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The Turkish president does not abandon his intention to destroy the Syrian Kurds.
US President Donald Trump's statement that his own troops were withdrawn from Syria confused many political actors and forced various military groups in the war-torn country to think about new ones.
The United States has won the most victories for Turkey since this decision, as the withdrawal of US troops was loosening its hands, which would make it almost the main Syrian military force, alongside the United States. Russian army.
However, the most important is that Trump's decree will pave the way for the long-standing dream of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to destroy the Kurds who are supposed to be terrorists in northern Syria and set up the total control of the Turkish-Syrian border. The head of Turkey has already spoken of these plans in full transparency, pulling forces on the Syrian border and declaring that a new military operation can begin "at any time".
TSN ua was considered, why Turkey needs this operation, which she carried out for this purpose and that it will lead to the success of Erdogan.
Previous Experience
For the first time, Turkey formally conducted a military operation in northern Syria in August 2016 – March 2017. It was later named " The Shield of Israel". Euphrates ", whose aim was to fight the militants of" Islamic State "at the borders, as well as the separation of Kurdish territories on the west bank of the Euphrates.
This operation lasted a long time, as Turkish troops could not long occupy the city of Al-Baba, in the province of Aleppo, and go to the territories under the control of the army. # 39; Asad. Finally, in March, the staff of Turkey announced that the operation had been completed. The Syrian Kurds have decided not to interfere in a direct military clash and withdraw, leaving the Turks to fight only with radical Islamists. During this operation, Turkey breaks into Syria and cuts the Afrin region from other Kurdish territories
In less than a year, in January 2018, Turkish troops launch the operation " The Olive Branch " to capture Afrin. Two months later, the city was taken and the Kurds, according to Turkish data, reportedly killed at least 1,500 people.
Forces
In early 2019, Erdogan once again spoke of a military operation in northern Syria, tasked with charging the appropriate forces against the Syrian people. Turkish border. In fact, on the west bank of the Euphrates, there was only one controlled area – the city of Manbijk . However, there is a US military base that makes it impossible to attack this city.
After deciding to withdraw American troops from Syria, Erdogan received a complete carte blanche in the region. Conscious of its lack of defense, the Kurdish People's Self-Defense Forces (YPG) invited Syrian pro-government troops to take Manbidz under their own control, at the speed of the war. flash. Now an attack on this region may result in military clashes between the Turkish Army and the Asad army.
There is no precise information on the number of Turkish soldiers who plan to take part in the operation. Earlier, military groups of the Syrian opposition declared that they were ready to provide 15,000 troops to Turkey. For example, in previous operations, Turkey had attracted up to 7,000 soldiers and about 20,000 Syrian soldiers. In terms of technology, during the fighting, the Turks used nearly 80 tanks and more than 20 armored cars.
At the same time, the number of Kurdish military units rose to nearly 30,000 men. In addition, allied Arab groups could be involved in clashes, whose total number could reach nearly 70,000.
If an Assad army joins the open confrontation, the Turkish operation could become one of the bloodiest. the events of the war in Syria in recent years.
Who are the Kurds and what do they want?
Kurds are the people who live mainly in the territories of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. The total population is about 40 million and according to all United Nations definitions, this country should have had its own state for a long time. However, in all countries where Kurds are historically established, they are subject to various forms of ethnic discrimination.
The main problem of the Kurds is in Turkey, where they have been fighting for nearly 30 years to attract attention and be defeated with weapons in hand and terrorist attacks. According to various sources, the Kurds constitute about 25% of the total population of Turkey and occupy about a quarter of all its territories.
As a result of this aggressive struggle, the main driving force of Turkish Kurds – the Kurdistan Workers' Party – is recognized as a terrorist in Turkey. That is why Erdoğan pursues such a policy of repression against the Kurdish people not only in Turkey but also in other countries where he lives.
With regard to the Kurds of Syria, their main objective will be to obtain wide autonomy in Syria restored after the war. That is why they are trying not to engage an open confrontation with the Asad army and opposition groups, fighting the militants of the "Islamic State" because of the full protectorate the United States.
