Donald Trump launches a new wave of immigration before the state of the Union



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"As caravans cross Mexico and head to our country, Republicans must be ready to do whatever is necessary to strengthen border security," Trump wrote in a tweet Sunday night.

"Governments do not do anything Trafficking in people, drugs and criminals of all sizes – KEEP IT!"

Twitter's explosion has shattered the White House's strategy that Trump is committed to healing old wounds, crossing borders and presenting his annual address to the public. a vast audience on television to project optimism.

But Trump's attempts to distract are often instructive as they revive the scorched-earth style that inflamed his followers in 2016 and can explain why he has rarely, if ever, attracted the majority. political support.

This is one of the reasons why it will be important to monitor Trump's behavior before and after his State of the Union address – rather than the tone of his remarks

Tuesday's Clear Political Play for a commander-in-chief who is perpetually underwater would be obvious to any other president than Trump.

With his approval rating faltering after a humiliating defeat brought on by the closure of the government and the Russian scandal close to the White House, a conventional president would insist on unity and seek to broaden his support.

At a time of national political divergence, he might seek to shift to politics. the Democrats sit on the left at the start of their primary campaign in 2020 and position themselves to widen the narrow path of the 270 voters with whom he sailed in 2016.

Such a president would be sure to spend the day. keynote speech on a thriving economy and focus on the brightest job creation figures that are the best argument for re-election. In order to avoid tarnishing his big moment with partisan blows, he could avoid his radical views on the most controversial issues. In the case of Trump, this could mean a weakened rhetoric on immigration – since most polls show that he has support from less than half of the country on the issue.

But this is not how Trump succeeds.

The president who has built a political career on mobilizing a loyal and angry base and deliberately adjusting the country's social and cultural divisions will probably not signal the fundamental change of direction Tuesday night that might suggest his perilous political situation.

While Trump will rise in the House of Representatives and call on the nation to unite and bury his differences and is likely to take effective advantage of the presidential pact, the real test will come shortly after Tuesday's speech.

The story suggests that, while inspiring that his appeal calls for American greatness and a common purpose, he will return to igniting Twitter by provoking personal attacks and arousing indignation fairly quickly.

In 2017, in a joint speech to Congress and in 2018 after Premier State of the Union, Trump was commended by the experts for his presidential behavior, invoking poetic calls to unity and in his Addressing the Democrats on certain issues.

Still, a few days later, Trump was not in prime time. [19659014] A few days after his speech in 2017, he accused former President Barack Obama of having listened to him in Trump Tower during the elections, a charge that lacked evidence but provoked an uproar in Washington.

So, two times bitten principle, three times shy, it might be better to wait a few weeks to understand the true impact of Trump's speech this year.

Trump Will Seek To Inspire

Still, Trump is nothing but unpredictable.

A former administration official tried to explain Friday to reporters how such a tone would not be inconsistent with the president's normal fighting rhetoric.

"Well, the state of the Union is no longer like the other times of the year.And we try, on this occasion, when you have 60 – 60- 70 minutes unfiltered to the American public, you have a chance to explain your entire program, "said the manager.

"And you must strike the tone and optimism that you feel appropriate to this place."

Keeping this in mind, Trump will say, according to an excerpt: "Together we can break decades From a political stalemate, we can overcome old divisions, heal old wounds, build new coalitions, forge new solutions and unleash the extraordinary promises of America's future. "

The talk will address issues of concern to all Americans, such as the cost of prescription drugs, infrastructure, and national security – a section likely to mention the growing role of the United States in the crisis Venezuela.

Trump has already announced a possible announcement at a second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un – which should spark bipartisan hope, given the threat posed by the core Pyongyang. ar arsenal. Yet last week, senior intelligence officials almost repudiated Trump's optimism that an agreement would be possible with the isolated state.

Skeptics might also note that Trump called for a reinforcement of infrastructure with Democrats in the state of the Union last year, but little has happened.

The speech should also contain information that will overshadow any conciliatory decision of the president.

Judging by his own mockery in recent days, he has no intention of evading his request for funding for his border. A delay is imminent in a wall that threatens to close the government.
  Trump refers to the action of a wall around the state of the Union

Trump said last week that he was considering talks in the House and Senate about compromise funding aimed at keeping the government opened after February 15 (19659032) as a "waste of time."

And he hinted that he would use the state of the Union to signal that he act executive – possibility of a declaration of national emergency for the construction of the wall.

"I do not do it" I mean. But you will hear the state of the Union and then, you will see what will happen right after the state of the Union, OK? "said Friday the president.

A way to break the national unity: build the wall

If Trump was planning to go from there Before and using executive power to build the border wall that was the emotional center of his appeal to voters in 2016, he would immediately undermine all calls for unity in his speech.

A new CBS poll Sunday revealed that a majority of Americans – 66% – say Trump should not declare a national emergency to build the wall if Congress refuses to fund it – and 73% of those polled want Trump continues negotiations while keeping the government open if he does not receive money by February 15.

While he was keeping Americans united on immigration, it probably would not make an extra effort. [19659014] The Washington Post reported between The Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, had told the President that a national emergency declaration would threaten the unity of the GOP coalition itself.

And a declaration of national emergency would be one of the most radical attempts to use executive power since President Harry S. Truman ordered the nationalization of steel mills during the Korean War .

Still, Trump has a political reason to go forward.

He often tested the limits of his power for two years at White House.

And the CBS poll showed that while a majority of Americans oppose an emergency declaration to build a wall if Congress does not fund it – 73% of Republicans support this statement. A week later, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said that he could not give it to his supporters during the closure.

"In recent weeks, [démocrates] brought their obstruction and radicalism to a whole new American level," Trump said in an email to his supporters on Sunday.

"First of all, they REFUSED put the security of Americans at our southern border over their own political interests, and then they prevented me from talking to the state of the United States. Union of Peoples at the Initial Date. "

Trump has rarely made much effort to expand his political coalition into office – but has shown a keen interest in his support among his political base and most keen Conservative commentators – politically about immigration.

So, if you have a choice between following up on his calls for national unity on Tuesday night and consolidating his support among the voters who value his presidency the most, it is not difficult to determine the path in which he is likely to go.

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