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The fresh air returned to New Jersey, so it is back in the routine . Average seasonal maximum temperatures are currently in the first 40 years – it can be more than 10 days before temperatures reach levels close to "normal".
At the time of writing these lines early Tuesday morning temperatures range from 30 degrees north of Jersey to the lowest 40 degrees of the south coast. A strong breeze continues to blow above 20 mph, adding a noticeable bite to the cold air.
Aside from the cold, our weather will remain calm Tuesday . We will see good sun above the head with passing clouds (I call it "mostly to partly sunny"). The winds will attenuate to around Tuesday in the middle of the afternoon . Meanwhile, the thermometers increase only a few degrees from the lowest 40 degrees. (This may or may not be the maximum temperature for the calendar day – we were in the 40's, just after midnight as well.)
With the perfect combination of clear skies, calm winds, air dry and fresh air mass, Tuesday night will be cold and crisp. One expects a severe frost on the statewide because the night minimum temperatures will fall in mid-twenties. Wednesday morning .
The heavens generally become cloudy on Wednesday with slightly cooler temperatures, ranging up to about 40 degrees. This is practically below normal even in the middle of winter.
In addition, a low-pressure system on the high seas could "spit" a few flurries towards Jersey Shore between Tuesday afternoon and . ] Tuesday night (say 3 pm to 10 pm) It sounds like a simple explosion of snowflakes, with no accumulation or movement problem. There is even less chance for snow showers to form in northwestern New Jersey, while lake showers are breaking out of the Great Lakes and Finger Lakes.
Thursday will be a little sunnier than Wednesday, and I am encouraged by a keen southwesterly wind. This will push the high temperatures in 40 to 40 years. This is not much, but it could be the most "hot" day of the week.
A cold frontal passage on Thursday is currently modeled to be dry for New Jersey. But that will lead to another unusually cold day for Friday with high temperatures limited to about 40 degrees. At least we will have a beautiful sun to accompany the cold.
As I briefly described in the Monday weather blog post the weekend's forecasts get complicated. The guiding models show a major storm system passing south of New Jersey, centered around South Carolina at the beginning of Sunday . The GFS model describes a complete failure for New Jersey – no snow, no rain, just very cold air (high temperatures only in the 30s). The European model is a little more precarious, pushing snow / rain and possibly strong winds near New Jersey between late Sunday and Monday .
For now, this storm system is still outside my 5 day forecast, so I do not pay attention to it. As you may recall in recent winter seasons, predicting a potential winter storm is a useless journey "beyond science". While my guts are currently leaning towards a "miss" or "miss-miss" solution, the worst scenario is rather snowy. Once again, bad weather will only arrive Sunday afternoon at the earliest, so we have ample time to understand everything. It's definitely worth watching the week go by.
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on on Facebook or on on Twitter for the latest weather forecasts and real-time weather updates.
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