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A look at the first signals in the supporting part of the invisible primer, however, indicates that Harris is a force to be reckoned with in 2020.
Like opinion polls, the primitive suggests a contest that remains large open. This is not really a surprise. We are still more than a year away from Iowa caucuses. Still, the primary approval will be important to keep an eye on. Candidates who receive a lot of approval from party actors (politicians, activists, etc.) tend to fend for themselves. Even at six months from Iowa, the candidate to come to the primary has endorsed 9 of the last 14 presidential primaries without a holder being elected.
Without a lot of sponsorship, it's a bit difficult to know where things are going to end. in 2020. There is no real way to conduct the kind of scientific survey we are doing for the general public. We are stuck reading tea leaves. These tea leaves suggest, however, that Democratic activists seem more inclined to vote for someone like Harris at this point.
Democratic county presidents of Iowa, for example, want a youth who has never been a presidential candidate. That was the opinion of 43 of the 76 County Presidents of Iowa, solicited by the Wall Street Journal. Harris, who is only 54 years old, has received very good reviews from returning leaders such as Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
A separate measure of the primary endorsement Political scientist Seth Masket finds the same thing. Masket interviewed activists who have always been involved in primary politics. Masket notes that the vast majority of them in Iowa and at the national level at which he spoke are not engaged, and, of course, interviews of this nature are not necessarily representative of the largest pool of activists.
Yet, more Iowa Democratic activists surveyed say they are willing to consider Harris more than any other candidate. In accordance with Wall Street Journal interviews, Masket interviewees ranked the young candidates, Senator Cory Booker, and Beto representative O & # 39; Rourke third.
Nationwide, Masket's interviews reveal the extent of Harris' potential support. A majority of activists said they planned to support it in the combined results of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Washington, DC No other candidates ( over a dozen) has so far been considered by the majority of activists. asked.
Masket is not the only one to have found a broad potential appeal for Harris in the primary. Interviews with the We The People Progressive Women's Group are similar. In a survey of women of color in politics (from elected officials to people working in political organizations), Harris was cited as the only candidate listed by the majority of respondents when they were asked to give their three first choices in 2020. O 'Rourke has second away for the support of the top three.
It is difficult to find a larger primary group than women of color. They are by far the largest demographic group most aligned by the Democrats. Women of color propelled Southeast Hillary Clinton's sweep in 2016 primary. Last year, they served as a basis for the shocking victory of Democrat Doug Jones in the Special Senate elections in Alabama.
Will the first positive signals for Harris in the main end of the rider lead to success when it comes to the primary next year? It's impossible to say. Although Harris eventually gets the support of several activists, there is no guarantee that voters will follow suit.
However, an appointment to Harris is quite logical. The Democratic Party is becoming more and more feminine and nominated in record numbers of women in 2018. As Harris is the only woman of color who ranks near the top rank for the 2020 Democratic nomination, it should not be surprising at all she ends up winning.
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