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The Belarusian president speaks more and more about the threat of the sovereignty of his country.
In early December, at a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Forum, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko publicly challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin. The reason was the price of Russian gas for Belarussians, because, according to Lukashenka, it is overestimated, while Putin talks about preferential conditions for Belarus in this case.
Subsequently, Lukashenka stated that in private conversations with them asking pardon for each other, but criticizing the Russian media that they mishandled his remarks .
So it is unlikely that anyone would imagine that for a month the conflict between Belarus and Russia would become so serious that it could even threaten the sovereignty of Belarus. Moreover, these statements do not come from experts or journalists, but from Lukashenka himself. And more than once. According to him, the coming years will be very difficult for his country because it will be " to stay on the tooth ."
Russia stepped up its activities in the Treaty on the Establishment of a State of the Union from 1999, according to which Federation and Belarus must create a confederation with a single political, economic, military, customs, monetary, judicial, cultural and other. In fact, it means merging the two countries into one state. And for the huge territory of Russia, it does not look like an association, but rather a membership. Almost all Belarussian and Russian political experts are confident – the Kremlin has begun active work to prepare for the capture of Belarus.
Experts and political scientists have many reasons why Russia has activated this issue now and what economic and geopolitical goals are following their next pressure on their neighbors. However, we can distinguish five.
1. Increased pressure on Ukraine
The common borders of Ukraine and Belarus are 975 kilometers. Since the beginning of the Russian aggression in 2014, the Russian-Ukrainian border is a painful point for the Ukrainian armed forces. Near the border, Russian troops often like to shake hands with weapons and, through an uncontrolled area in the East, provide military support to the militants of the terrorist "A / DNR".
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly assured that Russian troops from his country will never leave Ukraine. guarantee on this site. However, in the case of the accession of Belarus, Ukraine will receive a line of almost a thousand kilometers, which could potentially enter the Russian troops.
Ukrainian experts and journalists are already struggling and urging the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense to prepare for such developments. At the same time, it is thought that a large-scale invasion from the north is not too willful.
"As for Belarus as a stepping stone for a large-scale offensive against Ukraine, this is not particularly convenient, because we happily divide the Polissia, and Polissya does not. is not a very comfortable theater, military operations – forests, swamps, inconveniences, "says the coordinator of the group" Information Resistance "and the People's Deputy of Ukraine, Dmytro Timchuk.
Meanwhile, he points out that Lukashenka's "declared friendship" with Ukraine in the face of Russian pressure can immediately change. "Belarus is not a friendly state for us today, so we must now think of strengthening our borders and, in general, our military capabilities in this direction," said the People's Deputy.
Political analysts and leader of the All-Ukrainian initiative "The Movement of the Creative State" Dmytro Sinchenko share a slightly different opinion. On the contrary, he calls on the Ukrainian army to help Belarus to oppose Russia.
"Belarussians must understand that, despite everything, they still have an ally – Ukraine, and our armed forces must now have a defense plan of Belarus – and not only that we have a lot more reasons to consider the Belarusians as true "fraternal peoples", unlike the Russians, not only because we have a common history, not only because it is our economic partner, but mostly through 1084 kilometers from the common border.The independence of a neighboring country More than a thousand kilometers can become another front of the war with the Kremlin, and from Belarus to Kiev – only 100 kilometers ", – said Sinchenko [19659003TotheproblemoftheUkrainian-RussianborderyoucanaddaborderwiththeunrecognizedTransnistriawhereareRussianpeacekeepersandtheborderwithHungaryknownforitspro-RussianstanceandwhichcanprovokeseparatistsentimentinTranscarpathiaaswellasanadministrativeborderwiththeannexedCrimeafromwhichRussiarigorouslyconstitutesarealmilitarybaseThusUkraineisalmostinasemicircleontheborderofwhichwillbeRussiantroopsreadyforanoffensiveThiswillforcetheUkrainianauthoritiestotakeacloserlookattheissueofbordercontrolandthecostofequipmentdefensivebarriers
2. Kaliningrad Corridor and provocation of NATO
The Kaliningrad region is a Russian city that has existed in Europe since the Second World War and is surrounded on all sides by EU Member States. Russia does not have a land corridor leading to this region, but because of this, the Russians must use air transport or obtain a Schengen visa to travel to the territory of Russia. Although the Kaliningrad region does not have a common border with Belarus, it is only separated by the Suwalki corridor, which extends for 100 kilometers.
This part of Poland's and Lithuania's borders with NATO is considered the most vulnerable, as the capture of this corridor by Russia will cut off other allies of Latvia, Lithuania and Russia. Estonia, which will create good conditions for Russia to land with the Kaliningrad region.
