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The 2.2% decline in the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar in July was produced under the influence of cyclical factors in the political world, according to Bohdan Danylyshyn, chairman of the National Bank's board of directors. # 39; Ukraine.
In August, the dollar hryvnia is expected to stabilize, said the chairman of the board of the National Bank of Ukraine Bohdan Danylyshyn on July 31.
"Recently, many" experts "give their forecasts of the situation on the foreign exchange market.The decline of the hryvnia against the US dollar of 2.2%, observed in July, was influenced by factors that are more likely to have a negative impact on the US dollar .. situational character, whose strength of influence is close As he said, the world's central banks have focused on raising their key rates since the end of 2017.
"For example, the US Federal Reserve has raised the basic interest rate several times since the end of last year, which stood between 1 , 75 and 2% per annum, resulting in a capital outflow from emerging markets as capital attraction became more expensive, and this capital was mainly driven by the United States and Japan. The situation was squeezing the budgets and currencies of developing countries and, as a result, it affected the price of the national currency of Ukraine – in the summer, the volatility of the hryvnia with a tendency to decrease the rate has increased . The exchange rate of the national currency is currently a general trend for developing countries.
"The trend has not even increased the Chinese yuan, which, for the first time since December 2017, fell to 6.6 yuan per US dollar.However, the influence of the rate of inflation of interest from the Fed is gradually decreasing, and given that US GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 4% is expected to slow down in the third and fourth quarters of 2018, and given the upcoming legislative elections (scheduled for November), the probability of a further rise in the FRS rate in one or two months is unlikely, "- said the head of the council of the NBU.
According to Danylyshyn, the capital outflows of the countries have occurred as an outflow of foreign portfolio investment
"In Ukraine during the course of July this was observed in the form of repayment massively denominated in hryvnia. funds, they converted the hryvnia into foreign currency, which led to an increase in demand for it.However, the peak of payments on the OVDP hryvnia in favor of non-residents came in July, in August 2018 the volume the expected repayment of non-resident OVDP is moderate.In addition, some additional demand for foreign currencies has been observed due to the high amounts of VAT refund.In view of the weakening of the Fed and the low level of repayment of government bonds to the benefit of non-residents, Ukrainian agricultural exports are expected to start at the end of summer.In August, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market inien should be relatively balanced. , – summarized the chairman of the NBU board
On July 30, the official exchange rate of hryvnia against the dollar fell by 11 cents the euro – increased from 39, a similar amount. I am unchanged at 26.76 UAH / $ The hryvnia in the euro fell 15 kopecks – from 31.11 to 31.26 UAH / €
According to forecasts of the National Bank, 2018 The inflation will be 8, 9%
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