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T During her weekend, Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Officially launched her campaign for the presidency. Previously, she had already walked the trail in Iowa and had tried to reinforce her presence through videos on Beer and Acela.
Some Conservatives have been quick to bump her down as a candidate, especially because she is very liberal and America, we are told, is a "center-right" country. Others have pointed out his "incompatibility", to which Warren reacted by suggesting that "unattractive" is a political code for "woman".
But Warren's critics, of which I am a part, should not be so quick to assume that he will lose the primary election or, if it is proposed, the general election. Warren may not be our cup of tea, but she has a lot of strengths as a candidate, at least if you consider the electorate as it is, rather than what you wish maybe.
Let's say immediately that whatever rules have been in place in politics since Donald Trump was elected to the presidency, these rules are now out of date. People you think have no hope of winning an election can indeed win them. This is particularly the case when these people can pick up a ton of free TV coverage every day by doing things like tweeting, making ambient statements (about politics or whatever), or organizing massive gatherings for which people line up, hours in the rain or snow or extreme heat.
In 2016, it was Trump, and by 2020, it could easily be Warren's action. His "kickoff" in Iowa was well covered by the news of the cable, especially by MSNBC, a very important country in primary democracy. Her video on Instagram taking her a beer also received a ton of free media. Like the Acela video, even though half, like at least half of Trump's free media, was negative. Time will tell if she is as skilled as Trump in ensuring that cable and broadcasters literally give her several hours of unpaid antenna time – a day. But until now, it looks like it is. It's not like Warren did not get the attention of the TV before, anyway.
Warren also does not participate in this contest as a complete unknown, who must create his name identity from scratch.
Do not forget that in 2004, she had participated in the show "Oprah" to talk about personal finances.
Previously, she had already played a leading role in campaigns across the country. Alison Lundergan-Grimes and Natalie Tennant, respectively in Kentucky and West Virginia, two liberal countries, calculated in 2014 that an appearance at Warren was not a handicap for them. In 2018, Warren's approval of Democrat Andrew Janz, who ran against Devin Nunes in a very red neighborhood, was suspected of being fatal by the GOP's California strategists. However, Nunes won only 52.7% of the vote.
All this puts aside his enormous popularity with what was once called the "netroots", progressive activists online, whose support does not win or break a candidate, but certainly helps especially when it comes to winning primaries.
Warren will also be a fundraising engine. Last year, she was ready to be re-elected in a race where she had every interest in winning. Nevertheless, it has collected about 35 million dollars according to OpenSecrets.org. Of this amount, only $ 8.3 million was provided by donors who paid more than $ 200. By the end of the first quarter of 2018, nearly 99% of its donations had gone up to less than $ 100; 82% were for $ 25 or less. In the first 15 hours following the announcement of his presidential exploratory committee, Warren reportedly raised about $ 300,000.
Now, she is participating early in the race for the presidency. Not only does this mean that it has a large pool of small donors, but it also benefits from many months between the Iowa caucus and the caucuses in which they raise $ 5 or $ 10. This is an advantage that many other Democrats will not have, either because they do not have enough money to raise money, or because they will participate in the race later.
Contrary to what Warren fans claim, there is not much evidence to support the theory that money is the result of politics. But he can buy commercials and more valuable information about cable and social media, just to make sure that if the general public does not already perceive Warren enough as a matter of free and unsold media coverage he will once happen to advertise. the operation is in full swing.
But what about critics that Warren is too liberal? To be sure, she is far enough on the ideological spectrum. But his stance on issues such as trade, Afghanistan's withdrawal and drug prices are no different from Trump's. To the extent that they do, Warren is more skeptical of the trade and confirms to Big Pharma that Trump did not prove he was in power.
October 2018 According to Pew data, only 35% of citizens think that the United States has "largely succeeded" in Afghanistan. Not even 50% of Republicans, generally the most hawkish party, seem to think that we are winning.
A December Patient Patient Advocacy for Affordable Drugs Survey now suggests that the general public agrees with measures designed to lower prices for drugs that are not as clean as the market , this type of measures that Trump and Warren seem to favor.
Commercial skepticism is actually a potential hurdle for Warren in the Democratic primary. According to the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program, the counties that visited Hillary Clinton in 2016 were responsible for about 60 percent of all US exports. Pew data from 2018 show that 67% of Democrats and Democrats have a positive view of free trade agreements between the United States and other countries. About 63% oppose the increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum. June's quinnipia polls show that Republicans are the only demographic group that favors tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
But this underscores the point: to the extent that voters vote on issues, an undisputed proposition, Warren has the potential to grab the votes of skeptical independent traders and even disappointed or disappointed Republicans (Hell, as recently – reported by Mediaite, she was Republican until 1996). By 2020, many of them will not be "Never Trumpers" with libertarian or neoconservative tendencies, but rather people who enthusiastically supported Trump in 2016 because they love economic populism. but feel disappointed – especially in the event of an economic downturn. .
In reality, Warren is not completely crazy. While Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, DN.Y., and Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Advocate for a "Green New Deal" very costly and impossible to achieve as a way to get the job done. improving our environmental footprint, Warren calls (expect) publicly traded companies to disclose their carbon emissions. Although his government's ethics package has constitutional and conceptual flaws, voters rarely understand the nuance of these things and tend to view the government as corrupt. This will be particularly the case for a presidential cycle after Crooked Hillary was consistently and fairly called on by many Democratic voters, and after Trump, who himself has a lot of ethical scandals, was elected.
It would be nice for the Conservatives to make fun of Warren's candidacy, because it has really critical ideas on many subjects. Perhaps his worst problem is a Consumer Protection Bureau, which it deliberately designed to not account to elected officials. But the truth is that she could win the Democratic nomination and the 2020 general election.
Liz Mair ( @LizMair ) is the founder, owner and president of Mair Strategies LLC and a consultant GOP policy. She has long criticized Senator Elizabeth Warren and the Office of Consumer Finance Protection.
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