"The Russian army has such a notion that the" Belarusian balcony ", a kind of" protrusion. "The territory of Belarus and the borders on the territory of the EU – Poland, the Baltic countries – have a vast foreigner This is an opportunity to place military forces along the northern border of Ukraine, "- said Belarusian journalist Denis Lavnikevych. adds that, in the event of the termination of the agreement on medium and long-range missiles in the territory of Belarus, it would be possible to install Russian strategic weapons.
experts, the presence of a buffer zone of Belarus, Ukraine and the Caucasus between Russia and NATO is important, a security point of view and a guarantee for the smallest conflicts At the same time, Russia aspires to exert constant pressure on NATO and can, at the same time, this end, resort to the capture of Belorussia.
"Moscow aims to transform Belarus into a" gray zone "- an area of instability, a source of risk and threat to neighboring countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, Poland) and at the same time – military-strategic bridgehead of the Russian Federation confronted with the EU and NATO "- – says Arseniy Syvitsky, director of the Mine Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy (Mine).
The need to supply gas to the Kaliningrad region is another reason for pressure on Belarus. This is due to gas pipelines in the territory of Lithuania and Belarus and Russia has to pay for the transit. However, in early 2019, the LNG terminal was opened in the region and, according to Gazprom chairman Alexei Miller, Russia could supply gas to Kaliningrad, putting an end to deliveries via Lithuania and Belarus.
"Dear Vladimir, You have defined, – to ensure an autonomous supply of gas guaranteed from the sea of the Kaliningrad region, is fulfilled," Miller told Putin.
Thus, the seizure of Belarus could be a strategic step for the Kremlin in a geopolitical confrontation with the country we NATO and plans for future expansion in other countries of the world [19659031] map of the possible frontiers of Russia after the capture of Belorussia ” class=”img img-responsive center-block” data-src=”https://img.tsn.ua/cached/1547564089/tsn-471c1e8f46d3594337c6f6226982b912/thumbs/x/7a/a7/acb3e3f0ef1a3f5607f71c2cd33ea77a.jpeg”/>
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3. Continuation of the regime of Putin
2024 in Russia, there will be another presidential election. At that time, President Putin will be 72 years old and, according to the constitution, he will not be allowed to run for a third term. Putin might not wait to return to this post in six years. This is why the Kremlin is currently working on ways to legally leave Putin in power after 2024. And one of these methods is the creation of the State of the Union, on which he will move.
"The treaty, signed in late 1999, provides for a new constitution and, if you wish, Putin can actually start what is called" from scratch. "Russia is actually considering this scenario as an option to stay in power ", – stresses Belarusian journalist Denis Lavnikevich.
This is what worries most the West, as evidenced by the publication of major Western media. Belarus is constantly criticized for the authoritarian Lukashenka regime, but Putin's regime is worse for them than dictatorial.
"Belarusians are not only about to lose their independence, moreover Moscow may be on the verge of obtaining, once again, a state of its own.Putin has already described the l & # 39; collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest political catastrophe of the twentieth century: it is understandable that the Russian imperial capital, which absorbs and outweighs many countries, form the opinion of the USSR. the Russian political elite about itself, its neighbors and its place in the world. lo, in the twenty-first century, he tried to trace it, "- writes in his column, the Washington Post reporter Anne Appelbaum
, in the case of the creation of such a state is left open and the role that she Lukashenko .. As for Putin, he may waive a number of his powers, but leave the key. [19659003] "Today the Kremlin needs a profound transformation of the Russian legislation that I do not allow Vladimir Putin to remain in this position after 2024. In case of formation of an alliance between Russia and Belarus, the problem of "Putin-2024" will be solved, and our people will probably not angry at the ruse of the ruler, but will also rejoice at the expansion of the limits of his great power, "says Rosbalt in his memoir. Scientific Director of the Research Center for the Modernization of European Universities in St. Petersburg, Dmitry Travin.
According to him, Lukashenka could be the president of Belarus, and Medvedev will again be the president of the Russian Federation. At the same time, Putin will receive the supranational position of the head of all the states of the Union.
"And Putin, as a slave in the galleys, will himself assume a very honorable function as Secretary-General." The Russians will pay the modesty of a leader willing to work not a secretary for the benefit of our peoples, while the "secretary" will be handed over by the armed forces, the FSB, the FSO, the RGG and, possibly, the prosecutor's office with the inquiry commission, "explains Travin.
Putin will therefore continue to rule Russia and in addition will bring navshy self Belarus.
4. Extension of the territory
One of the reasons the The most common, but not the last, is simply the creation of new territories.From the point of view of geopolitics, they are important to promote their interests in Europe and put pressure on the EU.In particular, military bases can be built in the territory of Belarus, strategic weapons and direct clashes with the NATO troops at the border
At the same time, an increase in its own territory is a possible plan of the Kremlin for the next increase in the Putin index, as was already the case in Ukraine in 2014. year Currently, due to pension reform and economic and social problems, the support of the Russian president is declining constant.
"It is obvious that the Kremlin has no intention of suppressing the imperial agenda and will not withdraw the imperial agenda, so Putin will need new adventures in of foreign policy and new victories, the term is in Belarus, I do not think that electric operations are planned in Belarus, here is the strategy of a long-term siege, "said Belorussian journalist Igor Ilyash
possibility of capturing Belarus as a means of raising odds. Gu in the West does not believe too much. According to some experts, this resource was completely depleted after the capture of Crimea in 2014.
