here's a glimpse of what Trump said, White House Council of Economic Counselors president Kevin Hassett and National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow and the veracity of their comments.
Trump: "We are on track to achieve the highest average annual growth rate in more than 13 years."
POSSIBLY. The United States grew by 2.9% in 2015, which seems to be a success, but it is absolutely not certain. The fastest GDP growth before that was 3.5%, achieved in 2005.
Trump: "I'll say it right away, and I'll say it forcefully because the trade agreements arrive one by one, we will go much higher than these numbers. "
LITTLE PROBABLE. First, what seems likely, it's a slight tinker with current trade agreements – the North American Free Trade Agreement could be renegotiated by next month, and there's had some progress this week with the European Union. There is a real risk of business deterioration because of the stalemate with China because the tariffs have just come into force. An economist, Bricklin Dwyer, of BNP Paribas, estimated that the GDP report was likely to reach a record high.
Trump: "We are now on track to reach an average annual GDP of more than 3%, and it could be substantially above 3%."
TRUE. Take growth of 2.2% in the first quarter and the rate of 4.1% of the second, and it rises on average to 3.15%. Macroeconomic advisers forecast Friday GDP growth of 3.1% in the third quarter. Growth in 2018 north of 3% seems eminently achievable, as long as there is no drop in the fourth quarter.
Trump: "Every point, by the way, means $ 3 trillion and 10 million jobs." Think about it. "Each point you go up one point, it does not look like not much.It's a lot. "
POSSIBLY. This must be a 10-year projection – a typical window used for budget forecasts.
Trump: "Since I was elected, we have added 400,000 new manufacturing jobs.Remember, it was obsolete business.J & # 39; had the habit of saying, "Why is it obsolete?" We need to do things, manufacturing jobs are among our best jobs. "
PRETTY CLOSE. According to official figures, if you measure from November 2016, while President Obama was still in power, there are 374,000 new jobs in the manufacturing sector.
Hassett: "You said you were going to reduce the trade deficit, and you did." The $ 50 billion trade deficit reduction proves that if you defend US workers and that your allies know that agreements that are not reciprocal are unacceptable, then you can make a lot of progress. "
VERY MUCH. Exports of agricultural products like soy pulled higher because farmers were racing to beat the imposition of Chinese tariffs. They have already fallen in June. There is absolutely no evidence that the United States is trading on better terms than it has before.
Kudlow: "These tax cuts, especially on the corporate and investment side, will boost wages, livelihoods, and jobs for ordinary workers. Middle American, it's starting to take effect, it's a boom that will be sustainable, frankly, as far as the eye can see. "
ROSY-EYED. Kudlow had talked about business investment at the Rose Garden ceremony, but the gains seemed to come from spending on structures – that is, oil wells and wells, a response to the improvement of oil prices. Core capital order growth, while strong, slowed relative to the strong pace of last year. Moreover, real wages of workers do not increase, which should limit the benefits of consumption.
Related Links: Wages are not growing after adjusting for inflation, new data
Source link
