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Anna Romanash
Although the escalation of the conflict is unfavorable to Russia, the Kremlin's actions are unpredictable and entirely dependent on Putin's desires, but the article of the Atlantic of the Council . The autocephalous city of Kiev provoked conflicts on the holy mountain of Athos, popular among orthodox pilgrims and businessmen, writes in the newspaper . The The Guardian . And in Deutsche Welle discuss the political component of the tomosus for Ukraine and the splitting of Orthodox churches through the role of the Russian Orthodox Church.
Russia could conquer the essentials of Ukraine a few years ago, but such a scenario is no longer possible, convinced Professor Alexander Motyl in a article of the American think tank Atlantic Council . A large-scale attack against Ukraine will not achieve the desired result: Russia will not be able to win a quick victory, aggression will be a stiff response from the United States. West, military support to Ukraine, further economic decline and isolation of the global banking system.
Despite the possible consequences, Vladimir Putin will act as it is advantageous at a specific moment, Motil is certain, so it is difficult to predict new actions of the Kremlin. "As a result, we can not rule out the possibility of a massive invasion of Ukraine by Russia – both by an alarming number of Russian troops and tanks along the Ukrainian border, and by the unpredictability and will of Putin to make mistakes, "said the expert. "The invasion has no meaning for Russia and that is why it is entirely possible for Putin."
Fewer provocations and threats are also possible. However, both options serve the same purpose: to divert the Russian from internal problems. The economic and political challenges are already exacerbating even the biggest enthusiasts who support Putin, the annexation of Crimea and the war in the East. In Motil's view, Putin's Russia is unstable because its power is based on situational allies – the narrow circle of closest associates, like-minded people, oligarchs and organized crime. Already, this circle is narrowing and urgent problems arise.
"A stagnant economy that does not innovate … can not support an active foreign policy of intervention, so Russia, like the USSR, is a fragile, weak and overburdened state that has not need only a shock.A large-scale war with Ukraine can become such a shock, "says the author.
With such an unpredictable neighbor, Ukraine must understand – even if Putin is not profitable to attack or continue the conflict in the East, it does not mean that hostility ceases. "Ukraine must remain armed … and never to trust Putin, but to be always ready to reach feasible agreements, "concluded the expert." He must also do what has been done successfully over the past four years: pursue reforms, develop economically and remain democratic. "Western democracies, on the contrary, must undoubtedly hold Ukraine as the only thing between them, the irrationality of Putin and the collapse of Russia. "
At the same time, an independent Ukrainian church provoked conflict on Mount Athos, writes a columnist of the British newspaper Guardian Orthodox monks who should stand out from politics and avoid relations with the world The presence of Russian businessmen and funding in the region and in Greece affect the public opinion – and many Orthodox monks openly support the Orthodox Church. Russian, Patriarchs Kirill and Putin
"It is easy to see that not all monks live in isolation from the outside world. Father Oleksandr from Lugansk wears an orange-black "Saint George's ribbon", a symbol of Russian-backed separatists, "the journalist writes.He describes the story of a monk who left Athos when the war in the East began to help the separatists kill a Ukrainian military plane
However, most monks support the patriarch of Constantinople and are already accustomed to Russian influences on the peninsula – due to the constant presence of 39; Russian money in this peninsula in the time of the king The controversy between monks through the Ukrainian autocephalus is not ideological but motivated by financial considerations.The journalist quotes one of the monks : "There are simply monks who like Russian money," he explains to the support that Russia finds among some monks.
The influence of Russia is noticeable not only on Athos but on Greece in its in The Russians are buying businesses or creating economic and political networks on the ground to strengthen their role in the country. The observer quotes Jeffrey Payet US Ambassador to Greece (formerly Ukraine), which echoes Russian tactics in both countries: "[Росіяни] does not have the same influence in Greece as in Ukraine, but the methods are the same, "he says.
Currently, Russian businessmen are confused. Patriarch Kirill has forbidden the Russians to take Holy Communion in Athos. He also called all the priests who bless the patriarch of Constantinople, schismatics. However, the presence of Russian orthodoxy remains important – in 2016, Putin even visited the sanctuary and one of the monasteries where most monks are Russian.
Deutsche Welle Deutshce Welle explains how the Russian government uses the ROC for its own account. goals. The reporter interviewed a professor and an expert on Orthodoxy Rudolf Prokši on the importance of Ukrainian law for all Orthodox churches and on the new division of Eastern Christianity.
"The conflict is highly politicized," says the expert. – The Ukrainian Christian Church, very orthodox and perhaps independent, was officially attached to the ROC. "The professor adds – earlier, Petro Poroshenko turned several times to Constantinople to provide Ukraine with autocephaly, but to no avail.Everything changed after the deterioration of relations between Constantinople and the Patriarchs of Moscow.The absence of the Russian Orthodox Church at the Orthodox Orthodox Cathedral of Crete in 2016 and the annexation of Crimea have only made the situation worse. [19659013] According to Professor, the Kremlin's level of influence over the Republic of Korea is impressive. "For many Russians, Putin is" a defender of Russian traditions and interests, "Prokši said. – For many, he has also become a "defender of faith". The expert explains – thus, the Russian president is distancing himself from the West.
Procchi adds that the additional division of orthodoxy is possible thanks to the position of the Russian Orthodox Church and that it will have a significant impact on Eastern Christianity. "The Russians have already left everything under the leadership of the Ecumenical Patriarchate," he concludes. – If the Moscow Patriarchate no longer participates in important universal negotiations, it will mean that the Catholic Church will not communicate with the Orthodox Church, but with the individual national Orthodox Churches. "
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