"The territorial capture program has been completely exhausted by the adventures between Crimea and Ukraine and their sad consequences. better, Belarus is not Crimea, but in general, The Russians, poorer country of Russia, that Russia will have to feed and hold ", stresses in the comments the professor of foreign policy of the School of State policy of the Academy of National Economy and Public Administration headed by the President of the Russian Federation, Katerina Shulman.
In addition, Russia is represented by a number of well-known industrial and agricultural centers in Belarus, as well as by almost 10 million people, who can potentially be employed as labor or to increase the size of the country. # 39; army.
5. Blackmail of Belarus
In fact, such statements and serious work can do Russia to make Belarus, which is gradually losing its own orbit. Belarusian authorities have recently begun to intensify their relations with the EU and the United States. In particular, Belarus actively participates in the work of the Eastern Partnership and the Four of Visegrad. In addition, the long ban imposed on a certain number of American diplomats in the country was canceled.
"In Minsk, it is understood that if they can not establish stable relations with several world leaders, especially with the European Union In the current political upheaval, the Russians can deprive us of our sovereignty", says Evgeniy Preigerman, head of the Belarusian think tank Minsk Dialogue in Foreign Policy.
In fact, the Russian Federation has already deployed its huge propaganda device aimed at threatening the public and discrediting Belarus. In particular, Russian TV channels, according to a similar scenario in 2014, have already begun to talk about Belarusian Russophobes and "the protection of the Russian-speaking population". The main propagandist, Dmitry Kiselev, generally threatened to extinguish Belorussia.
"Russia is now frightening Lukashenka." It seems that Russia can lose its ally, of course we do not want it categorically. "But if Minsk decides to stay without Russia, his future will certainly not be the same., Of course, will weaken, but Belarus simply will not do it" – he said in a press release broadcast on Russian television.
Similar information has also begun to be broadcast and popular Telegram political channels in Russia. In particular, the channel "NESYGAR" actively disseminates information on the huge financial problems of Belarus related to the conflict with Russia and fiscal maneuvers. As a result, the panicked political elites in the country seem to be taking their capital off the coast so as not to lose it in Russia's takeover.
Russian Ambassador Mikhail Babich is actively working on the news front. Previously, he wanted to be ambassador to Ukraine, but Kiev categorically refused to accept it. Unofficially, Babic is called "the war ambassador" because he is military in the field of education. In addition, a number of Russian experts report that Babic is currently coordinating his work in Belarus directly with the Kremlin and not with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. At his appointment, the Belarusian edition of "Our Niva" wrote that Babich had repeatedly received important appointments in problem areas. In particular, under his supervision, a post-war referendum took place in Chechnya, following which he became the subject of the Russian Federation. He also led at one time the State Commission of the Russian Federation for chemical disarmament (which actually followed the chemical evolution of Russia).
Крім цього, величезну кількість коштів у Білорусь інвестує Китай, створюючи спільні проекти та надаючи пільгові кредити.
"Станом на 2013 рік понад 87% кредитного портфеля Білорусі припадали на російський Мінфін або ж на Євразійський банк розвитку (ключову роль в якому теж відіграє РФ) Якщо подивитися навіть на січень 2017 фактично за 3 роки частка російських кредитів впала до 45-47% Таким чином, за три роки Білорусь рефінансувала кредитний портфель, суттєво зменшивши частку Російської Федерації ", -.. пояснює експерт і аналітик Українськ го інституту майбутнього Ігор Тишкевич.
За його словами, білоруська економіка починає прямувати в більшу залежність від Китаю, з одного боку, і відходить з виняткової ролі РФ як загальної держави, від якої вона залежить, з іншого.
"Кредитний рейтинг Білорусі для Китаю, згідно з китайським рейтинговим компаніям, 3А-, рівень високий Відповідно це будуть дешеві і довгі гроші, щоправда, в обмеженій кількості. – не більше 800 млн доларів, проте це компенсує "податковий маневр" у всякому разі він не буде впливати на графік виплат за зовнішні ми боргами. Так, зменшиться темп зростання економіки, але такої речі як дефолт – не буде "-. Зазначив експерт
Відео
" Я розумію ці натяки : отримаєте нафту, але руйнуйте країну і входьте до складу Росії "- так цього тижня Лукашенко відверто розказав про свої розмови з Москвою Під дахом російського посольства під прикриттям дипломатичного імунітету в Мінську зараз працюють ті ж високопоставлені агенти спецслужб, які 2014 року були в. Києві і готували гі ридну війну проти України.
Все це витягує білоруську економіку із тотальної залежності від Росії, намагаючись створити альтернативні союзницькі відносини із іншими світовими центрами, окрім Москви. А для повернення впливу на Білорусь або створення там нестабільних осередків для подальших перемовин Росія може вдатися до будь-яких заходів, як це вже було зроблено в Україні в 2014 році.
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