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to Alex Seitz-Wald
WASHINGTON – January will mark the beginning of a cavalcade of Democratic presidential candidates who are preparing to formally launch their campaigns early next year, according to many advisers and assistants working for potential candidates.
The presidential candidacy has become a two-year-old enterprise and, even if everyone says it hates it, candidates find themselves systematically dragged into the presidential-industrial complex and rush. in Iowa and New Hampshire as quickly as possible, lest they be left behind.
The resulting calculation turns out to be fairly simple and boils down to one thing: money.
White House research has never been so expensive, and some seasoned Democrats estimate that a candidate will have to collect $ 10 to $ 15 million in the first quarter of 2019 and at least $ 50 million. dollars throughout the year. , to be seriously competitive once voters start voting early in 2020.
Trump's re-election campaign and affiliated GOP groups have already raised more than $ 100 million, while Republican National has collected tens of millions more.
Many potential Democratic candidates have already turned to January or early February on their calendar as an ideal launch window – early enough to attempt to collect an impressive amount of money in the first quarter of the year, without participate in the November mid-term elections.
an announcement made Jan. 12, "Julian Castro, former Obama housing secretary, who publicly explores a presidential campaign, said Sunday on the" Meet the Press "channel of NBC
"I have to decide, and I have to do it before January," former Vice President Joe Biden told CNN earlier this year.
"Anything I could do politically is probably not something I'm going to do – any news about before January," said Mayor Pete Buttieig of South Bend this month, in the news. Indiana, after announcing that he would not stand for re-election, could potentially run for president.
On his side, the Democrat Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Cory Booker of New Jersey, and Kamala Harris of California are quietly preparing for the launch of their potential campaign in early 2019. Relatives of these people have said so.
It's about the same time as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. began their famous primary fight in 2008 in late January and early February 2007.
In January, what is so special? for the taking. Whatever benefits other calendars may offer, the financial calendar seems to outperform them.
It is likely that the month of January will be cluttered because it starts at the beginning of a financial quarter, giving candidates maximum time to raise money before announcing their first fundraising at the end of the quarter in March. Extra days mean more fundraisers for swank campaigns, calls to numbers, and more emails to local contributors who pay a few dollars at a time.
The first reports of campaign campaigns for the presidential campaigns at the Federal Electoral Commission are examined in the same way The newsletters of the media, rivals and leaders of leading parties, trade union leaders and elected officials, who must decide who to support.
Lack of early fundraising means can spell the death knell of a candidate, both major donors and donors. little look to bet on a winning candidate and to get rid of the alleged losers.
Money is not all in politics, but it is a lot. And a strong first-quarter fundraiser is one of the surest ways to demonstrate its viability and strength, not only in primary elections, but also in general elections against Trump.
Many candidates run for presidential elections when they are unlikely to win. but none do so once they are short of money. "We simply did not have the resources to compete," said Rick Santorum of his decision to leave the 2012 Republican race.
Unexpected fundraising helped the candidates outsiders like Obama in 2008 and Bernie Sanders in 2016 to take seriously.
For Democrats in 2020, the financial demands will be even higher and the need to raise funds even more urgent, as large, expensive states like California and Texas have moved their primaries in the aftermath of the caucuses. Iowa and the primaries of New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. This makes California and Texas more important, by encouraging candidates to invest more heavily and earlier than in previous years.
The National Democratic Committee has also made progress in its national congress and will begin debating in June. 2019.
"This is going to be very condensed," said Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who is considering a bid for 2020, about the main process at an event hosted by Bloomberg this month . "I think the dynamics will be very different this time around."
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