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There are two main problems: the clock (and an unofficial weekend deadline for an agreement) and the policy for which the main ideological and political differences have not yet been resolved.
The reality is that the most difficult problems – and there are many – have not yet been solved, so approach optimism with an appropriate perspective. But the proposals were exchanged on both sides, according to sources, and beyond the staff. It is clear that legitimate efforts are underway to find a way to reach an agreement – and negotiators from both sides said on Tuesday that they had moved away from their original positions on financing the fence at the border.
Nobody, at least at this point, can answer the key question: are they going to get there? But things are in a better place than they have been in a long time, according to multiple sources involved in the process.
Disclaimer
Optimism preceded President Donald Trump's State of the Union address and his comments on immigration, which were quite unwelcome by the Democrats in the room. It does not make any sense for the moment, on the part of the collaborators involved in the negotiations, that it will have a wider impact on the conference committee, but expect Democrats to express their discontent on Wednesday.
What to Read
Points to Watch
Closed meeting of the Democratic Caucus of the House of Representatives, 9 am (ET).
10 am
Press Conference of the Democratic Chamber Caucus, 10:15 am
Press Conference on the Republican Leadership of the House, at 11 am
A Positive Sign, So Small be it
Conference committee members are expected to attend a closed door briefing session by Border Career Security Officers at some point on Wednesday. The nature of the in camera meeting – and the fact that it was originally proposed as a briefing by career managers rather than political appointees – was considered by some as a positive signal from Republicans.
A good check of reality
a limited time in time Remain to reach an agreement – lawmakers say that on Thursday or Friday morning, most people of Capitol Hill work at the same time, which, in the best of scenarios, could eventually take a day or two and give the two chambers time to make a final agreement.
But it should be remembered that the fracture is not just about the Trump border wall funding request. There are also sharp disagreements about the types and levels of border staff growth and things like the number of detention beds available for undocumented immigrants held at the border. There are also deep divisions on these issues – divisions considered no less as a factor of division within the respective parties.
A second good check of reality
The calendar is tight, no question. But in Congress – even in the Senate – things can go very fast when an agreement is found. Or, like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, told reporters on Tuesday: "When you reach an agreement, things happen quickly here, and we hope they will be able to do that. the president indicates that he is ready to sign the bill. "
The Trump Card
Republican lawmakers and staff recognize a person as a reality that seemed unthinkable just a few weeks ago: they advance without knowing what Trump would support or sign. In the words of McConnell, who has stood firm for weeks saying that nothing could advance in the Senate without the approval of the President: "I think we do not yet know what he thinks of this, but I think that the participants should come to an agreement and then we hope that the President will find it worth signing. "
While the White House is kept informed of ongoing discussions, the Chief of Staff by Acting Mick Mulvaney, has been interviewed by many speakers. , sources say – and Vice President Mike Pence and the Legislative Affairs team receive regular updates, the administration has not offered any figures nor clean language, tell me two sources aware of the interviews.
This is to some extent what lawmakers on both sides have asked: that the President stay out of the situation and let the negotiators work their will. But that goes both ways – it creates the very real possibility that negotiators will come to an agreement that the president rejects.
What Trump said in the SOTU
Trump, in his State of the Union address, quotes his proposal addressed to Congress, which provided $ 5.7 billion in border funding, describing the wall as "a smart, strategic and transparent steel barrier – not just a concrete wall – it will be deployed in areas identified by agents as the most urgent need. "
It should be noted that this proposal did not result in the Senate 50-47. Sixty votes were needed to move the proposal forward. Beyond politics, immigration strongly reflected the position – and the tone – of the president at the southern border for years. Anyone looking for a big gesture (or even the smallest branch of an olive branch) on the issue, well, it was not the talk that was made about it. immigration.
What the Democrats Did not Appreciate
President Nancy Pelosi's Response to the Trump Border Security Issue and the Wall of the State of the Union:
"Instead of scare and create a border crisis, President Trump should pledge to sign the Bipartite Conference Committee Bill to keep government open and provide solutions strong and intelligent in border security. "
Exploitering the wording
Aides on Capitol Hill made it clear that they saw no part of the president's remarks as a step toward compromise, but many stressed that strategic deployment, on the recommendation of border officials, could be envisaged. associate with the Democrat position that any security measure must be evidence-based and recommended by professionals working at the border.
About a National Emergency
The Republican Senate's concern over Trump's declaration of a national emergency as a means of funding the Wall of the Border has become a recurring theme, but the magnitude of the bottling that such a decision would put the party perhaps less – and highlights why Republicans are so suspicious about it.
McConnell made headlines for refusing to declare how he would vote to block such a statement, saying: "I will prevent any judgment on this until we see what it is. made".
But McConnell's general opposition to this idea is no secret, he has said publicly. The real problem now – the one that has been communicated to the White House and directly to the President – is the precarious position in which any statement could place its conference in the weeks that followed.
Basic Republicans have expressed concern about this approach for ideological, constitutional and precedent-setting reasons. These Republicans, if faced with a resolution of disapproval, would be forced to vote for something they seem to oppose and stay with the president on his central political issue or vote against him.
"We have never had this procedure before, because national emergencies launched in the past are not controversial, I'm pretty sure that would be the case," said McConnell with a chuckle. "It is a fairly quick process, with a simple majority vote in the Senate, so everything that I have discussed with the administration, it is just the process. "
The process, if necessary
McConnell argues a point that should be kept. in mind: this is not a problem that the Senate has faced before, so there is not necessarily a definitive roadmap for what will happen, but the hierarchical process is described in the law (see: US Code 50, § 1622). .
In summary, if the President pulls the trigger of a national emergency declaration to fund the border wall, Democrats in the House could quickly pass a disapproval resolution to block the statement. Since Democrats hold the majority, its adoption is virtually assured.
It would be then sent back to the Senate, where there is simply no viable way to block the resolution to come to the ground. By law, the Senate would have 15 days to consider the resolution in committee and then another three days before it reaches the rostrum (although it may be returned earlier to the rostrum). The resolution would be privileged and subject to a simple majority threshold.
This is a vote – and a broader question – Republicans have made it clear that they would like to avoid. Trump, meanwhile, made it very clear that the option remained on the table if no agreement was reached on legislation to finance its border wall.
This, of course, does not even take into account the fact that Democrats have made it clear that they would make any declaration of national emergency in court as soon as it was made.
As one senior GOP advisor explained: "Very soon, something must give in. Hopefully this is a kind of conference committee agreement."
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