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Lilia ShevtsovaPrincipal Investigator at the Carnegie Center of Moscow
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Bulletin
Photo: EPA
Putin besieged people from all sides: Russia is approaching an apocalypse
President Vladimir Putin's new politics of politics strikes the dullest half and the weakest in Russian society, so people who wanted to see how the ruling elite stole the country started to go out on the streets, and if the Kremlin does not propose a new movement that will bring people together tired before the threat, then Russia is waiting for an apocalyptic scenario.
About the domestic policy of the Kremlin
When he is out of breath … It is the state in which he was Russia The The countdown to Vladimir Putin's new presidency began, and he was chosen with deafening success and fanfare, and even a rebellious Moscow managed to tighten the polls and get him to vote for Putin. 6% vote of Putin devaien t give the president the legitimacy of a safe board of directors and any decision. Sergei Kiriyenko, deputy head of the Kremlin administration, who forged Putin's victory, even received the hero of Russia for her. That's right, the secret that gives the reward a sense of shame.
But suddenly, in a few months, Putin's note went off, falling by 15% in a few weeks. The impression of a landslide victory began to evaporate, giving way to confusion and nervousness
The World Football Championship, which Putin was looking for so much and that Russia n & # 39; 39; did not like (given the corruption of FIFA), was to become a new crescendo. Just like the 2014 Olympic Games, which gave impetus to the rise of Putin's popularity even before the annexation of Crimea. But Mundial was an empty escape. Putin has not found interest in football. The Kremlin could not care how to use sight to maintain the chef's popularity. And when Putin came to the stadium, he did not know what to do with him. It was dark in the rain and, over it, he opened the umbrella, leaving the presidents of France and Croatia in the shower. Humanly, they looked wet, but happy Macron and the handsome Grabar-Kitarovich, squeezing their players! And since Putin looked stupid, he was clearly angry at what seemed to be the place where human emotions were to manifest themselves. And do not show power and power.
About Putin's Foreign Policy
The international plan is the same as in the interior of the country. It seems that the Kremlin has succeeded in foreign policy. But in fact, they turn slightly into dust.
Yes, despite the sanctions, Russia has started to become world leaders. McRon has arrived several times. Even Mr Merkel, who for many years maintained the sanctioned unity of the West, visited Putin. He says that Putin's international isolation has ended. The "cherry on the cake" was to be Putin's summit with Trump, whom the Kremlin had been looking for for a long time. Indeed, these summits are still proof of the role of the Russian state.
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It was obvious that Putin was prepared for the summit. However, without that, he had every chance to hang Tramp anyway noodles. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, apparently had reasons to evaluate the outcome of the negotiations (without witnesses) with Putin and Trump: "Better than super!" Everything has spoiled their press conference, which will long provoke the horror of the American public, by showing the American president as a poodle of Putin. However, after Trump's return to Washington, it became clear that instead of victory and "arrangements", the Kremlin got an empty basket. Instead of following the "agreements" (notably in Syria and Ukraine), Washington launched the "Crimean Declaration" on the perpetual non-recognition of Crimea by Russia, and the US Congress, in retaliation for Trump, began to prepare a new package of sanctions against Russia. At an annual meeting with Russian ambassadors, Putin was forced to complain that "some forces are trying to humiliate and disavow the results of the Helsinki meeting"
The people are indignant, but the tsunami is still far
in the unlimited support of the president. It is this trust that has allowed the authorities to decide to hang on to the citizens in their pockets. In addition, climb to the bottom. I mean several Kremlin decisions that were timed at the start of the World Cup. The reasoning of the Kremlin was simple: people are captured by the show and everything goes wrong. And when the population pops up, it will be late. The Kremlin announced a pension reform, namely, an increase in the retirement age, which means in the current demographic situation in Russia, the reduction in the number of pensioners. It was decided to increase the VAT by 20%, which will immediately trigger a price increase. We add to this rise in the price of gasoline, which still leads to explosive inflation.
The Kremlin needs money. A lot of money: both for the two wars (in Donbass and Syria), and in Crimea, and for Putin's favorite projects such as the football championship and the ongoing construction of pipelines. The Kremlin decided to fill the budget to the detriment of the citizens, at the same time supporting the corporations and the presidential friends.
Putin's electorate, that is to say the weakest and weakest word of society, retired and state employee. The authorities have imposed them from all sides – from the steady increase in tariffs for utilities to pet taxes. We decided to scrape everything possible from cradles and pillowcases. The Levada Center's social mood index shows that in recent months the Russian's negative assessment of their financial situation and their economic situation in the country has increased by 10%. It is clear that people started to be alive. People started to go out on the streets, even in small, sleepy cities.
So, while the social tsunami in Russia is still far away, why there are many reasons. Only the principal are called. The memory of the collapse of the state in 1991 remains a factor that dampens emotions. The Russians no longer want to go through a state rally. Just as important is the lack of a clear alternative to Putin and his policies, which would have given credibility to broader layers. In addition, the situation of disorientation and demoralization in the world, while liberal democracy was in crisis, does not stimulate a breakthrough towards democracy and liberalism.
And yet, there is something that should seriously worry the Russian authorities. The Kremlin loses the most effective survival tool – the willingness of the population to confront the West, the outside world and live in a besieged fortress. Polls in Levada's center over the last few months are showing amazing results. Thus, 54% of respondents want to normalize Russia's relations with the West. Only 18% of Russians want a confrontation with America and only 14% are ready to support the expansion of Russia into the nearest post-Soviet space. 56% of Russians believe that the state is a structure that guarantees the welfare of its citizens, rather than hitting the glass of its neighbors. Everything says that people are tired of the confrontation with the world. People want a normal life.
And if that is the case, the Kremlin had no trump in his pocket. There is no idea that would legitimize the endless rule of a person and his campaign. Or the Kremlin will have to look for a new order that would get people tired before the threat. In this case we can talk about an apocalyptic scenario.
Russia ends its summer this year as growing dissatisfaction. People are tired of seeing how the ruling elite is pulling the country. However, despair always prevails in mass consciousness. But sooner or later will come a time when despair will be an inevitable revenge. And then it will not be enough. When people endure patience – it is not clear. What is going to happen right now is not clear. But the country is deafening and roars dangerously …
Source: Apostrophe
The opinions of the authors of the section "Thoughts out loud" do not always coincide with the position of the editorial board of "Glavcoma"
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