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"Does anyone really think I will not build the wall? Does more than any president during his first two years of life!" Trump said Sunday evening , responding to the overwhelming media consensus that he had Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives.
In the future, he will have to adopt a radical change of approach if he wants to make money for his wall and restore a presidency severely damaged by his defeat to the Democrats at the time. first clash of Democrats. new era of divided government.
But any new strategy will expose the president to significant political risks and will require the ability to work at the levers of power in Washington, which Trump was unable to demonstrate, even when the GOP held the monopoly power of Congress.
And especially for the president, a real deal with the Democrats would require concessions that would compel him to do what he never dared to do: risk angering his ultra-political base. -loyale.
The unpleasant reality. This is the reason why Washington seems to be moving towards a second conflict – or Trump's attempt to bypass Congress using executive power to build the wall that could provoke a constitutional storm.
The President's dilemmas will arise during a three-week short-term funding truce on Friday to end a closure that left 800,000 government employees without multiple pay checks and federal infrastructure of the country in chaos.
Negotiations will take place between a group of Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate looking for a border security plan that everyone can approve.
"Personally, I think it's less than 50-50, but you have a lot of very good members of this board," he said, adding that he doubted that he was going to be a member of the board. it would dilute its demand of B $ 5.7 billion. llion in the financing of a wall.
"A Fair Deal" or a New Judgment
Trump warned Friday that he was not getting a "fair deal" on money for a wall that Democrats would vehemently oppose the February 15, the government would close again or invoke emergency powers to build it.
Trump's refusal, so far, to moderate his position does not take into account the damage to his political position in a closure that now looks like a miscalculation error.
The stalemate worsened the moderate voters and altered the number of voters, as well as the united and emboldened Democrats. The rise of Trump threatened him in his base army for whom his wall is a rallying cause almost mystical.
A second stop could turn into an even bigger disaster for Trump.
In the first place, Capitol Hill's Republicans, who were previously frustrated with his strategy over the past month, he might think twice before following the president in another political stalemate.
"I do not know how a member of the administration or Congress might think that a closure is a commendable business." Senator Susan Collins, R-Maine, said Sunday on CBS's "Face the Nation. "
And Pelosi, sinking into victory, seems even less willing to offer Trump the kind of compromise that could allow Congress he said that he had received money for the wall and for the Democrats to claim that they had financed the security of the borders.
"Have not I been cleared on a wall?" the President asked Friday.
Trump in a political traffic jam
Signs showing that the parties are as entrenched as ever have explained that they were hoping more and more that the president would declare a national emergency or initiate an action of the 39, executive Reprogramming money to finance the wall qua the time will be up
But what would be a certain legal battle and a limit to the amount of funds that the president could use, means that such a strategy could save the political face and unite its base, but should not lead to the rapid construction of a wall likely to strengthen its race for the reelection of 2020.
This political stalemate is the reason why the president is now at a crossroads that could fundamentally change the character of his presidency and change the The foundation of a crusade-based political crusade: The Rhetoric of Immigration
The last few weeks have clearly shown that the Democrats who lead the House of Representatives would not give Trump any something that looks like his campaign vision of a border wall without getting anything serious in return.
It's likely that Trump will have to offer something of Scale in terms of permanent protection for undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as a child and even a path to citizenship for a group called Dreamers.
Trump Provides Temporary Shield to DACA Recipients and Other Migrants Covered by Temporary Protection Status (GST) for Three Years in an effort to break the stalemate in the government's closure negotiations of the government.
But Democrats refused, arguing that temporary protections against deportation in exchange for a permanent wall were hardly a good deal.
Even this limited offer has drawn the fury of some of Trump's traditional cheerleaders to the right. Putting permanent status on the table of undocumented migrants could provoke a firestorm among supporters who see such an approach as an "amnesty".
The changing balance of power in Washington put Trump in a deeply ironic position that, to get the wall, he may have to do something he has never done before: risking his connection with its base.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio – while stressing the need to guarantee border security first – thinks that the White House could be ready to go much further Trump
"I think he's willing to go even further and do something reasonable with people who have been here illegally for a long time, but who are not criminals," he said. Rubio told Jake Tapper in "The State of Play". Union. "
Rubio, more than most lawmakers, understands the perilous journey that Trump would face – his presidential prospects having been eviscerated by his former willingness to compromise on the subject. [19659002] Trump has repeatedly hesitated to exchange DACA protection for money to build his wall, in an application He is not worried about the reaction from his base, even when Democrats were willing to spend $ 25 billion for border security that he could have used to finance the wall.
It has long been mysterious that Trump, who has close ties With his political party, a different base from any other recent president did not want to test the limits of this loyalty.After all, although media personalities such as Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and Ma Levin have a huge audience, no one has ever electrified the conservative populist and nationalist movement like Trump.
And if a Republican president has the political credibility to lead the base to a compromise on immigration, it would be Trump.
But the Speaker rarely tried to touch voters beyond his own coalition – apparently believing he could repeat his narrow path to the 270 electoral votes that once again challenged all 2020 experts.
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