"A knife in the back"
"It's all for you.We finished", after the words of US President Donald Trump the only hurdle preventing Erdogan from pursuing the capture of Kurdish territories in Syria has been eliminated. In fact, under the slogans of the fight against terrorism, Turkey can also destroy the Kurdish factions, because they also fall under the definition of terrorism.
After such austerity, the United States announced the continued support of the Kurds in Germany and France. A number of media reported that, on the part of the Americans, it was a "knife in the back" of their Kurdish allies, with whom they fought side by side with Islamist terrorists
Erdogan himself wrote a column for The New York Times, in which he described the main points of Turkey's subsequent work on the settlement of the situation in Syria. Her name speaks for herself: "Trump is right about Syria, Turkey can do everything right" .
Meanwhile, experts warned that if Turkey wanted to capture all Kurdish territories in Syria, the operation could result in failure, not only for Erdogan, but also for the fight against terrorism. To a lesser extent, the further the Turkish army moves, the harder it will be to receive supplies and ammunition from Turkish territory, as well as to evacuate the wounded. From the beginning of the offensive on the entire east coast of Euphrates, Erdogan also cherishes well-known generals who led the preliminary operations. According to them, the Kurdish detachments are more trained than their counterparts in Afrin, but the Turks do not play the climatic and topographic conditions either.
Giran Ozcan expresses a more severe stance on Erdogan's plans for a new operation. member of the Turkish "Democratic People's Party", which constantly defends the rights of Kurdish minorities in Turkey. According to him, in documents for the Independent, while fighting the Kurds in all countries of the Middle East, Erdogan will never be able to achieve peace in the region. Turkey Erdogan is one of the biggest threats to peace in the Middle East – the sooner the United States understands, the better, "he said.
Russian experts generally suggest that the US decision to confront Turkish and Syrian troops, which will help the Kurds, and so will shake Russia, which supports Assad and Turkey, is attempting to to expose.
"] Russia faces a rather difficult option: to take control of Kurdish territories in northeastern Syria, at the risk of fighting with Turkey, or throwing them on the periphery [19459005InthesecondcaseunfortunatelyunderthelikelycontrolofTurkeythemainoilfieldswillbeundercontrolSyriaandthemostfertilelandsoftheEuphratesfloodplainaswellassomeofthemajorreservoirsofthisriverwhichcanatleastsolvealittlethealreadyacuteproblemofwatersupplyintherepublicThecitiesofManbijkandRakka(therecent"capital"oftheterrorist"IDIL")areofparamountimportanceRussiaanditsAlliesinSyriawilllosethemostimportantchancesforthesuccessfulrestorationofthestatedestroyedbythecivilwar"notesViktorKuzovkovinthepublicationofthe"MilitaryReview"
The first signs of support for this thesis have already been distributed, notably by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which presents video patrols in the Russian military streets of the city of Manbijk, confirming that the army and the Assad regime also carried out special assignments of staff of the Russian Federation.
There is another problem of equal importance in Syria – the possible revenge of terrorists on the part of "IDIL". Their remains were left in the oases along the Euphrates, and the Kurds themselves continue to struggle with them, while all the other parties have tackled a whole host of other issues. If Kurdish troops are forced to fight on two fronts, this could lead to an increase in controlled IDIL territories.
The events that began to unfold in the United States as a result of such a Trump decision indicate that the withdrawal of US troops from Syria was perceived ambiguously in the country's political establishment . In particular, he resigned from Pentagon leader James Mattheys . After the release decision, he also wrote an open letter accusing Trump of impulsiveness and claiming that the US president did not care about profile departments. This is probably the reason that nearly a month Trump fails to find a candidate at one of the most prestigious positions of the US government. We already know that several people on the proposal of Trump at the head of the Pentagon reacted negatively
When the American authorities understood the consequences of the alleged "betrayal" of the Kurds, they began to consider options to obtain guarantees security for their allies. In particular, withdrawal deadlines have been extended to agree on the fate of Kurdish military units in Syria. To do this, even an adviser to the President of the United States on national security went to Turkey John Bolton . Judging by the fact that at the end of his two-day visit, Erdogan had suddenly given up a meeting with him, it was not possible to agree on guarantees concerning the Kurds. . This information was confirmed in the White House after President Donald Trump announced on Twitter his victory over the terrorist group "Islamic State".
