"Great Chicken Game": Democratic Convulsions Shake Alignment for 2020

"It's like rats in a Skinner maze," said Hank Sheinkopf, a New York-based Democratic strategist. "Who goes to the end is a function of who has the best luck, who has the most money and who does not annoy the media."

The Democratic primary field announces if vast and fluid that the loss Patrick, a former governor, hardly makes a difference – there remain six other current or former governors in the group. The release of Avenatti on Tuesday will eliminate an outsider and a fierce criticism of Trump, but it is also a way that few people plan to occupy once the defined field. As for Biden, former vice president and first favorite of the national polls, his tease has generated a lot of heat, without however illuminating his thinking about his intention to enter the race.

Over the next six weeks, said Bill Burton, Democratic and veteran strategist for the Obama White House, "I think the number of people who we believe will run for president is going to to contract … already 20 or 30 people in circulation who envisage it. All are not going to run. "

But as potential contenders begin to fall, others take their place. In the latest expression of Democrats' post-mid-point euphoria, Colorado state radio reported this week that Senator Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) Is seriously reflecting on a campaign for 2020. Senator Bob Casey (D-Colo.) -Pa.), Who did not sign up for the 2020 radar before his decisive victory in the reelection in November, recently said that he was "open to all possibilities".

"There are so many names now … You wonder who is really serious and who just does it to get more visibility, whether it's a TV host, a radio syndication, a book contract," he said. said Matt Barron, Massachusetts-based political consultant who worked on the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama and John Kerry.

Barron said the scope of the field – and its tumult – was an opportunity for the most discreet candidates, which could explain why Bennet, Casey or a number of Democrats might not rule out a campaign.

With a larger field, he said, "If someone can win with a smaller piece of pie, then, mathematically, it seems easier … In a large field, it's only missing. a smaller slice. "

Intermediate candidates should not announce their nominations before the start of 2019, which will allow them to enjoy a full quarter of fundraising before declaring the number of However, while Democrats are trying to recruit staff in the major primary states, some candidates may be forced to announce their candidacy earlier.

"I think the game is very big and there are campaigns going on to get commitments from the staff, and I think [staffers] are reluctant to dive before they know what's really going on with a candidate," said Jeff Link, Democratic strategist in Iowa. "So, if these campaigns are nervous about engaging staff, it could increase the schedule."

"He said:" To have 30 candidates is probably not viable, but I think we will have more than 15. "

Avenatti and Patrick, like potential rivals that They have left behind them, set the stage for 2020 for months and the transition to a more open campaign began immediately after the mid-term elections, but the outbreak of activity this week – clearly between Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays – again surprised some observers.On most elections, a potential candidate, the former Mayor of San Antonio, Julián Castro, told an audience in San Diego that the campaigns were squeezed during the holidays, before returning to service in January.

But this week's events a general focus on the even minor progressions of the campaign – reflects the speed with which the Democrats are about 2020, less than a month after the mid-term elections.

"It's going to be such a thing," said Matt. Bennett, from the left-wing group "Third Way", lamenting the likelihood of an immediate passage in 2020 in the shadow of Democrats arriving in Washington with a majority in the House.

"What I hope and that the party should hope for is that [House Democrats] take a few moments in the sun before the 2020ers erase them," Bennett said. hope that they will have a small chance to express a vision of the country in the lead up to a new Congress, before the Congress starts, she said she said, he said, he said, she said "start."

Still, he predicted that nothing could stop the 2020 tsunami candidate: "It will be like:" Coming out of Des Moines: Kamala Harris sneezed three times "… And meanwhile, we have people who are struggling to change the direction of the country.It is difficult to attract attention. "

Mr. Biden declared to be the" most qualified "during an appearance Monday at the University from Montana to Missoula Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina-based Democratic strategist who worked for Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2016, said Biden's statement was an exercise in "ramping up to decelerate."

"Biden is active in trying to clear the ground, so if Seawright said:

Over the next six weeks, many Democrats wanting to run for presidency will likely give up their efforts after determining that & # They are not competitive, but even then they will contribute to the frenzy of the 2020 campaign.

In the case of Patrick, who participated in an event recently organized by Seawright in South Carolina, Former presidential candidate will immediately join another draw.

Seawright said, "He will be on the longest and longest list of VPs, if not everyone."