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The Senate will take two votes Thursday to reopen the federal government and end the longest stop in its history. Both votes should fail. The closure will continue.
The appearance of failed ballots has become one of the business cards of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the Senate in recent years. They have proven to be a powerful tool for defusing difficult conflicts and breaking a deadlock. Previously, a failed Senate bill was a sign of weak leadership, but McConnell used it to his tactical advantage in a highly polarized Washington.
McConnell has already used this method in high pressure situations. Some Republican lobbyists in the city have called the strategy "show their bodies": holding votes that you know will fail will break the deadlock on a given issue.
As Vox pointed out during the controversial debate over health care:
Observers in Washington believe that the Senate is preparing to fail at a vote that would bring a seven-year quest for health care. repeal and replacement of Obamacare to a spectacular but definitive end. 19659006] This is the strategy of "show them a body".
"I think the destination is already defined. But what is the path to follow? "Me says a Republican lobbyist in the health field, who requested anonymity to speak frankly" They must be able to show a body to the electorate, to say that they have failed …
It is now time for McConnell to call this piece. Four weeks after the start of the closure, Republican members of the Senate did not want to do anything without the $ 5 billion Trump allocated to the border, and the Democratic leaders are making no progress in their discussions with the US. President. The Democrats defeated McConnell for not allowing a vote to reopen the government. Now they will have one – even if it will not have the desired effect.
Failed votes are not really productive laws, but they remain useful for Senate leaders, as they give the impression that work is being done and force a reset once a path is over. Legislature is blocked.
What votes is the Senate about to take?
McConnell and the leader of the Senate minority, Chuck Schumer, negotiated an agreement this week to vote on two proposals Thursday:
- President Trump's proposal, announced Saturday, would fund the government while providing billions of dollars dollars for border security and temporary protections DACA recipients.
- A temporary government funding bill to fund the government at existing levels – without any conditions of immigration – is expected to reopen the government until February 8. A corresponding version of this bill has already been adopted by the Democratic Chamber.
Both bills would require 60 votes to move forward. But the Republicans who will join the Democrats will probably not be numerous enough to adopt a clean bill, and few Democrats are willing to support the Trump Wall.
What is the purpose? Senators will have the public opportunity to dispel their frustrations by voting for the opening of the government – and McConnell will have shown the Democratic leaders and President Trump that none of these courses currently have the necessary support in the Senate.
Politico Playbook explained the purpose of the duels failed as follows: "This is a pressure relief valve." It is actually not intended to end the shutdown.
McConnell has already "shown a body" to
We have seen the same drama twice before, once on Obamacare repeal in 2017 and once during the previous government shutdown on DACA and the wall last January .
During this first instance, the debate on the repeal of Obamacare was already clearly in trouble. However, McConnell continued to move toward a vote, although he did not have a clear path to get 50 votes (this bill operated under special rules that required only a simple majority) for a given plan. He seemed ready to hold a vote, even if all that would show would show that none of the existing repeal bills could be passed.
The final vote went almost as planned, although McConnell moved closer to the health care bill. Senate that most people were waiting for. For a few days, the Senate failed when voting on a repeal and replacement plan, a clean repeal bill and a "scanty" repeal bill. The last failed to pass – McConnell cleverly proved that none of the other bills had the necessary support, leaving the "lean" bill as the only viable alternative – but John McCain stopped it with his famous boost.
This strategy culminated in this spectacular failure in the Senate, but it also added a final note to the health care debate of several months. McConnell and the rest of the Senate moved on to tax reform in the following months.
The same story repeats itself a few months later. Democratic senators shut down the government in January 2018 to try to force Trump to negotiate a permanent solution for DACA beneficiaries, whose legal status was threatened by the administration. The president proved to be an unreliable negotiator, but the Democrats still wanted some sort of concession to agree to reopen the government.
What they ended up getting, is another moment to show them their body. McConnell has agreed not to introduce specific immigration legislation, but rather to hold an "open and fair" debate on immigration until the Democrats have overthrown the government. Thus, in early February, four immigration bills were put to a vote.
Once again, the Senate is preparing to vote in a doomed manner on a big issue
. The scheme had served McConnell's goals. The government reopened in January. The president was at the mercy of an embarrassing situation if his own plan had failed while a more pro-migrant version was adopted. Both sides realized that they did not have enough support for their positions to enable them to act productively in immigration matters. They decided to move on – until the last immigration stalemate led to a new closure, which has still not been resolved.
We will now do the same thing on Thursday. Senators will be able to vote, but if both plans fail as planned, President Trump will no longer be forced to veto the government's closed status. In other words, the votes will not solve the problem, but they could defuse the tension for a few days and give the Republicans a chance to regroup.
It may sound strange, but nowadays that is how the Senate works.
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