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NEW YORK – Ryan Seacrest and Anderson Cooper will be present. Snoop Dogg too
But 1 or 2 million people on Times Square in New York for the New Year? As Snoop would say, you need to drink gin juice and juice.
Public experts make fun of these huge figures – launched every year by city officials and event organizers – claiming that it is impossible to compel as many revelers as a relatively small space.
According to the science professor of the crowd, G. Keith Still, the actual throwing crowd in Times Square is probably less than 100,000 people.
"Generally, people overestimate the size of the crowd by 10 to 100 times.," Said Still, who teaches crowd science at Manchester Metropolitan University in England and trains police departments in computing techniques number of people.
Crowd estimates come from the New York City Police Department, according to the Times Square Alliance, which handles the falling ball.
In recent years, the department estimated that 2 million people had gathered in Times Square. Mayor Bill de Blasio again used a large number on Friday, saying the city was expecting "more than 2 million people in Times Square", a bow-tie area running five blocks between Broadway and 7th Avenue.
Professor at New York University Charles Seife, a mathematician and journalist who explored statistical manipulation in his book "Proofiness," said the city had an interest in promoting a larger number because that " helps to cement New York's image as a center of the universe on a certain date and time. "
He suggested that fuzzy mathematics and more blurred geography were also at play
"How do you count a participant in the Times Square ball drop?" Seife asked. "Can everyone see the ball or someone who is stuck in a Manhattan bar?"
To accommodate 1 million revelers, the city is expected to bottle more than the Yankee Stadium equivalent to sell-outs in every block of 7th Avenue between Times Square and Central Park, or about 15 blocks. to the north.
Still and his colleagues perform detailed analysis when calculating the total number of viewers. But even using simple techniques, like measuring Times Square on a map and performing some calculations, it's clear that numbers do not reach a million.
Times Square could accommodate about 51,000 people at a density of 3 people per square. Still said, about 86,000 to 5 people per square meter. It could reach 120,000 people if the crowd crammed to 7 people per square meter, but he said the density, involving people crushed side by side and side by side, is unlikely.
These numbers do not count. people watching from the windows of hotels and office buildings or from remote areas further away. They also do not take into account the space occupied by the scenes, the security apparatus and the escape routes, where people would otherwise be able to stand.
The estimate of the New York crowd has evolved over time. In 1998 again, the police department estimated that about 500,000 people were present. The mayor, Rudolph Giuliani, predicted up to 2 million euros for the millennium festival at the end of 1999.
At major events, a precise estimate of the public is essential to public security . Still, the wrong number can leave cities spending too much or too little resources on an event. But New York – despite the size of its crowd – handles the crowd well, channeling party-goers into enclave areas, so that there's no possibility of overcrowding and inspecting every single person to the search for weapons.
The police are planning 65 pens of this type this year. , extending well north of Times Square proper. To attract 1 million people in these 65 enclosures, each should accommodate about 30,800 people.
Estimating the size of crowds has long been subject to inaccurate conjectures and political pressures.
Arguments regarding the size of the crowd broke out after President Donald Trump claimed he had the biggest audience of the presidential inauguration of the story. The National Parks Service has stopped estimating the number of spectators at the National Mall events in Washington DC after a quarrel with the leader of the Nation of Islam, Louis Farrakhan, about participating in his march of the million men 1995.
The parades of victorious sports teams involve most of the parades -the-top estimates. Officials said 3.2 million people took to the streets of Philadelphia for the Super Bowl Eagles parade last year. The mayor of the city conceded later that the crowd was probably over 700,000 people. one against the other, shoulder to shoulder, you can not have so many people on St. Peter's Square, "said Still.
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