Putin dares not cross the land corridor that leads to Crimea – Stratfor – news ato

Terrestrial corridor scenario for Crimea or Transnistria is extremely unlikely at this time / photo facebook.com/pressjfo.news

The scenario of the terrestrial corridor leading to Crimea or Transnistria

Eugene Chauzovsky, senior Eurasian analyst of the American society of analysis and intelligence Stratfor, known for its economic activities, said in an interview with the Ukrainian service of Radio Liberty. and the geopolitical predictions of events in the world listened to in high office in the United States and Europe.

It should be noted that several years ago, Stratfor, analyzing the options for the development of events in Ukraine, reported the number of soldiers and the Kremlin will need an offensive operation, as well as from a map of possible military operations.

"The scenario of a land corridor leading to Crimea or Transnistria is extremely unlikely at this stage, and I think that if Russia took such a serious military step, it would probably have happened at the very beginning. Since the situation has stabilized over the past two years, I think it makes it even more unlikely that Russia is taking such measures. "At the same time, I notice that I do not think so. that such a development should be completely excluded.

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] When we prepared this report on possible military scenarios in Ukraine (four years ago), we estimated that Russia would need 20 to 30,000 troops to create a "land bridge" Russian in C and about twice as many – from 40 to 60 thousand people to reach Transnistria. I think these numbers are always correct. But everything depends on the actions that Russia will undertake. And yet – external circumstances. First, to what extent the United States and NATO countries will support Ukraine in its military plan. It will depend on the number of troops and the type of troops that Russia can use in this scenario. Although, I repeat, in general, it is unlikely that Russia will create a "land bridge". But if that happens, the numbers will be approximately the same as the ones we have expressed, "said Chausovsky

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Regarding the techniques that the Kremlin can use in this scenario , all depends on the type of operation that Russia will perform.

"In any case, it is a large scale war scenario. So we are talking about everything from land forces to tanks, to air defense and aviation units. It would be a large scale – all military operations, perhaps even with the use of a naval element … And even now when there is a tension in the sea of ​​Azov, I think we will see many different techniques that Russian troops will use, "said Chausovsky.

The Javelin, supplied by the United States to Ukraine, is an important replenishment of the arsenal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces :

"But I would not say that they are able to become a turning point in the case of a major military conflict with Russia. Without a doubt, the Ukrainian army has improved its capabilities and technology. Not only at the expense of Javelin, but also as a result of the exercises, as a result of the reforms undertaken over the past four years. But at the same time, I must say that Russia has also carried out both modernization and military reforms. So, of course, Ukraine has improved its capabilities from a military point of view. And Russia would probably need more troops and more military equipment … But I do not think Javelin can change anything in the world in this conflict, which can always be as we had predicted 4 years "

With regard to the forces needed in this situation in Ukraine and the ability of the state to repel such an offensive, Stratfor stresses that it would be the use of all forces available on the Ukrainian side.

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"Of course, it all depends on the way which Russia would have carried out the attack, but this will require in substance an almost complete participation of all the armed forces of the country and probably the support of the United States or NATO (here, I do not want to not in the sense of a direct military conflict – rather a formati military and material and technical support). But this support, after nearly five years of conflict, is all the more visible – we have already seen that the United States and some NATO countries are helping Ukraine, especially strengthening the country's security. aid to the sea of ​​Azov. Or at least help Kiev to create its own military units. And I think that would certainly be strengthened in the case of a total or partial invasion of Russia – or an attempt to break these "land bridges".

Rejecting such a powerful attack, from a military point of view, would be a problem. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian armed forces will not be up to the Russians (in terms of the number of soldiers and available military equipment, ed), all will also depend on the support that Ukraine can receive from the West and from Ukraine, but I compare conventional weapons.

At the same time, pay attention to the fact that Russia has always acted (indirectly by military means) only in places such as Crimea or eastern Ukraine, because it enjoys the maximum political support (within country – and military operations), food solutions. But if it goes beyond these territories, for example, as far as the "earthly corridor" is concerned, everything depends on how far away it will go, everything will become less viable and less favorable to the Russian political climate. So, if we see a war of exhaustion with Ukraine or temporary military action, Russia will face enormous internal problems, "said the expert.

the Stratfor analyst, there are a number of threats that are at the origin of Russia:

"One of them is related to the Black Sea, because we have already seen an increase in tension and interventions in the sea of ​​Azov. But Russia has a lot of what we call the means of a hybrid war that it can use to harm Ukraine. Political manipulations with energy and economic constraints, propaganda in support of demonstrations in Ukraine. So there are a lot of threats, and the army is only one of the aspects of the Russian tool kit. "

Stratfor analysts are hard to name a solution that would really work in the near future to resolve the dispute over Donbass.

" Ukraine is a place of conflict of interest. Russia is interested in maintaining your state in its sphere of influence. On the other hand, the West is trying to bring Ukraine to its side or at least to support Ukraine in the path of its western integration. And we see a collision of these two interests in the form of a conflict in the east of Ukraine. Thus, the only solution I perceive may require significant geopolitical changes: either a significant weakening of Russia's position when it accepts the Western integration of Ukraine, which, in my view, is unlikely; or any significant strengthening of Russia or weakening of the West to such an extent that Russia will in principle be able to bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence, which, in my view, is also unlikely. Thus, the most likely outcome (at least in the near future) is the scenario of the "frozen conflict", which we have seen in different places of the former Soviet Union: Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh or Abkhazia, South Ossetia … What are still "suspended state" ", Probably in the same state will be the East of Ukraine – at least for the next few years", – convinced Chausovsky.