where he can bring Ukraine
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Western observers observe the situation in Ukraine on the eve of the elections and scrutinize the candidates for the presidency. 56-year-old Yulia Tymoshenko is in the center of attention as she is among the leaders in the presidential ranking. The Politico edition has put it on the list of 28 personalities who will influence Europe next year, but we do not know which side Tymoshenko will set up. Political analyst Andreas Umland, in an article from the Atlantic Council's Analysis Center, lists a number of reasons why Tymoshenko's presidency may not be so bad for the West. The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, describes how Tymoshenko was seeking Western support for Washington.
Timoshenko – leader of the presidential class
The former Prime Minister of Ukraine and leader of the Batkivshchyna Party Yulia Tymoshenko is currently among the leaders in the presidential ranking.
According to a sociological survey on the electoral attitudes of the population with regard to the presidential election in the first round, if the presidential election was held in November, 21.2% of voters would vote for Yulia Tymoshenko. which is determined by the candidate idatom). By Volodymyr Zelensky – 14.6%, by Petro Poroshenko – 11.6%.
This was reported by the International Institute of Sociology of Kiev, the survey conducted from November 23 to December 3
How can Tymoshenko influence Europe?
Each year, the Brussels edition of Politico proposes a list of 28 personalities who will affect Europe next year. Yulia Tymoshenko is currently one of them
The future of Ukraine is not the only one to be tied to its political ambitions. Ukraine is in a state of war and the participation of Tymoshenko in the presidential campaign has consequences far beyond the borders of Ukraine, the authors note. If they win elections, they can change the geopolitical order, including relations between Russia and the West, they note.
Nobody knows where Ukraine will take Tymoshenko: as promised, in the direction of the EU and NATO, or in the direction of Moscow – which criticism l? accuses, she says she's already done it before. If he wins the elections, it will depend on the end of the war with Russia. The analysis also indicates that the responsibility for restoring peace in Europe will also be in his hands.
In a country suffering from a corrupt legacy of Soviet communism and a crumbling economy, Tymoshenko's campaign is based on "bread and oil": education, pensions, jobs , Gas prices and electricity, health care and, of course, the fight against corruption.
However, his campaign is very controversial, but it is unlikely that anyone will be surprised by a country that is fed up with broken promises, the authors wrote. For example, it promises to rebuild the economy, but is opposed to major Ukrainian lenders, especially the International Monetary Fund, by removing the sharp increase in domestic tariffs on gas. Or she wishes to achieve peace with Russia from the rank of force, while placing Ukraine on the path to membership of the EU and NATO.
"Like other great sharks in Ukrainian affairs and politics, Tymoshenko built her fortune in a ruthless and corrupt business – natural gas – she called herself" the princess of gas. " former business partner and political ally, Pavel Lazarenko, who was also prime minister, was sentenced to money laundering by the United States and to other charges of theft of approximately $ 200 million from the Ukrainian budget, "says the article. 19659013] Party leader "Hromada" Pavel Lazarenko and head of the shadow cabinet of the party "Hromada" Yulia Tymoshenko at the party congress in Kiev, 1997 "src =" https://gdb.rferl.org/0AB9A013-FC74 -48FC-AF0C-B51A860DBACB_w250_r0_s.jpg "/>
The leader of the party "Hromada" Pavel Lazarenko and the president of the shadow cabinet "Hromada" at the party congress in Kiev I, 1997
Tymoshenko has never been accused of certain crimes of Lazarenko. "At best, its opponents see it as a chain of a long-time corrupt and oligarchic system of the country and, at worst, as a secret ally of the Kremlin who is trying to help Russian President Vladimir Putin in his attempt to conquer Ukraine to rebuild the Russian empire, "write the authors.
"Western powers, particularly the United States, have been working hard to prevent it from returning to political life after its release from prison in 2014, considering that it is was an obstacle to reform, "the analysis said.
On which version of Tymoshenko will be present. Tymoshenko will determine the race of the president.
Benjamin Gaddat (researcher at the Hudson Institute): "An old song," says the banner.
Tymoshenko is not so bad for the West
Expert in Politics of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, German Political scientist Andreas Umland in an article from Atlantic Council's analysis center explains why Tymoshenko's presidency may not be presided it is already a bad option for the West.
First, Tymoshenko can become the first female president of the Eastern Slavic world. This will be a remarkable achievement in the context of the culture of orthodox Christian civilization, which historically did not support the power of women. (The first woman to be elected to the presidency in Georgia – ed.)
Secondly, Tymoshenko was able to build a pro-Western "Fatherland" party over the last 20 years, which has strengthened Ukrainian democracy. This party is popular not by the personality of Tymoshenko, but also by its socio-economic initiatives. In addition, "Batkivshchyna" has active regional and local branches and is an official partner of the European People's Party – a large family of Christian Democratic parties within the EU.
Thirdly, although Tymoshenko belongs to the old cohort of personalities named Leonid Kuchma, she is no less different from theirs, as evidenced by her imprisonment – she is a female politician Opposition that embodies the fear that hangs over its opponents because of its determination and not simply of illegal behavior.
Fourth: in recent months, Tymoshenko and his party joined the ex series said the Umland.
Of course, none of these circumstances guarantees Tymoshenko's good presidency. The questions raise the costs of his political campaigns and what that means for his potential presidency. But "given that she is likely to win, these aspects of Timoshenko's biography can serve as a basis for a constructive discussion between her, Ukrainian civil society and Western actors," Umland points out.
"Tymoshenko was criticized for his populist attitude, unrealistic social plans and, apparently, unhelpful behavior in parliament, but this is not uncommon for Western opposition parties outside the government. Western parties will adapt after the success of the elections, Tymoshenko and his team will significantly adjust their positions when they come to power … The government of Tymoshenko will probably be more productive than supposed with the IMF, the EU and other donors, on the basis of their current electoral rhetoric, "writes Umland
The West should therefore review Tymoshenko's program and create a channel of communication with her in a new window of opportunity,
Tymoshenko in search of support in the United States
In the US edition The wa The Street Journal describes meanwhile the visit of T imochenko in Washington.
The former energy tycoon, in power for nearly two decades, attempted to present himself in Washington as a reliable partner against Russian aggression, said in an article [19659004] in an interview with the publication, said that former campaign leader Donald Trump Paul Manawort has secretly hired a group of former European leaders in 2012 to discredit her. Therefore, its objective is not only to alleviate US fears about its past, but also to urge the US to support its diplomatic settlement initiative with Russia if it wins the elections.
Ukraine Kurt Volker and Tymoshenko, she said, sought the support of the United States in the form of concrete actions to respond to the Russian aggression in the Kerch Strait and agree on a new peaceful settlement of the conflict, says the article
. Volker and Tymoshenko reportedly discussed the United States' view of the recent events in eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea, as well as the peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine
Some US officials still skeptical about Tymoshenko and, because of her past ties with Lazarenko, was sentenced to the United States for money laundering, notes the US edition.
Now that Poroshenko was unable to keep many of his election promises, the author revived Tymoshenko's political ambitions. [1 9659036]
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