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Kevin McCarthy has explanations to make.
As the Californian Republican prepares to lead the GOP of the House of Representatives of the minority, it is ironic that the Republicans of his state were hit hard in the elections.
From the last races of the 2018 mid-term, California Republican Representative David Valadao was re-elected as TJ Cox Democrat this week, becoming the 40th Republican to have his seat swing during this election cycle – and seven of them took place in California.
It was a hack, and McCarthy played a central role. Over the past two years, he has built close relationships with President Donald Trump. As the majority leader in the House, McCarthy encouraged even the most vulnerable Californian Republicans to remain closely tied to the party.
California Republicans voted overwhelmingly for the Obamacare House, repealing the bill that would have devastated the state's health care system and the GOP's tax law that puts taxpayers at a disadvantage in states like California . McCarthy let Trump's ambitious immigration program upset the party, even as California Republicans saw their districts diversify.
In May, I wrote that McCarthy's allegiance to Trump and his program would likely remain between him and the presidency. At the time, Kurt Bardella, a former congressional congressional advisor and Breitbart News staff member who now identifies himself as a Democrat, made a prediction:
"The next speaker may be from California but it will not be Kevin McCarthy, "Bardella said.
Seven months later, McCarthy is the face of a crushing defeat. Democrat Nancy Pelosi is ready for the presidency, and he is the leader of the minority.
McCarthy was optimistic about the chances of Republicans midway through. He was wrong.
The signs of the blue wave that hit California appeared early when representatives Darrell Issa and Ed Royce, Republicans in districts won by Hillary Clinton, announced their retirement. But McCarthy refused to recognize him.
"You know, when I think of retirement, I consider the retirements of Republicans who retired in seats occupied by Hillary Clinton and Democrats who retired in seats that Donald Trump has occupied. the number is? Five to four, "McCarthy said in an interview with Frank Luntz, GOP strategist, at an event organized by the Milken Institute in May, which predicted that House Republicans would keep the majority. We will have two seats in Minnesota. "
The Republicans ended up overthrowing two seats in Minnesota, but the Democrats too.The multitude of Republicans who retire in 2018 has not only shone on the radar; doors to Democrats across the country, including California, where Democrats Mike Levin and Gil Cisneros have been able to separate from the sieges of retired Issa and Royce in the southern suburbs of California.
That's not is not stopped here Only seven of the 14 Republicans of the California Congress delegation will return to the House in January Democrats overthrew Trump's districts, campaigning for health care, immigration n and against the bill of the taxes of the republicans
McCarthy had to change of tone.
"There is no doubt that there is still work to be done after these election results and we intend to move forward," McCarthy said in a statement.
McCarthy is a Trump man. Trump's program is really bad for California.
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The 14 California Republicans voted in favor of the House's Obamacare Bill, a proposal that would have cut $ 880 billion from Medicaid, a program that covers 13.4 million Californians in the largest program Medicaid of the country. To put this in context, 50% of the Republic's voters, David Valadao, use this program, located in a Central Valley district in the San Joaquin Valley and more than 70% Hispanic. Valadao lost his reelection.
All but two – Issa and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) – voted for the GOP tax law. The law limits the deduction for income and real property to $ 10,000 and reduces the mortgage interest deduction for new loans issued from $ 1 million to $ 750,000.
In cities like Orange County Orange in the suburbs of Irvine, for example, 46 percent of residents receive state and local tax deductions, according to the Tax Policy Center. The median price of his dwelling in his district is $ 685,800. Only 36% of California's likely voters approve of Republican tax law, while 58% disagree. Walters and Rohrabacher have both lost their reelection. The seat of Issa has also been attributed to a Democrat.
The dangers of sticking to Trump's program were perhaps more evident in immigration, an issue on which Trump drew the Republican party quite right and that the government of the state of California has taken a step back.
Growing minority populations in historically white regions like Orange County have drastically reduced Republican benefits in traditionally more conservative districts. In the Central Valley, expulsions and the fear of expulsion threaten local economies. According to a poll conducted in October by the Public Policy Institute of California, 52 percent of potential voters in California support local and state government policies to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants.
"Immigration is their Achilles Heel; That's why [Republicans] can never win the elections, "Bardella told me in May. "This is a measurable trajectory on the evolution of demographics in California. Especially when it comes to immigration … it confuses me with their reluctance to change policies. "
Valadao and the representative Jeff Denham, who mainly represent Hispanic districts of the Central Valley, where deportations are highly visible, have attempted better moderate positions on immigration, but none has been Democrats considered it an act of deference to Republican leaders, and both lost their re-election.
McCarthy's Tainted Ascension
McCarthy was easily re-elected to his conservative stronghold centered in Bakersfield, Washington. California has always been more of a party man than a political brain – a prolific fundraiser that, in the last few weeks of the election, has transferred $ 5.7 million to groups from the United States. party to put the Republicans at the end of the finish line.
That was not enough.
During the last decade, McCarthy, who had ambitions for Well-defined presidents for the post of president, saw the Republican delegation of California pass from 19 to 19 seats in 2010.
The state's demographics are moving away from Republicans and more and more. State is increasingly rooted in a culture of partisanship.
The Outgrowth is a group of countries that attaches to party poles, a reality McCarthy represents very clearly. Trump still has an 80% approval rate among California Republicans, albeit it stands around 36% in October 2002.
Democrats control all offices of the state and have increases in both houses of parliament. A 2014 study of the American Political Science Association showed that California is by far the most polarized parliament in the country. And because of the open primary system the Californian Republicans were unable to run a Senate candidate in the 2018 general election.
McCarthy may have been chosen as a Republican of the first rank. But his condition played a big role in making him the leader of the minority.
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