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Weekly Issue: A survey of Quinnipiac University reveals that 43% of voters are in favor of building a wall along the Mexican border. A majority, 54%, are opposed to such a wall.
The Quinnipiac survey is rather an exception in favor of the pro-wall position. A CNN poll earlier this month found that only 38% of Americans favor a wall, with 57% opposed. In any case, the average result is that the Americans clearly do not want a wall.
What is the problem: President Donald Trump and some congressional Republicans wanted a partial closure of the government because Congress had not yet passed a law of funding Republicans believe their money is enough for a border wall with Mexico.
Trump and these Republicans seem to redouble their conviction by thinking that politics is a basic business. Trump really pushed for a partial stop only after being hammered by the conservative media. This denigration came after reports that he did not press for funding.
In this case, the conservative media well represent the Republican electorate. The Quinnipiac poll, for example, showed that 86% of Republicans wanted the wall of the border. Indeed, Trump won the Republican primary in 2016 largely because of his tough immigration position.
The problem is that national elections are not just about the base. Yes, the base is important, but it is also essential to win voters in the center of the electorate. Trump almost certainly needs to garner support from more voters when he wants to win in 2020. His overall approval rate remains in the 40s.
The wall is exactly the type of a question that hurts Trump's chances of becoming popular with the center. Last year, I looked at a lot of potentially controversial positions. The wall was the most polarizing. According to Quinnipiac, he is opposed to a majority of independents and 90% of Democrats.
Do not believe me that the wall is not a political winner for the Republicans? The mid-term elections were just a test of whether Trump could use the rigorous immigration speech to rally voters to his side. Immigration may have saved the Republicans a red Senate seat for Republicans, but in the House (where all voters were able to vote), it was a disaster.
According to a report by David Winston, a Republican investigator, the focus on immigration rather than on the economy has resulted in the Democrats making late decisions with dots double-digit in 2018. Winston's conclusions align with this own poll by David Drucker of the Washington Examiner.
Trump may wish to believe that the mid-term result in no way reflected his policy. Remember however that the 2018 budget has been the most presidency-centered in modern history. A higher percentage of those who endorsed the president's performance voted for the president's party than ever before in the mid-term. A higher percentage of those who disapproved of Trump's work voted for the opposition party like never before at the mid-term. 206. This calculation, carried out by Catalist, a data processing company working with Democrats and others, takes into account in a significant way the way in which the seats on which the vote would have been void or Republican would have voted. There was one. Democrats have "won" the majority of votes in the House in almost every elastic state that Trump won in 2016, including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
I would not expect the closure to unfold differently with respect to immigration. In the Quinnipiac poll, only 34% of voters favor closure because of disagreements over wall funding. When asked who would be blamed for a closure, 51% said the congressional Republicans and the president, compared with 37%, congressional Democrats. A survey conducted this week by the University of Suffolk yielded similar results.
The closure could please the base. This sounds like a political loser overall, though. Perhaps more worrying for the Republicans, it does not appear that Trump has learned anything about Republicans losing mid-term.
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